Are you a Millionaire in the Making?
How to add a few more zeros to your bank balance
5 reasons the dollar will get stronger
Here are five reasons the dollar could get stronger soon
After-hours buzz: Tesla, Cisco, L Brands more
A pedestrian uses a mobile device to photograph the New York Stock Exchange
Welcome to the Report!
New Design, and with available extra services to help you profit
This city is taking on Silicon Valley as a start-up haven
This tech hub is churning out start-ups at a startling rate. The skilled talent pool is a big driver of the trend.
Sunday, August 31, 2014
Happy Labor day!
Friday, August 29, 2014
Stocks to watch
On early Tuesday we are going to see if we are going to jump into Shoe Carnival before it announces the next day on Wed. Monday of course, the US markets are closed due to the American Holiday 'Labor Day'. Usually I like to get into a stock on the three day drop at least two days before, as advance insider information starts to leak out about the results before the actual official results come out. But in this case due to the markets being closed on Mon, we are going to see if Shoe Carnival is still kind of up and hasn't sold off yet. If it is still up in the morning, we are going to purchase some Sept 20.00 puts. The plan is that when the stock announces on Tues, the results are going to be average or worse than average and seeing that the stock has climbed in anticipation of these earnings results, any gain or upside is already going to be priced in the stock and people are going to sell it off. This of course if it works out like this, will cause our put to jump in price, perhaps 30% overnight.
Buy the rumor, sell the news. Thats how a lot of the general public plays earnings announcements. During the 2 weeks before earnings announcements, people start to pile on a stock and when it announces, they sell it off, providing the stock hasn't announced anything amazing.
According to analysts, shoe carnival isn't going to come out with anything amazing, so if this is true, this means that the general public was wrong piling on this stock as the momentum climbed all the way to earnings.
Have yourself a good weekend. The 2-3 day QQQ chart and the 2-3 week QQQ chart has been updated in the Sandbox, so dont forget to check that out.
Happy Trading!
Mark
Buy the rumor, sell the news. Thats how a lot of the general public plays earnings announcements. During the 2 weeks before earnings announcements, people start to pile on a stock and when it announces, they sell it off, providing the stock hasn't announced anything amazing.
According to analysts, shoe carnival isn't going to come out with anything amazing, so if this is true, this means that the general public was wrong piling on this stock as the momentum climbed all the way to earnings.
Have yourself a good weekend. The 2-3 day QQQ chart and the 2-3 week QQQ chart has been updated in the Sandbox, so dont forget to check that out.
Happy Trading!
Mark
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
We are going to watch H+R Block, Shoe Carnival
A few things about HRB. First, technically wise, there is a divergence happening. Hold a ruler up to the RSI and then hold a ruler up to the stock price itself and you can see that they are both going separate ways. 8 times out of 10 the stockprice will straighten out and follow the RSI, and the RSI says drop.
HRB is a tricky beast, because they only time that this stock really makes money is right after tax season, as reported in June. This is the big quarter where they make all thier money, and people understand that the other 4 quarters tend to be flat. This expectation could drive this stock higher anyway after the stock reports, especially if it shows even a bit of a gain. We will watch this stock and make a decision Friday after close.
We are also going to watch Shoe Carnival, (SCVL)who is sceduled to report next week. It is in the middle of a strong run up, and its numbers are not looking especially solid, this appears to be a volume momentum play with no significant news, especially for the strong run up in early August: Apparently trading computer programs recognized a bottom and buy orders were issued. Analysts do not see anything good at earnings for this upcoming quarter.
More tomorrow.
HRB is a tricky beast, because they only time that this stock really makes money is right after tax season, as reported in June. This is the big quarter where they make all thier money, and people understand that the other 4 quarters tend to be flat. This expectation could drive this stock higher anyway after the stock reports, especially if it shows even a bit of a gain. We will watch this stock and make a decision Friday after close.
We are also going to watch Shoe Carnival, (SCVL)who is sceduled to report next week. It is in the middle of a strong run up, and its numbers are not looking especially solid, this appears to be a volume momentum play with no significant news, especially for the strong run up in early August: Apparently trading computer programs recognized a bottom and buy orders were issued. Analysts do not see anything good at earnings for this upcoming quarter.
More tomorrow.
Sold CBK today for 30% profit
Hello everyone.
I just did the 3 week pre earnings announcement climb with CBK and it popped today, so I have issued a sell order. I could have held on longer, but I figured 30% in my pocket was 30% in my pocket, so I took the money.
Next up today is FRAN. I took a look at the stock and the numbers do not look too good on the analysis's expectations page:
As you can see the last 3 out of 4 quarters there has been a slight negative suprise. And as for the expected growth estimate for this quarter next to the industry, sector and s+p FRAN is expected to come up limp, slightly in the red. Then, I checked the headlines, and other indicators for FRAN, and as you can see below, FRAN has been irratiotnally been climbing up to its earnings date which means barring any insider suprises, the general public is wrong and piling on the upward momentum as a momentum play.
I believe that the day before the earnings announcement the stock will drop to its correct valuation sans the run up as the public comes to its senses and reevaluates the correct price for the stock. So I am planning on selling this next Monday or Tuesday.
Happy Trading
I just did the 3 week pre earnings announcement climb with CBK and it popped today, so I have issued a sell order. I could have held on longer, but I figured 30% in my pocket was 30% in my pocket, so I took the money.
Next up today is FRAN. I took a look at the stock and the numbers do not look too good on the analysis's expectations page:
I believe that the day before the earnings announcement the stock will drop to its correct valuation sans the run up as the public comes to its senses and reevaluates the correct price for the stock. So I am planning on selling this next Monday or Tuesday.
Happy Trading
Saturday, August 23, 2014
How I Make My Picks
Late Thursday I picked CBK as a stock that I feel is going to rise before its earnings, and I expect the stock to go up above 10 dollars per share. When I made the pick, the stock was at 9.40 per share. Here is what was going through my mind as I was deciding on this stock.
1. First of all I needed to decide which way the market was going to be going for the next several days and for the next week. This determines if I do one of two things:
A) If I do the three day drop: I look at the earnings calander three days out and I hunt for stocks
that have been climbing up steadily over the last week or so leading up to thier earnings date.
I then look for those that have dismal analysist expectations. Poor last several quarter suprise
performance, expectations in the red way below benchmark, etc. Below is a snapshot of what
Im looking for:
As you can see in the section "Earnings History" it had some dismal to the downside suprises
for the last 3 out of 4 quarters. Now continue down to the bottom where it says "Growth Est"
where it puts up the stock against the industry, sector and S+P benchmarks for comparison.
Compared to these the stock itself is seriously in the red.
Now when I see something like the above in the anaylist expectiations section, and I see
that the stock has been rising for a week or so leading up to the earnings date, that tells me
that there is a 90% chance that the public is wrong due to the stock having weak underlying
fundimentals and that the public is piling on this because it is a momentum play. Of course,
there is about a 5%-7% chance that there is an insider thing happening on the stock, but
having a 90% chance that this will work out means that I will make money in the long term
with this setup. Again, bad anaylist numbers, and the stock rising over the previous week
leading up to earnings. This is where I purchase a put at the money or slightly in the money
two days before earnings. When the actual earnings happens chances are because of the
stocks underlying fundimentals, the stock is gonna drop when the earnings that are probably
going to be crap is going to cause the stock to snap to its correct valuation. When this happens
the put you bought (especially if the current month or just one month out to expiration) will
suddenly jump up in price 30% to 100%. You then sell the put and look around for your next
opportunity.
B) If I do the three week climb: I look at the earnings calander about 2 and a half weeks out and
I hunt for stocks that have not yet begun the two week climb that good stocks will usually do
starting about 11/2 to 2 weeks before the stock announces earnings. I then look for stocks
that have excellent analysist earnings expectations. Below is an example of a stock that I
am looking for:
As you can see in the section of "Earnings History" there have been significant upside suprises
to the upside for most of the last 4 quarters, and looking down at "Growth Est" you can see
that comparing to the benchmark Industry, S+P and Sector, it is a standout from all of these
with significant percentages to the upside. What this means is that the public will also see this
and will most likely begin to pile on this stock causing the stock to climb all the way up to
earnings. What I do is when I find one of these stocks I purchase a call option at the money
and ride it up to about a day or two before its earnings announcement. I bail at that point
1 to two days before the earnings announcement because as it gets close, the number starts
to leak out on the trading floor and people will usually begin pre selling causing the price to
slip a bit. So my call that I purchased two weeks ago or so can increase in price from 30%
to anywhere to 100% or more.
(TO be continued later tonight)
1. First of all I needed to decide which way the market was going to be going for the next several days and for the next week. This determines if I do one of two things:
A) If I do the three day drop: I look at the earnings calander three days out and I hunt for stocks
that have been climbing up steadily over the last week or so leading up to thier earnings date.
I then look for those that have dismal analysist expectations. Poor last several quarter suprise
performance, expectations in the red way below benchmark, etc. Below is a snapshot of what
Im looking for:
for the last 3 out of 4 quarters. Now continue down to the bottom where it says "Growth Est"
where it puts up the stock against the industry, sector and S+P benchmarks for comparison.
Compared to these the stock itself is seriously in the red.
Now when I see something like the above in the anaylist expectiations section, and I see
that the stock has been rising for a week or so leading up to the earnings date, that tells me
that there is a 90% chance that the public is wrong due to the stock having weak underlying
fundimentals and that the public is piling on this because it is a momentum play. Of course,
there is about a 5%-7% chance that there is an insider thing happening on the stock, but
having a 90% chance that this will work out means that I will make money in the long term
with this setup. Again, bad anaylist numbers, and the stock rising over the previous week
leading up to earnings. This is where I purchase a put at the money or slightly in the money
two days before earnings. When the actual earnings happens chances are because of the
stocks underlying fundimentals, the stock is gonna drop when the earnings that are probably
going to be crap is going to cause the stock to snap to its correct valuation. When this happens
the put you bought (especially if the current month or just one month out to expiration) will
suddenly jump up in price 30% to 100%. You then sell the put and look around for your next
opportunity.
B) If I do the three week climb: I look at the earnings calander about 2 and a half weeks out and
I hunt for stocks that have not yet begun the two week climb that good stocks will usually do
starting about 11/2 to 2 weeks before the stock announces earnings. I then look for stocks
that have excellent analysist earnings expectations. Below is an example of a stock that I
am looking for:
As you can see in the section of "Earnings History" there have been significant upside suprises
to the upside for most of the last 4 quarters, and looking down at "Growth Est" you can see
that comparing to the benchmark Industry, S+P and Sector, it is a standout from all of these
with significant percentages to the upside. What this means is that the public will also see this
and will most likely begin to pile on this stock causing the stock to climb all the way up to
earnings. What I do is when I find one of these stocks I purchase a call option at the money
and ride it up to about a day or two before its earnings announcement. I bail at that point
1 to two days before the earnings announcement because as it gets close, the number starts
to leak out on the trading floor and people will usually begin pre selling causing the price to
slip a bit. So my call that I purchased two weeks ago or so can increase in price from 30%
to anywhere to 100% or more.
(TO be continued later tonight)
Thursday, August 21, 2014
I am online
Thanks for coming to my blog. I am pleased to announce that I am now operational and online, with just a few bugs I am still working on: However, the main thrust of this site is intact...and that is good quality Contrarian style stock picks.
This site took several months to complete along with programming the Sandbox, the other page that I actually put the details on of the option pick that is flashing here on the blog. So the stock name flashes here on the blog and then to get the details you go to the order section on the sandbox page underneath my forecasts for the QQQ daily and QQQ weekly (which I use to determine which way the Nadsaq is going to go in the next 2-3 days (the QQQ daily chart) and which way I think the Nasdaq is going to go in the next several weeks (the QQQ weekly chart).
In the order section on the sandbox page I will tell you if it is a call option or a put option (call option is an option you buy if you are gambling that the stock will go up in price before a certain time) or if it is a put option (an option you buy if you are gambling if the stock price is going to drop).
To the right of that is my results table, that I will populate with my picks as time goes on to give a report on my trading for you to see. Dont forget to watch my welcome video and my about me video on the left top side of the page. Yes, thats me.
Just to let you know, I will generally make picks several times a week and will put new picks out several hours after the trading day closes. After the new stock pick has been on my blog page for about 6-8 hours, I will take it back down and put the curtain back up before I make my next pick. All my picks are for the next trading day of the US stock market.
Good luck and happy trading.
.png "English"){kind=small}
