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Friday, January 29, 2016

I was watching that all the way to close.....

Ok, here is my analysis on today. I waited until the end of the day to see if I could pull it out and it wouldnt roll over. Lets take a look.

Now as you are aware, I blogged that I found a pattern that the premarket tended to be a sparkline for the open day coming up. You can look back over the last two days and see that post. Now for today:


It didnt really follow. Or did it? I was having some problems following live time. Do you see right to the right of the day chart the morning gap that I circled? I thought that was still a continuation of the gap, and I was looking for things to drop like in the spark-chart looking premarket.
In order to correct this, I am going to set a hardline time that all gap fades are done 40-45 min after open. If I had looked at it from THAT perspective, I wouldn't be waiting for the gap to drop further, instead I would have looked toward the next peak, even if it were a bit lower. Also for now, its looking like afternoon trading is dangerous as the sparkline (premarkets) arent particularly following the line after 1pm to close. Unless of course the premarket sparkline opened down from the previous days close. Then there tends to be a drop.

This is a work in progress. But I think once I snap the sheets taught this is going to purr. Stumble with me for a few days next week, and once I got this, well then, I think Ill really have something that you'll want to forward to your trading friends.

So..40-45 min after market open the fade is finished, and I should look to the next peak/valley for support. If I see a peak in the sparkline afterwards, its buy a call. If I see a dive in the sparkline, the opposite, especially if the premarkets were lower than previous days close. Complicated, but hammering it out. Have a good weekend.

Tradinginsider

Ok, now we are going to add on

Now we are going to add on another put and hold it until the last hr of trading...

QQQ Jan 2016 103.500 put (QQQ160129P00103500)

 -OPR  
0.20 Down 1.53(88.44%) 1:47PM EST
Prev Close:1.73
Open:1.58
Bid:0.19
Ask:0.20
Strike:103.50
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:0.19 - 1.58
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:5,415
Open Interest:6,373











Hopefully this comes back around

Tradinginsider

Purchase dayput

We are going to go ahead and purchase a dayput and hold this for about an hour, hour and a half or so.

QQQ Jan 2016 103.000 put (QQQ160129P00103000)

-OPR
0.50 Down 1.56(75.73%) 10:10AM EST
Prev Close:2.06
Open:1.20
Bid:0.47
Ask:0.50
Strike:103.00
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:0.49 - 1.22
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:2,127
Open Interest:23,919
Stay tuned for any reverse-ups.

Tradinginsider

ok, here is what the map says

At about 9:35 Chicago time we are going to purchase a put. The market should drop a bit then we are going to reverse with a daycall and then hold that until about 1230 or so. Then we are going to reverse again and go with a dayput and hold that until about 130. And that is our plan for today...so you might want to sign up on my twitter marklaechel@tradecontrarian for immediate up to day orders. At this time, just follow me to see how I do with this new system....


Tradinginsider

outlook for today


Thursday, January 28, 2016

Lets talk today...

How is everybody this evening. Its evening in Chicago and I think I am going to run out and get some Burger King before the Republican Debate tonight 35 minutes from now. I watched the Democratic Debate a few days ago and now I hear tonight Trump is doing the equivalent of sitting in the car angry with his arms folded and not coming out until Megan apologizes to him. I know he is going to do a seperate thing the same time, but to tell you the truth Megan is just going to sit there and be attractive and gloat like a sorority girl that Trump backed out because of her. All the other candidates are gonna slam him as well and he wont even be able to tweet back live because he will be otherwise engaged at his own appearance.
On the one hand he shows strength by keeping his word and not showing up at another Fox event with Megan Kelly.
On the other hand he looks weak because he ducked. He doesnt like Megan so he hides? Also it gives oxygen back in the room to Cruz, who is now center stage. Smart? I dont think it was a good idea for a no show. It just gives more attention to the new front runner on the stage. In this day and age of instant information and social media people have a short attention span.

Those are my thoughts for tonight, I have been following the election thing pretty closely. Im not going to go any further into my political leanings. They once asked Bill Gates in the late 90s if he is for or against abortion. His answer? None of your business, I am here to talk about Microsoft, I dont make any comments on its stock price or any personal non business views. And thats smart. Why alienate half your audience? I think Bill was right on. His business was computers.

Onto what happened today with my new test drive. I noticed that the gap fade took an extra half an hour than expected, so I just waited it out for a bit then jumped in. I then exited again and made almost nothing after commissions. I then got into a dayput at .85 and exited at .96 for an 11% profit. We then bought another put for .92 then exited very soon thereafter at 1.01 for a profit of 8%.
Not too bad, a 19% profit for the day. I am still hammering out the sparkline predictor as a template for the upcoming day based on the premarkets, but I think I have something special here. Imagine if I made 19% a day. Then start compounding it.

I will see you 5 minutes before Market open with an advance chart for the upcoming day.

Tradinginsider


No orders

Have a nice night. Made the money today. No end of day opps. Come back later for a wrap up of the day.


Tradinginsider

exit that last 45min dayput with 7% profit

We are going to exit that dayput with 7% profit.

QQQ Jan 2016 102.000 put (QQQ160129P00102000)

-OPR
1.05 Down 0.73(41.01%) 3:02PM EST
Prev Close:1.78
Open:0.97
Bid:1.00
Ask:1.02
Strike:102.00
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:0.75 - 2.05
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:10,961
Open Interest:18,640
Not too shabby! I will have a market overview after close. No other orders for today.

I really like this system with the premarket showing the sparkline of whats going to happen in the following trading day. I suggest you go back and read it. Very astounding. It looks like I have a crystal ball before the day starts as to what will happen that day with this. Another post later tonight after close...

Tradinginsider

Lets try this last hour drop....

Ok, now Im going for the final hour drop....our entry is below...

QQQ Jan 2016 102.000 put (QQQ160129P00102000)

-OPR
0.83 Down 0.95(53.37%) 2:43PM EST
Prev Close:1.78
Open:0.97
Bid:0.91
Ask:0.93
Strike:102.00
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:0.75 - 2.05
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:10,876
Open Interest:18,640
Come on back last 10 minutes for orders.

Tradinginsider

Exit dayput

Now we exit the dayput for 15% profit

QQQ Jan 2016 102.000 put (QQQ160129P00102000)

-OPR
0.97 Down 0.81(45.51%) 1:00PM EST
Prev Close:1.78
Open:0.97
Bid:0.97
Ask:1.00
Strike:102.00
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:0.83 - 2.05
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:9,026
Open Interest:18,640
Check back a bit later

Tradinginsider

Dayput issued

Issueing a dayput, will hold about 1hr-hr and a half.

QQQ Jan 2016 102.000 put (QQQ160129P00102000)

-OPR
0.85 Down 0.93(52.25%) 12:38PM EST
Prev Close:1.78
Open:0.97
Bid:0.84
Ask:0.85
Strike:102.00
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:0.85 - 2.05
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:8,748
Open Interest:18,640
Check back then

Tradinginsider

exit first daycall for profit

Exit the daycall for profit:

QQQ Jan 2016 100.000 call (QQQ160129C00100000)

-OPR
2.20 Up 0.63(40.13%) 12:31PM EST
Prev Close:1.57
Open:2.50
Bid:2.14
Ask:2.18
Strike:100.00
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:1.20 - 2.53
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:2,128
Open Interest:2,414
I am going to be reversing this now stay tuned...


Tradinginsider

purchase QQQ calls

good morning...Purchase QQQ calls

QQQ Jan 2016 100.000 call (QQQ160129C00100000)

-OPR
2.06 Up 0.49(31.21%) 10:19AM EST
Prev Close:1.57
Open:2.50
Bid:2.08
Ask:2.11
Strike:100.00
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:2.06 - 2.53
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:397
Open Interest:2,414

We are going to sit on this a bit and see what happens

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

I was staring at the data and then I was thunderstruck...

Do you remember that show about 12 years ago called 'Early Edition'? (https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=early+edition)
It was this show about this guy who one day got up and found a newspaper laying in front of his apartment door. He picked it up and took a look at it and right away noticed that the paper was dated wrong...it was tomorrows date. He looked at the headlines. Nothing he heard on the news this morning. It must be a gag paper. One of the headlines screamed about some disaster in town. Nothing on the news about it. So he went to work. The next day he woke up, and opened his door, and sure enough there was another newspaper, also dated a day ahead with headlines about events he didnt recognize. He then made some coffee and switched on the TV. The talking head on the news was excitedly reporting about a disaster downtown. The disaster that the paper from yesterday was talking about. He ran to grab the paper from yesterday that he put aside and stared at it. What the?
Well I feel that the same thing just happened to me. I was sitting here frustrated, staring at the data for the last 5 days trying to put it together, perhaps different frames? A big picture? Segmented focus on macro and or micro? I was really burning up some brain cells. But I like a challange. I got up to refresh my coffee, I then drove my car to the shop and rode back with someone else. Refreshed, I sat back down to work on it. 
Then it hit me. I am not pumping this up, I mean look below and tell me what you see. What I have is a chart of the last five days. The chart below is also semented into time periods within those 5 days. Note you see a moon, a 4 oclock face, and a sun. ( You can look at the same chart below this one. Its the same just without any annotations by me and its larger so you can really examine it.) Yahoo begins the chart with the premarket of this stock at 4am, or where you see the 4am clock face. The premarket goes all the way until open, where it is marked with a sunshine icon. The day goes all the way until close, which is marked by the moon icon. Between the moon icon and the 4am clockface is the aftermarket, immediately after the openday. Right after the 4am icon, time jumps to the next day at 4am.
Now. Look everywhere I have circled below. This is the premarket for QQQ. Not the dow futures, S+p futures, just the Premarket for the QQQ. What do you notice about the circled premarkets? THEY ARE ALMOST AN EXACT ROADMAP OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN LATER DURING OPEN HOURS THAT DAY, JUST COMPRESSED INTO THE 3.5 HRS IN THE PREMARKET. It almost looks like a sparkline of something that already happened, but it didnt happen yet.


My general rules still apply about possibly reversing at 12 and fading the gap for the first half hour. But hey, not a problem with what I discovered above is it? Especially if this keeps going.


Now look at this again full size without any of my annotations:

That old trader from the late 70's early 80's who would by at open only if the premarkets were up 15 minutes before open might find this a bit more precise. Again, since that guy was trading computers have taken over the market, with flash trading, and other programs. Its a different ballgame now. But this really stuns me. 
I am pretty damn excited to take this out for a test drive tomorrow. 
Ok, see you a half hour after open! You might want to take a look at this post again to really let this sink in. I dont know why the hell this is happening, its like I just found a portal in my closet to Narnia. Thats how freaked out this is. I mean, the market gives me a blueprint for the day right before the day starts??
I hope this is not a statistical fluke. If it is, so be it, I will find something else, because I really like digging my teeth into problems like this. Especially if I can get an edge.

See you tomorrow. It very well might just be the first day of something wild.

Tradinginsider

No end of day orders

Thats it for today. Total gain:9%. We will continue this system tomorrow and see how it goes!

Tradinginsider

So how did I do today?

I think its pretty damn good that even though I eeked out a 10 percent profit today, that was with the system ignoring the premarket direction early this morning. Usually the premarkets set the days trading. If the premarkets were UP this morning, and I traded off of that, I would have made about 50 percent today.
Well, a win is a win, and I will be constantly be tweaking this. For example, I did not reverse today at noon like my template says, because seeing that things were going the other way on me, noon itself was the reversal, so i just held. That means there is usually a reversal at noon. Seeing that I was the wrong way in the morning, I was already the right way after the reversal. Come back in about an hour to see if there is any end of day action via my post last evening with my new revised rules.

Tradinginsider

Exit second dayput for even money

We exit the second put for even money and just get out today with approx 9-10% gain.

QQQ Jan 2016 101.500 put (QQQ160129P00101500)

-OPR
1.11 Up 0.37(50.00%) 2:19PM EST
Prev Close:0.74
Open:0.75
Bid:1.09
Ask:1.11
Strike:101.50
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:0.66 - 1.31
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:1,966
Open Interest:5,294
I will get into analysis on todays events in a post after market close.

Tradinginsider

Exit first 9:15 daycall option

We exit the first daycall option with a 11% gain:

QQQ Jan 2016 101.500 put (QQQ160129P00101500)

-OPR
1.09 Up 0.35(47.30%) 2:13PM EST
Prev Close:0.74
Open:0.75
Bid:1.05
Ask:1.08
Strike:101.50
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:0.66 - 1.31
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:1,822
Open Interest:5,294
Hold for about 30 min and we will see what happens with the other one...

I am going to hold these two puts

I know that I said to reverse the call about now but it seems that it topped right about the time of noon here in chicago and that it ITSELF is the reversal. So I am going to go ahead and hold onto these until about 2pm chicago time.

Still trying to hammer this new system out.

Tradinginsider

ok, lets shore this up

We are going to shore up that put option

QQQ Jan 2016 101.500 put (QQQ160129P00101500)

-OPR
1.10 Up 0.36(48.65%) 11:15AM EST
Prev Close:0.74
Open:0.75
Bid:1.12
Ask:1.14
Strike:101.50
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:0.75 - 1.31
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:1,369
Open Interest:5,294
Now we are in with a multi in DD we are going to hold until about 12:20 Chicago time.

Tradinginsider

Purchase QQQ puts

Purchase QQQ puts

QQQ Jan 2016 101.500 put (QQQ160129P00101500)

-OPR
0.96 Up 0.22(29.73%) 9:53AM EST
Prev Close:0.74
Open:0.75
Bid:0.95
Ask:0.96
Strike:101.50
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:0.75 - 0.96
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:457
Open Interest:5,294
I will check back again in an hour and a half

Tradinginsider

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

papa's got a brand new bag

Ive been pouring over the data and retooling things. Check out the past 5 days and look at the pattern that emerges:

Certain things are happening everyday based on what the premarkets are indicating before open. Above, I made some annotations. A is when the market opens. It almost always fades the gap as buy or sell orders are built up from the early morning and from the night before. B is my new entry point almost everyday 1/2 hour after market open. After a half hour past open, all the buy and sell orders from before open are executed, and now the market should go in the direction indicated by the premarkets being up or down 15 minutes before market open. 
So: everyday I will look at the markets 15 minutes before market open and find out if the premarkets are positive or negative. Then when the markets open I will sit out for 30 minutes. 

If: The market during the first 30 minutes goes the opposite way of the premarkets direction at 30 minutes into the trading day I will buy a put or call (matching the premarkets indicated direction positive or negative) and hold that position until 11:15-11:30 Chicago time. I will then exit that position and reverse it until 2:00pm chicago time and then sit out for the rest of the day.

If: The Market during the first 30 minutes goes the same way as the direction indicated by the premarkets, as in if 15 minutes before open the premarkets say positive and then the market goes positive and the inverse if negative premarkets and the market goes neg for the first 30 minutes, I will then purchase a put or call going the same direction as the markets. I will check back at 1030-45 and if that put or call went against me, I will SHORE IT UP with another put or call of the same direction, essentially making it a DD. I will then exit my position at 1:15-11:30 and reverse it with a put or call going the other way and exit THAT at about 2pm Chicago time.

Again adjust the times for where you are in the country (or the world for that matter).

If you are in L.A., minus two hours off all the times I gave. If in Mountain time, minus 1 hour off my times and if in NY add one hour.

I was thinking. Here in Chicago the markets open at 8:30am. Thats cool. In NY they open at 9:30. Thats cool too. But in L.A? The markets open at 6:30 in the morning? Thats harsh. Traders that work out there have to get up at what, 4 in the morning? Brutal.

So I am all hype on this new deal. I saw where I was going wrong and for now I will not be buying at the end of the day. It used to be several months ago I could call it using technical analysis at the end of the day, but we are now in a heavy news cycle. Even with Asian markets crashing last night and reversal candles in the market yesterday, all it took was positive news on oil this morning and the market rocketed up leaving technical analysis in the dust. So be it. In order to be a good trader, you have to constantly back-test and reevaluate your strategies. No opponent in the ring is going to keep doing the same thing, they will adapt, and I have to as well.

Now what about technical analysis? Can I still use it? Yes, but with a bigger picture not on a day to day thing. Ill show you what I mean.

Now for my longer game that I can still use technical analysis on a couple of things:

1. Evident tops or bottoms as signaled by candles.On the candle chart itself, you can see 3 circles where there were bottoms. The candle has a long bottom tail. Also the upper left arrow I drew is also a top candle with a big top tail.
2. Now for the arrows, these are Engulfing Candles. They are bigger than the entire candle and engulf it from the day before. This means the market will go the same direction that the engulfing candle is colored. If the candle is white, the market is going up and if the candle is red as an engulfing candle, then the market is dropping.
3. Here is a big indicator. The Aroon indicator on the bottom. Note what happens over 90% of the time where there is a green/red crossover...a HUGE corresponding move in the price movement of the QQQ. (Just follow any point straight up into the candlestick price chart...all these indicators are alligned with the time pricing at any given part of the indicator chart.) If I get no clear signal? i stick to my aforementioned day game. 

We start tomorrow. 

Tradinginsider

exit daycall

we make a bit off the dayput, almost balancing out the daycall from earlier.

QQQ Jan 2016 103.500 put (QQQ160129P00103500)

-OPR
1.66 Down 0.45(21.33%) 2:36PM EST
Prev Close:2.11
Open:1.77
Bid:1.56
Ask:1.58
Strike:103.50
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:1.32 - 2.33
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:2,023
Open Interest:6,959
It has occured to me that since we are in a 20% news cycle my technical analysis is currently not effective. For example, yesterday I said that the market is going to drop because the candles show it. Also Asia had a bad night last night. Makes sense that the market should drop today, right?

No. Before open there was good news on oil so today the market ignored the technicals, and ignored the Asian markets and took off.

I think I am going to change what Im doing here and go with what the premarkets indicate a half hour after open and just go with that direction until about 12:30 chicago time 4 hrs after open. I will revert to the other way once I feel we are out of the news cycle.

I am going to go over some data later tonight and backtest this. Thus, no more orders today and no end of day orders today. See you tomorrow a half hour after market open.

Tradinginsider

daycall reversal

sell this daycall

QQQ Jan 2016 103.000 call (QQQ160129C00103000)

-OPR
1.45 Up 0.36(33.03%) 12:54PM EST
Prev Close:1.09
Open:1.19
Bid:1.45
Ask:1.47
Strike:103.00
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:0.90 - 1.55
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:9,963
Open Interest:5,267
and purchase this dayput

QQQ Jan 2016 103.500 put (QQQ160129P00103500)

-OPR
1.47 Down 0.64(30.33%) 12:55PM EST
Prev Close:2.11
Open:1.77
Bid:1.48
Ask:1.50
Strike:103.50
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:1.40 - 2.33
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:1,631
Open Interest:6,959
Stay tuned for another two hours

There was a reversal on the annoucement of oil...


Tradinginsider

daycall issued

Right back into that option again as a daycall.

QQQ Jan 2016 103.000 call (QQQ160129C00103000)

-OPR
1.53 Up 0.44(40.37%) 12:20PM EST
Prev Close:1.09
Open:1.19
Bid:1.51
Ask:1.53
Strike:103.00
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:0.90 - 1.55
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:9,054
Open Interest:5,267
Lets see what this does today.

Tradinginsider
I am closing out the spread from last week with an out today on the call side of it.

QQQ Jan 2016 103.000 call (QQQ160129C00103000)

-OPR
1.39 Up 0.30(27.52%) 12:05PM EST
Prev Close:1.09
Open:1.19
Bid:1.41
Ask:1.43
Strike:103.00
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:0.90 - 1.42
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:9,039
Open Interest:5,267
News today is screwing things up with oil. The technicals had a clear drop signal, but we are in that 20 percent news cycle where technicals are overridden. I will be back in a bit.


Tradinginsider

Monday, January 25, 2016

So how did I do today?

Seemed like a walk sideways. Nothing on the overnight, and nothing on the dayput, depending on when you got around to executing it, or maybe a sliver of profit if you executed 15 min after my issue.

A general crap day overall, not enough movement. I now have two options hanging out there. I will go over this later this evening and my plans on how Im going to deal with that. The first thing is todays call side from last nights spread. I will be able to recover some of that tomorrow and hopefully the DD put yeilds some fruit.

Have a good drive home from work. Things will pick up.

Tradinginsider

End of day order

Charts showing double hammer reversal. Therefore Im going to issue end of day put, this one a double down.

QQQ Jan 2016 102.000 put (QQQ160129P00102000)

-OPR
1.35 Up 0.39(40.63%) 3:37PM EST
Prev Close:0.96
Open:0.95
Bid:1.33
Ask:1.30
Strike:102.00
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:0.64 - 1.35
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:7,648
Open Interest:20,125
That will be all for today, get that in before close, or paper trade it.

Tradinginsider

Exit Dayput

We are going to exit our dayput for a slight loss

QQQ Jan 2016 103.500 put (QQQ160129P00103500)

-OPR
1.45 Down 0.09(5.84%) 2:17PM EST
Prev Close:1.54
Open:1.66
Bid:1.44
Ask:1.45
Strike:103.50
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:1.13 - 1.66
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:4,049
Open Interest:5,818
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Currency in USD.
Turns out there just wasnt any volitility today, through last night or the day today.

Come on back 10 minutes before close, lets see if we can rustle anything for tomorrow.

Tradinginsider


Not enough volitility

I am having some problems due to things not moving enough one way or the other. We are going to hold onto this dayput for a another hour or so and see what shakes out with it, and then I will be back on for the last 15 minutes of the day.

Its just a waiting game from here.

Tradinginsider

dayput issued

Dayput to be purchaed today:

QQQ Jan 2016 103.500 put (QQQ160129P00103500)

-OPR
1.54 0.00(0.00%) 11:10AM EST
Prev Close:1.54
Open:1.66
Bid:1.52
Ask:1.54
Strike:103.50
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:1.34 - 1.66
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:1,501
Open Interest:5,818
That will be all, I will watch for reversals...

Tradinginsider

dump QQQ DD puteven money

Dump the QQQ put DD even money

QQQ Jan 2016 103.000 call (QQQ160129C00103000)

-OPR
1.82 Down 0.12(6.19%) 9:47AM EST
Prev Close:1.94
Open:1.68
Bid:1.79
Ask:1.82
Strike:103.00
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:1.68 - 1.84
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:216
Open Interest:4,729
We will wait to see what happens further, along with a possible daycall/put.

Tradinginsider

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Monday

I would like to correct an error on Fridays spread. What I meant to say for the DD puts were:

QQQ Jan 2016 103.500 put (QQQ160129P00103500)

-OPR
1.54 Down 1.76(53.33%) Jan 22
Prev Close:3.30
Open:2.14
Bid:1.51
Ask:1.54
Strike:103.50
Expire Date:29-Jan-16
Day's Range:1.49 - 2.17
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:3,617
Open Interest:4,997
What I had put down were puts that were going to expire in 10 minutes at the end of the day. It was a mistake, I was talking about puts that would expire in a week. I copied and pasted the wrong graphic, I hope you guys caught that. As in, 'he possibily coudlnt be telling me to hold a put over the weekend that expires in 10 minutes.' Watch me people. Sometimes especially at the end of day I am rushing as I have 2 minutes to put something up.

Now for Monday, what do I expect. The technicals say that on a gap up, things are strong and will go up for a while from there. Look what happened on the last gap up on Oct 21st of last year: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=qqq 
There was a gap up and things kept going from there. However this time, I am gambling that there is going to be further situations and complications about china and oil. A stupid move putting the most of my gambling wieght towards the downside of the spread with DD puts? Perhaps. But if it goes south, I will attempt to correct it with DD day moves. Plus average it out with the next few days. Remember, I still have 50% to come back from with the put spreads from Thursday night. I feel that I am a positive balance sheet trader and I will come back from this and keep on making the green in the long run.

I will check the Asian markets tonight and update accordingly. Now enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Tradinginsider

Saturday, January 23, 2016

Saturdays Post

How is everyone's weekend doing? Mine is going just fine, getting some cleaning around the house done, going downtown in the city tonight.

I would like to go over my trading day on Friday. It turns out I am not suited to slam 2 monster energy drinks and roll the dice while screaming 'cmon 7!!!!'

I think I will just stick to my regular system of the three main trading points per day. Once 10 minutes before close, buying which way I think the market will go the next day based on news/technical candle charts. the second being about 45 minutes after market open where I will try to capture my overnight profits during the gap fade, and third to jump in about 2.5 hours after open to get in on the days momentum with a daycall or dayput, which I will sell or reverse during the following 2.5 hours.

So what went down on Friday?

1. Sold the previous nights end of day calls. Made 49%
2. Lost all the previous nights puts. lost 100%
The above where to expire that next day. I should stick with 2 weeks out to let me out of the other half without a 100% loss, at the very min 1 week out.
3.dayput at .50 sold at .54 about 7% profit
4. daycall near the end of the day at .60 sold at .53 minus 13%

So, not good. First, lets take number 2 out of the equation. I will deal with that in the next paragraph. The day put did what it was supposed to do, I will always do that. Number 4, the above, I will never do that again near the end of the day.

Now for those puts that lose on the other side of the spread. First of all, I will never choose options that expire the next day again for my end of day call. There is just not enough time for a bounceback the other way to possibly get my money back in part from the other end of the spread. Also, for losing ends of the spread or losing end of day 1 way non spread picks: I tend to DD or even triple down if a previous one was wrong in an attempt to get my money back. I understand that is nothing more than a Martingale casino progression, but this isnt a casino and I believe that I hold the edge over the market via the way I trade. A casino has set rules and payoffs that favor the casino. When i trade in the market, I set my own rules. So I try to deal with or erase past goofups such as that DD put call and try to even things out back to profit in the overall run. Yes, that put loss is on the books hanging there and I will deal with it next week.

Welp, thats all I got today, you guys have a good Sat, and tomorrow I will take a look at what it looks like for the beginning of next week.

Tradinginsider
Follow me on Twitter for instant alerts: Marklaechel@tradecontrarian

Friday, January 22, 2016

2 down one up

I foresee something bad happening next week. A bad piece of news. Not sure what its going to be but the obvious thing is people think that this market just hit a bottom and is going to bounce back. I dont agree. I am going to go with a call that expires next week but I am going to DD double down on put calls that expire a week after that for Monday:

My calls

My DD puts

Get this in before market close and I will see you Monday. Wrap up an analysis on my trading this weekend for the past week so come on back for that. I will go over when I lost my shit and played crazy (hint Weeeeeee!) and if I should step back and take a good hard look at what Im doing and try to go for the more stable trades.

Have a good Weekend,

Tradinginsider

exit daycall

exit daycall for loss: I guess ill just stick with what I know and not ride the coaster down with my hands up anymore.

what I know: end of day call, check for gap sell hold 45 min after markets open, 2.5 hrs after market open daycall/dayput and thats it. I was hot doggin it today to see if it would stick. Nope.

Ill be back in 15 min to see if any end of day to hold over weekend.

Tradinginsider

daycall issued

Lets ride that big moe until 2:25. Wooooo!
Our in

QQQ Jan 2016 103.000 call (QQQ160122C00103000)

 -OPR
0.60 Up 0.46(328.57%) 1:53PM EST
Prev Close:0.14
Open:0.38
Bid:0.58
Ask:0.61
Strike:103.00
Expire Date:22-Jan-16
Day's Range:0.30 - 0.79
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:10,969
Open Interest:7,664
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Currency in USD.
Check back at 2:25 Chicago Central time....

Tradinginsider