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Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Market Forecast for Thurs

I expect things to be a down day. As a matter of fact, I bet on it. Here is why. Before I get to the charts lets talk crowd psychology. Yesterday everyone saw a great day after a great overnight in the Asian markets, and so the buy orders stacked up last night and all executed this morning at open. I was ON IT as I saw that the charts said down for today and I knew that there would be a big gap fade in the morning, so I sold my calls (FAZ put is really a call in the big picture...think about it) and got the hell out before the market had time to regroup. And regroup it did. As soon as the flush was off the China news (stop trading brakes triggers and further stimuluses) the market then started to freak out again about the rates.
A thing about the rates...if we are so sick and apparently on life support that the mere thought of raising the rates a quarter or a half percent up from ZERO causes the market to crash, then we are in far worse shape than I thought.
So now that the markets have dropped, I think the fear is back. The candlesticks also say the same thing. We will look at FAZ, the reverse Bear 3x etf first:

Look at that big white overshadowing candle. Wow. That is a strong upward signal. It overshadows the candle to its left and has more of an undertail than a top tail. Strong signal upwards. Lets look at the QQQ next:

Look at the chart and you will notice a pattern: Each day it is going up down up down up...etc. Todays big red candle is a failure candle as it looked to push upwards but failed and closed at the low. This bearish candle engulfs the small white candle next to it and is therefore throwing the signal that tomorrow is going to be a bad day. And SPY?

Even more exaggerated than QQQ. You can see todays candle engulfs the previous and the close was lower than the open.
So: Unless a stellar piece of news comes out and hits the market, things are looking down tomorrow.

Tradinginsider

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