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Wednesday, September 30, 2015

When reading a post...

It has come to my attention that sometimes when on this blog if you pick the link all the way to the top right of my page (it says 'Main Page') to go to the actual newspaper layout format of the www.1045report.com, sometimes you get a blank white page with one line of text saying that there was  a redirect failure. Simply hit your refresh button in your browser.
There...now you are on www.the1045report.com.
I apologize for the blip in the programming. Im working on it.

The actual site www.the1045report.com is a visual newspaper layout representation of my blog and in almost all cases mirrors what I wrote in by blog, with links back to this blog. Its just a little bit prettier with all the information layed out in an eyeball friendly format.

See you later on this morning,

Tradinginsider

Looking at Thursday

This is interesting. The chart says most likely will go up, and todays candle is an 'up' candle. So why did I buy a put? Lets take a look...

You can see that the majority of the signals on this chart says Thurs will be an up day. But I think its a fakeout. Here are my reasons:
1. The overall trend is still down
2. The global economy sucks
3. I think the report from china was a 'relief' rally
4. The ADX black line isnt showing reversal territory..its still over 15 at 26.24

So I took a stab at it and bought a put. Could the market go up tomorrow? Yes it could, and I have ways to deal with that. For now, we wait until tomorrow.

Tradinginsider

Buying a SPY put

I dont usually triple up, but I am throwing in on a SPY put. I was looking at the calls, and soemthing was just bugging me, I couldnt put my finger on it. I just dont think that we are going to climb up and its up up and away. We had a relief rally today brought on by a Chinese Consumer report. Im going to warm you guys that going 3 times bet in one direction usually isnt good. Its bad for the bankroll, but I am going to go ahead and do it. I just have the nagging feeling that to buy a put is a sucker play, just getting the Market Makers wealthy.

My in:

Thats all for today.

Tradinginsider

New Pick

RENT- This is a proposed merger that the smart money says is never going to happen. As soon as this was announced, the stock jumped.

COMSCORE, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCOR) said that it will buy Rentrak Corporation (NASDAQ:RENTin an all-stock deal, creating a firm that provides analytics and data services for the web, mobile, media, television and marketing industries which may rise to rival dominant player Nielsen Holdings PLC (NYSE:NLSN). Shares of COMSCORE and Rentrak each gained over 8% and nearly 13% in after-hours trading after the announcement. However, Insider Monkey data show that hedge funds either did not foresee this development, or considered that a potential deal will not bring a lot of value, which is not surprising taking into account that both stocks have declined significantly since the beginning of 2015.
TV Room Google Plus Hangout
General opinion is that hedge funds underperform the S&P500 based on net returns. But we are missing something very important here. Hedge funds generally pull in strong returns from their small-cap picks and invest a lot of their resources into analyzing these stocks. They simply don’t take large enough positions in them relative to their portfolios to generate strong overall returns because their large-cap picks lagged the market. We share the top 15 small-cap stocks favored by the best hedge fund managers every quarter and this strategy has managed to outperform the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) every year since it was launched in August 2012, returning 118% and beating the market by over 60 percentage points (read more details). Because of this, we know that collective hedge fund sentiment is extremely telling and valuable.
COMSCORE, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCOR) said that the acquisition of Rentrak Corporation (NASDAQ:RENT) in which each Rentrak share will be converted to the right to receive 1.5 shares of COMSCORE, is expected to close in early 2016. COMSORE shareholders are expected to own about 66.5% of the combined firm while Rentrak shareholders will own the other 33.5% on a fully diluted basis. The deal will be mildly dilutive to non-GAAP EPS in 2016, the firm noted, and will be accretive the following year. The deal has been approved by both of the companies’ Board of Directors.
COMSCORE, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCOR) said that it will buy Rentrak Corporation (NASDAQ:RENTin an all-stock deal, creating a firm that provides analytics and data services for the web, mobile, media, television and marketing industries which may rise to rival dominant player Nielsen Holdings PLC (NYSE:NLSN). Shares of COMSCORE and Rentrak each gained over 8% and nearly 13% in after-hours trading after the announcement. However, Insider Monkey data show that hedge funds either did not foresee this development, or considered that a potential deal will not bring a lot of value, which is not surprising taking into account that both stocks have declined significantly since the beginning of 2015.
TV Room Google Plus Hangout
General opinion is that hedge funds underperform the S&P500 based on net returns. But we are missing something very important here. Hedge funds generally pull in strong returns from their small-cap picks and invest a lot of their resources into analyzing these stocks. They simply don’t take large enough positions in them relative to their portfolios to generate strong overall returns because their large-cap picks lagged the market. We share the top 15 small-cap stocks favored by the best hedge fund managers every quarter and this strategy has managed to outperform the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) every year since it was launched in August 2012, returning 118% and beating the market by over 60 percentage points (read more details). Because of this, we know that collective hedge fund sentiment is extremely telling and valuable.
COMSCORE, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCOR) said that the acquisition of Rentrak Corporation (NASDAQ:RENT) in which each Rentrak share will be converted to the right to receive 1.5 shares of COMSCORE, is expected to close in early 2016. COMSORE shareholders are expected to own about 66.5% of the combined firm while Rentrak shareholders will own the other 33.5% on a fully diluted basis. The deal will be mildly dilutive to non-GAAP EPS in 2016, the firm noted, and will be accretive the following year. The deal has been approved by both of the companies’ Board of Directors.
DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
Kendall Law Group, led by former federal judge Joe Kendall, is investigating potential claims against the Board of Directors of Rentrak (NASDAQ: RENT) in connection with the proposed acquisition of Rentrak by comScore, Inc. According to the terms of the agreement, Rentrak shareholders will receive 1.15 shares of comScore for each Rentrak share held at the close of the transaction. At least one Wall Street analyst has placed a price target of Rentrak at $100 per share, and the median target of analysts is over $73 per share, significantly more than the comScore offer price. Rentrak has traded for more than $87/share this past year.
The national securities firm’s investigation seeks to determine whether Rentrak and its Board breached their fiduciary duties by engaging in self-dealing, failing to maximize the value of the Company, failing to disclose all material benefits and costs, and failing to obtain the best possible consideration for the shareholders. The Kendall Law Group is investigating whether Rentrak shareholders have the option to file a lawsuit to ensure the board of directors obtains the best possible price for shareholders and the disclosure of material information.
If you currently own shares of Rentrak and want to know more about your rights, you are encouraged to contact Jamie McKey at the Kendall Law Group at 877-744-3728 or by email atjmckey@kendalllawgroup.com to learn more about your rights as a shareholder. There is no cost or obligation to you. Kendall Law Group was founded by a former federal judge, includes a former United States Attorney, prosecutors and securities lawyers who are experienced in nationwide complex securities litigation. The firm has been counsel in numerous merger and acquisition cases nationwide, including some of the largest transactions in the United States.


We are going to take the gamble that this is going to fall apart. At the very least this stock is going to lose some steam and we will make some money off of it. I went out to January in order to prevent erosion.
Our in:

Check back later today for any action I undertake with the QQQ or SPY

Tradinginsider

Check this car out

Hey guys while I go through the most up lists for the day, this caught my eye...check this out
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-model-x-suv-finally-arrives-2015-09-30?link=MW_popular

This thing can go from 0-60 in 3.2 seconds and can last 250 miles between charges. How about that? It also has bioweapon defense mode. Check out the below video of people reacting to this acceleration:


Ill be back in a bit.

Tradinginsider

So thats what happened...

When I saw that the markets were up 200 points I knew that there must be a news item that made the technicals be ignored, because they were showing imminent drop:

However the mood Wednesday proved more upbeat as investors appeared to welcome a report from the payroll processor ADP that showed better-than-expected job gains in the private sector in September, while they shrugged off a dismal reading on Chicago-area manufacturing, which dropped into contraction territory.
Helping overall sentiment are gains in overseas equity markets. In Asia almost all markets closed sharply higher after an optimistic report on Chinese consumer sentiment. The upbeat trading mood spilled over into Europe, where all major benchmarks were showing gains of around 2%.

Now I am going to have to see how the market digests this. The amateurs trade in the morning, and the pros trade in the afternoon. As in, I need to see if the candlesticks towards the end of the day tell me that the market is going to continue to correct or climb from the above news.

Thats the problem with technical analysis. News trumps it most of the time. But the good thing is once the news gets abaorbed and assimilated, the techs take back over again.
Today I will look at a stock we can bounce off the most up list, because I still expect a drop.

Tradinginsider

Good Morning...looking around..

I notice that the market is up large this morning...that surprises me. Doing some digging right now, I will be back.

Tradinginsider

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Thats all for today.

Well we are all set up for a mini to average correction in the market, as I feel that it will double bottom dupping like 3-4 weeks ago.

Stay Frosty these next few days,

Tradinginsider

Market heading toward cliff...QQQ put issued

It looks to me like its about to go over the edge of a cliff....the warmth has dissapeared from this mornings consumer reports and now the pros have taken over in the afternoon....I dont think tomorrow or the day after is going to be a very good day for the market.
My in:

That's all for today. Remember, if this does happen, brace yourself and get ready to buy more...right when your instincts are screaming to sell and get out. Steel balls, people.

Tradinginsider

Im back from a doctors appt, checking to see what we can do here

Last half hr of trading, checking for opps.

Tradinginsider

One eyebrow raised- Consumer Report

I did not expect an up day today, and the charts did not tell me to expect one, either. The consumer confidence report came out today, so the news trumped the techs. The report said that things were looking skippy:
U.S. consumer confidence rose slightly in September and was just a shade below a postrecession high. The consumer confidence index increased to 103.0 from a revised 101.1 in August, the Conference Board said Tuesday. That's the highest leve since January, when consumer confidence touched an eight-year high. Economists polled by MarketWatch had projected the index to fall to 96.0, partly because of fresh worries about the health of the world economy. The present situation index, a measure of current conditions, also climbed to an eight-year high of 121.1 from 115.8. Yet the expectations index declined to 91.0 from 91.6, suggesting Americans are a bit more cautious about the next six months. "While consumers view current economic conditions more favorably, they do not foresee growth accelerating in the months ahead," said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at board.
This alone can send things back up. But what is the report really saying? That we are giving a thumbs up in the face of a sick global economy and that is the reason for traders to start buying again?

The market is like a big brainless simpleton. Traders look to anything and once the breeze blows a certain way, they are off chasing it.
I am going to sit out a few hours and watch what happens.

Tradinginsider

Good Morning

I am checking the market now....


Tradinginsider

Monday, September 28, 2015

CHART SAYS DROP IN NEXT THREE DAYS

Watching the charts, I am very happy that I have some SPY put novembers ready to go. In looking at the chart below, I am now able to glean some pretty clear timing:

It looks like the market is going to drop and drop to the extent where we have a double bottom form.
Now for a lot of you, this might very well be a 'holy shit' moment. Maybe a few of your will get a margin call. Maybe yet more of you will sweat your 401K.
Don't panic sell. HOLD. As a matter of fact, add some more to your portfolio. But wait until we see what goes down and how far it actually dips.
The thing I am going to do over the next several days so I catch a good part of this will be puts in the morning and the afternoon, so I can micromanage this and squeeze as much money out of this drop as I can. Whenever I see big things coming? That means big money coming because its easy to contrarian trade volatility.
So what about the chart above? You can see overall, there is a stepping down in the QQQ if you look from left to right. Now look at the circled area with the arrow. See a pattern repeating? I do.
Most of all when this happens, DO NOT FREAK OUT and start selling into it.

Tradinginsider

Sell QQQ Put from 3 hrs ago

Ok, we bought this QQQ put 3 hours ago at this price:( note bid and ask, we were in at 2.88

And now 3 hours later, we exiting at this price:

That is a 22% gain in 3 hours. How about them apples?

Thats all for today more tomorrow..

Tradinginsider

next update 2:30 pm CST for any followup last min orders

Just like the title says, check back near close to get a play in before they turn the machines off.

Tradinginsider

Another put

Here we go..another put for the closer short term because Im not liking how the chart is looking.

QQQ Oct 2015 101.000 put (QQQ151030P00101000)

 -OPR
3.03 Up 0.93(44.29%) 11:07AM EDT
Prev Close:2.10
Open:2.63
Bid:2.84
Ask:2.91
Strike:101.00
Expire Date:30-Oct-15
Day's Range:2.63 - 3.03
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:63
Open Interest:1,347
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Currency in USD.














Come on back closer to close, like 15 min before for any new orders. I looked at the most up list for the day, and went through 30+ stocks and did not find anything.

Tradinginsider

Purchase SPY Nov Puts

We purchase a Nov put for longer term protection. The charts are doing something a bit hinky and I see a pretty serious drop coming. At least with this, we are in on it.

SPY Nov 2015 190.000 put (SPY151120P00190000)

 -OPR
6.31 Up 1.19(23.24%) 10:48AM EDT
Prev Close:5.12
Open:5.60
Bid:6.27
Ask:6.32
Strike:190.00
Expire Date:20-Nov-15
Day's Range:5.60 - 6.47
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:4,257
Open Interest:77,167
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Currency in USD.












For anything shorter term, I am going to see what the market does today in the afternoon.

Tradinginsider

Ok, this is what Im doing...

Im about to purchase some QQQ puts and some SPY puts. You might be thinking watching my activity, "why not just hold the puts that you exited today?"
The reason is so I lock in my gains. I just made twenty something percent on one, and 40 something percent on another. Thats cash on the table that might not be there tomorrow.

So what Im doing is pausing, taking the money, then re-positioning myself.

Ill be back with some more orders.

Tradinginsider

Im feeling greedy: Exit Nov QQQ puts for Profit

I know that this was supposed to be for long term protection, but there is the money laying on the table and Im going to reach out and take the money.

We exit our Nov QQQ puts for profit:

QQQ Nov 2015 103.000 put (QQQ151120P00103000)

 -OPR  
4.67 Up 0.94(25.20%) 10:30AM EDT
Prev Close:3.73
Open:4.05
Bid:4.67
Ask:4.69
Strike:103.00
Expire Date:20-Nov-15
Day's Range:4.00 - 4.71
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:353
Open Interest:5,384









We got it at 3.39. We just earned 27%!

Looking for more deals to exploit,

Tradinginsider

Sell QQQ put for profit

We got in Friday at 2 dollars, and now we exit at:

QQQ Oct 2015 103.000 put (QQQ151023P00103000)

 -OPR  
3.31 Up 0.61(22.59%) 10:03AM EDT
Prev Close:2.70
Open:2.93
Bid:3.33
Ask:3.46
Strike:103.00
Expire Date:23-Oct-15
Day's Range:2.93 - 3.31
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:16
Open Interest:278









A nice little significant gain of 40%!

I am taking a look at the longer term put now.

Tradinginsider

Good Morning

Update in progress...brb

Tradinginsider

Sunday, September 27, 2015

We are set for the week

We are set for the beginning of the week with two puts. The Sept. jobs report will not happen until this coming Friday and who knows what will happen Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. But according to the charts, things don't look too good and I am protected from down days with my puts. One short term, one long term for both possibilities: a slight drop or a more deeper drop.
You might say, why not any calls? What if the market goes up?
It just doesn't seem like there are too many up days in our quiver. The market already moved due to Yellen's upbeat speech, but all the problems I outlined earlier are still very much the situation. The technicals themselves also show the bear will continue.

This is not the time to jump in long term, wait for a dip before you do that like I did last week with BMW.

All eyes on Monday,

Tradinginsider

Friday, September 25, 2015

Monday-Tues-Wed

I see a bit of chopping next week. This chopping back and forth, however, is just putting off the inevitable: A second drop that will be the second half of the double dip that is going to rock us within 2.5 weeks.
Oh, the worst of it isnt over. Lets take a look at things: the structure of the entire thing is still rotten. The global economy is grinding down to a slow beat, and China is undergoing currency manipulation, and we are still printing off billions of dollars a month trying to keep the dollar propped up. In 2008 the government stopped a total 1929 collapse with a 800 Billion Dollar Bailout.  If you want to see a movie made about it how they did it and what they supposedly said (generally) about it while they were meeting discussing it, rent the movie "Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps". It actually was a pretty good movie, even though the general consensus was 2 stars. I thought Michael Douglas in particular played a very good mature Gordon Gekko, made more wiser and craftier due to his loss and most of all, seeing that losing Sucks.
But I digress. We are not out of the thick of it yet, and a double bottom will be the temporary sign to get on with things. I expect that to rock us before the end of October.
Lets look at the chart:

On just taking a precursory look, you can see where at first I was unable to come up with a consensus in my mind. While the Williams is in buy position, The ADX looks like it is starting to climb up a bit, which would not suggest a reversal drop. The Aroon on top looks like they are going to both lay down on the bottom, but I would put more weight in the red indicator getting jumpy again. No, I am going to have to look at the candlesticks. What I see is a chart losing steam, stepping down in steps. Also those two big red candles I circled: does that pattern look familiar from before? Unfortunately it does. I expect some sideways walking and then as soon as some f'ed up new hits, the bottom is going to open up again and we are going to freefall a bit like we did 3 weeks ago. For our new double bottom. From there is is up until the 'event' that's coming fall next year. Lets just say that Hillary/Trump is going to have a busy presidency.

Tradinginsider

I'm feeling a drop next three days

Im feeling a cold draft. Don't know what it is, maybe the enthus. is running out of Yellens bullish comments. Everything is still what it was. I feel like a put. A QQQ put.
My in:

I wanted to get in before close for next week. I think we will be angling down a bit. So now we have a put from Nov hanging out there for a big drop and this one, for a smaller drop.

Now that I think about it, thats a pretty good system Im easing into. I hang the outer ones up for protection and more actively trade the closer ones. Or is that like saying I like breathing oxygen. I dont know. But it just makes sense. No more orders for today, see you Monday.

Tradinginsider

My purchase order yesterday for BMW...you're welcome.

I knew that was a knee jerk reaction to the VW problem and that BMW had a panic sell off yesterday. In proper contrarian style I looked at the numbers, decided that the market was freaking out with panic and fear, and ran in the burning building. Today I had a nice gain in the stock overnight.
But its not really about the short term with this one. You are going to hold this for quite a while. Put in the money in and forget about it.

Yesterday:

Then I jumped in yesterday and today here is what the stock is looking like:

You
should go back and read my post from yesterday why this is a long termer: http://howtobeatthestockmarket.blogspot.com/2015/09/time-to-purchase-bmw-outright.html

Tradinginsider

Exit QQQ call from yesterday for Profit

Today we make some money on that QQQ call from yesterday...our in was 1.77 and today we are out at 2 dollars. Ill take 11% any day of the week.

More
to come today. If I was here earlier perhaps more. Perhaps more if you sold your today at 2.30. But we are going by what I do here and for us, its out at 2.

Tradinginsider


Good Afternoon

Hey everyone, was at a funeral this morning, just got back. Today is up, looking at selling my QQQ call.

Taking a look around, be right back.

Tradinginsider

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Protection Nov 103 QQQ Puts

I decided to purchase a bit of longer term drop insurance.

My in:


Thats all for today!

Tradinginsider

slight up tomorrow according to the charts...QQQ call

We are going to do a QQQ call for tomorrow morning right at the money. I see the potential for a slight upday tomorrow...may be a good way to glean 10% early in the morning.

My in:


Thats all for today!

Tradinginsider

Time to purchase BMW outright

Q: Hey Mark, should I get into BMW now for the long haul? I mean, just like Buffet, purchase a block and sit on it for 20-30 years?
A: Yes

Lets take a look at this chart:

You notice that
this is a solid company that constantly increases its market share. Look at the dip in 2001 and then the dip in 2008 when the markets crashed. Then look what happened. The stock keeps climbing like an early Microsoft or Home Depot.
Today is an excellent day to get in for the long term. The stock is being panic sold due to its percieved involvment with the VW emissions scandal. Its making for a great dip to get in on the cheap. Even if there is a crash next year: simply buy more.
You have to take the long view on this. Remember the beginning of the 1993 Movie 'TimeCop'? At the beginning there was a guy from the 2020's who travelled back to 1929 and was snapping up stocks for pennies on the dollar. He had a newspaper from 2020 open to the stock pages and right next to it, a paper from 1929. He would look up coca cola in 2020 and it would be at 179 dollars a share, then would line the ruler up to the 1929 price during the crash: 4 cents a share. He then got on the phone and called his broker and started buying.
Looking at this chart, simply draw ahead the line. What will the stock be at in 5 years? 10 years? Yup. Move some cash in and forget about it. If the market crashes this year buy more then forget about it. If the market crashes in 2016, buy more at the point where everyone is screaming they will never go near the markets again then forget about it.

My in:

Thats all for this midday, check back near close for any ins I might pull during the last 15 minutes of trading.

Tradinginsider

We dump that QQQ 108.50 call: worthless.

Well pay attention to this because its probably never going to happen again: I made a big mistake buying way outside the money figuring the markets would roar when there was no fed raise. Whoops.

1. Yes, the above. In actuality, the market saw no rate raise as a weakness, that the market was sick so the market dropped.
2. From now on in order to take full advantage of volitility I will always purchase at or near the money so I dont have my cheese in the wind like this again. I am not into gambling, I am into almost sure things, and with this, I gambled.
My out? Total 100% loss:

But really: Do I give a shit? No. Because I am so good that I will overcome this -100 in the loss column. As a matter of fact, with the three wins I have today I already have 60% of it back. By this time next week, this loss will be not only totally absorbed, but I will strongly be in the plus column again, up 70% over this.
I make money. Rapidly. As this site begins to draw more visitors I expect to be on CNBC within three years being interviewed.
Keep it tuned right here and rip the knob off if you want to see how I trade and increase my wealth not at a trickle like most other people, but more like a firehose that someone let slip and now is whipping back and forth in the street hosing everyone down.
Ah, refreshing.

My next post will be about Volkswagon, and how you should buy more today and continue to hold.

Tradinginsider