Market: What will happen next few days?

Interesting that you would ask, because right now there is a coiled spring situation happening. A coiled spring is a bunch of potential energy coiling tight and rearing back much like a snake rearing back before it explodes forward to take a bite. Lets look at the chart for SPY:

I like to look at the SPY chart if I really want to go a few degrees back behind the scenes that QQQ displays. It goes a bit further for me and lets me know what is really happening behind the polite QQQ. As you can see there is some sideways consolidation in the market which is really an indicator that a coiled spring is forming. Nobody in the market knows whats next, everyone is looking at China, then they are looking at the Fed, then they are looking at any reports that are coming out then looking back at each other. No one knows. So the market trades cautiously and walks to the side. Until there is that one big news event that blows the spring. At this point I am unsure as to the direction its going to go up or down when it blows, I can only speculate. But lets look at it logically. Why would it blow to the topside and get back right where it was 2 weeks ago? China is a problem. The global manufacturing economy is falling, so fuel needs are falling. And why is manufacturing falling? Demand is falling because the world economy is ill. So based on all of that, we are waiting for some news to come out of China or another country like Greece happening (like Poland I heard today) and then Boom to the downside.
On the other hand, is there really room or pressure for the Market to blow to the downside? Yes, there is. Look at the chart, it was already way down there and it could go down there again in a panic. Where we are right now is on very thin ice, never mind next year. Tomorrow I expect things to wander down a bit barring any news.
But I expect this spring to blow south, so stay frosty. Tomorrow I am going to watch the market action and if I think that its appropriate, I might buy a baby leap like 3-4-5 months out at the money and just hang it out there waiting for the coil to blow.
Stay cautious if your game is calls and long, these are not safe times. Dont jump into anything right now, such as , "Honey, lets buy those 500 shares of Mircrosoft we've been talking about!" No. Nows not the time.

Tradinginsider

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Thats it for today, we got out of our QQQ DD Puts and our SPY DD puts.

More later including the state of the market. Why are things going sideways?

Later tonight with the Tuesday Forecast.

Tradinginsider

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Exit SPY DD Options

SPY DD PUTS get out now min loss...

We get out of our ddouble down with min damage. The markets didnt fly straight today, they flew sideways.


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if market continues to drop, we will exit SPY

Spy is currently at 2..44 and we are looking for the option to climb more. Quite frankly, I predicted down for today, but I thought it would be more of a rout. I needed the market to crash harder to get more value out of my SPY options. Check back 10 min before close to see what happens...

Tradinginsider

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From my experience...

In my 20 plus experience in looking at the market and its currently daily chart I would say that the market is going to be going down in the afternoon. It very rarely opens down, climbs back up and hangs under the line for a bit then jumps up above the line.
I would expect things to turn lower in the afternoon as traders become pessimistic about the lack of gains earlier in the morning.

Again, check back with me on the last 30 minutes of trading for any developments.

Tradinginsider

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Whats up with this kid?

So I am sitting here in the library this morning updating my site.
"Mooooooo."
I glance up, look around at a few of the other guys on laptops around me, we meet eyes for a second, then we all look back down at our computers.
"Moooooo."
What the fuck? There is this kid somewhere in the row of shelves who is making mooing noises. Now you would think the kids mom would grab his arm and say, stop that! But that doesnt appear to be happening.
I remember in high school we had this geek teacher by the name of Mr. Barney Bliss. He had the temprement and personality of Nixon and to tell you the truth, he kind of looked like him. Walked around like a guy doing a bad Nixon impression, Head low, shoulders up, kinda looking out under furrowed brows, all serious. At lunch we would have 1/2 hour in the cafeteria, and then we would have 1/2 hour in either the student center or the library, your choice. The student center was loud, there were pool tables, music, video games, coke machines, etc, but if you went into the library you had to be quiet. On the second floor during this last period of lunch, there were tables and cubicles all over the floor, then there were rows of shelves in the back and on the side.
Loyola Academy would have a teacher up there for that second half hour as a monitor in order to keep everything quiet, it was a study zone. Different teachers got the shift, and sometimes Mr. Bliss would be up there. Since he was a goof, it was open season. Hed be up there, walking around a bit while he wasnt at the desk with his hands behind his back.
"Barney." some kid would say from somewhere maybe from the back shelves.
Everyone would look up as he would go walking in the general direction of the voice quickly in order to bust the kid. He couldnt find anyone.
"Barney."
This time from the other side of the room. He would come running briskly back to the center of the room. "Who said that???", he said outloud, looking at several students in turn. There was a couple of smirks and muffled laughter.
From the back shelves (Spoken like Mr. Ed (The TV talking horse): "Barnyard Baaaarrrrrrrhhrrney!"
Then from the other side of the room another voice brays like a sheep": "Baaaaaarney!"
Now it was pandimonium. The entire room is laughing while this Nixon lookalike is running around the room screaming who said that? Whos saying that?? in abrupt different directions.
The next day we all had a talk by the studboy gym teacher to leave Barney (Whoops, I mean Mr. Bliss he corrected himself) alone and to respect the man.
The next day in the library, Mr. Bliss is up there. Things are quiet, hes walking around with his hands clasped behind his back.
"Barney," said a voice from the back. Light snikering as Mr. Bliss rapidly moved towards the rear shelves.

Tradinginsider

PS. If the market keeps moving sideways tomorrow, Ill tell you the story about Ron the Busdriver who would do dounuts in his full size schoolbus and let us yell, "Jogger on the Right!!" and Ron would slow down and pull more to the right so we all could throw stuff at the Jogger.

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We hold SPY, AAPL

The market is walking sideways, which really sucks. Volitility is how I make my money and I dont like the old sideways shuffle. Because of this we got off our cubes at even money, but SPY and AAPL continues to hang out there unless we get a little action one side or another.
I will watch this and update any development.


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exit QQQ even money no bounce DD PUT

We exit our bounce trade from friday even money via QQQ:

I

m going to take a look at SPY next.

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Good Morning

Checking the issues de jour now....


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The asian Markets are down

Ok, looks like we are going to have a soft open today. The Asian markets are down on Chinas comments and our futures are down due to a comment by the Fed, so this is not shaking out to be a very good money. Fine with me, I have some puts hanging out there Id love to close.

Come on back at around 1-2 hours in to see what I did with them.

Tradinginsider

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Have a Good Weekend

On Monday I expect the markets to drop a bit. The cubes have a reversal signal thats thrown.
I think I am going to be focusing on Google, Apple, the QQQ and SPY (Etfs for the Nasdaq).

Stay tuned this weekend for an update on the market.

Now get on out there tonight and have a good time.

Tradinginsider

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LATE DAY TRADE QQQ DD puts SPY DD puts

The candle charts are showing a potential reversal to the downside on monday and I want in on that. We are going to buy puts doubling down (2 piles) on QQQ and SPY:

Our ins:

More on this later, trying to get this in before close,

Tradinginsider

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Hold SPY and AAPL wait for updates

Wait until later today until I see which way the market is going to go. Right now it is basically walking sideways with everyone watching.

I dont expect a pull back up to where we were immediately. The S+P just displayed a "Death Cross" like Apple did a few days ago. That does not point to very good things and I think we are going to blow off more steam next week. I will update on Apple and Google later today.

Tradinginsider

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Exit QQQ calls for Profit

This morning we are going to exit our QQQ calls for profit now that the market has nudged up a bit. Below is our out:

Notice that the last price is not what the bid and the ask is what the current price you would get is. The last price listed was 24 minutes ago.

So we are out at 2.55. Our in was 1.80 yesterday (again the bid and the ask):

That is 29% overnight.

On to more options,
Tradinginsider

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Good Morning

Checking the markets now....

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What will happen Friday and APPLE

I think we are going to have a chaotic day. Friday will be the day where it is decided if these recent gains are going to be locked in or not. While the charts that I posted earlier showed the cubes and SPY and AAPL at a stall, suddenly in the last 10-15 minutes of trading the stocks roared forward and the candles suddenly changed to bullish.
AAPL:

Now its a top hammer, which is lukewarm to good with a little bit of up in it. The cubes and SPY kind of the same thing. But will the market continue to rise? The candles say so. But AAPL is sick. Under the guidance of Cook, it just doesn't have the creative fire that jobs brought to the table and several years after his death, this fact has come home to roost in the stock price as manifestation. An apple watch? Thanks, but I already have a cellphone. And that's the problem boiled down to its least common denominator. If Apple wants to drive again and dominate the market, they have to once again come out with products that are so innovative, everyone else HAS to say "Me too.". Phones were like Blackberries and apple came out with the Iphone. Now ALL phones are like Iphones with no physical keys, just a touchscreen with apps. Apple needs to do something new, like invent an AI phone or a Holographic phone with the image in the air above the phone as it lays on the table. Then you will start to see this stock go way back up there. Until something like this happens, its going to continue to shed. Innovate or die.
Back to it. I expect a rally in the morning, and then a reversal as people look around for something to grab onto but get nothing. I am ok regardless what happens tomorrow as I have QQQ calls in case things go up, and I have 2 puts for the down. Im pretty good as using a double down (DD) to cover in case things go wrong. I simply wait for the charts to become even more clear, broadcasting a top or bottom and then I recoup and keep going.
Well, thats my rant for this evening, see you in the trenches tomorrow.

Tradinginsider

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Late Day Orders..QQQ SPY AAPL

Ok, here is how Im gonna lay these out..

1) a at the money call for QQQ for tomorrow morning, I think things will gap up in the morning
2) a at the money put for AAPL as I think things will dive in the afternoon
3) an at the money put for SPY because spy is a harder customer than QQQ and I feel a dive afternoon.

SO:
Here is our late day call for the QQQ:

And here is our late day put for SPY:

And here is our late day put for AAPL:

You can refer to my charts I put up on all of these in my previous post (scroll down).

I think that the market is really looking around right now and there is uncertainty providing what just happened a couple of days ago, and the indicators that I talked about earlier on the charts such as the Aaroon and the Williams are telling us that things really dont have far to go up at this point.

You know, I was thinking. I may just start to concentrate on the big ticket stocks that people really care about: Google, Apple and the main ETFs such as the QQQ and SPY, which are directly tied to the daily Nasdaq. I would love to specialize in these two stocks and know everything about them and learn thier daily patterns so I can predict with high accuracy their movements. Ill probably have a line of people around the block for that service.

Come on back later in the day and we will talk about Friday.

Tradinginsider

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Ok everyone...1/2 hour away....

The 3 charts are starting to show that tomorrow is going to be a down/chop day. Here are the three charts:

QQQ

SPY

AAPL

All three of these are showing a sudden weak candle as the market is losing steam late in the day. QQQ is flashing an upright top signal with todays candle. SPY and AAPL are flashing middling/down signals. Come back 1/2 hour before close for orders, or at least to see what I do.

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An advanced move

Here's what I think we are going to do. Based on what I am seeing the indicators doing and a bit of crowd psychology, I think that things are going to blow off a bit tomorrow. We've had a great run back part way up but I think that things are going to peter out a bit. Lets look at this QQQ chart:
First, the QQQ:

You can see that I have a few more indicators on this for more clarification. First of all, looking at today's candle, you can see that things are looking bullish. Its a white candle, with a slight gap up which is also bullish. However, things are starting to change on this candle real-time. A tail is starting to grow on top of the candle that wasnt there 30 minutes ago. That is a weakening sign meaning the pricegap is weakening between open and close, as in the price was higher, but is starting to fall due to some weakness. Look at the bottom indicator. The Williams%R says that we are almost at the top, or overbought. Sure, its been going over the top on this indicator, but we are on shaky ground right now. The market just had the flu a couple of days ago, we aren't going to go pole vaulting just yet. Most importantly, look at the Aroon indicator above the candlestick chart. The Aroon indicator is still showing a strong negative, with the red negative line hardly moving down with this rally up we have been having. Very interesting, because the Aroon indicator is a much more powerful pre indicator of anything else on there.
So. I am going to be checking 3 charts 40 minutes before market close: QQQ, SPY and AAPL to see how the candles have solidified for the day and will make any recommendations at that time before close, so come on back.
The way that I am analyzing this is with other indicators behind the candle while looking at market psychology as a whole. No one is buying the possibility that we are just going to be going back to last weeks levels and trucking on from there.

Tradinginsider

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Today we watch AAPL

AAPL is almost screaming at me to put a put on it:

I am going to wait 2 hrs or so for confirmation, then go a head and purchase puts if the tombstone stays there on the chart.

Keeping my eyes open,

Tradinginsider

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Exit SPY calls for profit- 24% overnight

This morning we exit our SPY calls for profit and below is our out:

And below was our in yesterday:

That adds up to a 24% overnight gain. Not too shabby.

I will be looking around more today and also watching the Nasdaq to see if there is a jump in point.

Tradinginsider

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Good Morning, checking markets now....

Ill be right back..just checking the days action....

Tradinginsider

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What is the Market going to do on Thurs?

The charts say that tomorrow is going to be an up day. Lets look at the QQQ charts:

The candle is a nice little gap up showing strength, the candle is white, with a bottom tail, also indicating up.
If you look at the candle before it, it was a red candle with no tails...indicating a drop day. So what happened, why did we have an up day instead? Because in the early morning China announced that they were going to flood the market with billions in their currency, much like the US did with ours in 2008. This 'shoring up' was great news and news trumps technicals so the markets were up today.
So far, no big news, so the technicals rule. Also, Asia is currently nicely up as well as the futures.
So for Thursday: Up day.
At least in the morning. Since we are on thin ice right now with everyone goosed from 2 days ago, there could be a sudden turn around in the late morning or early afternoon. So if you are betting that things will go up, stay attentive in the morning and watch that gap fade.

Tradinginsider

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Purchase SPY calls...

Saw something on the chart here right before close...

This is a bottom hammer...and its been forming all day.

Here is my in:

She's a little pricey because the market has been going strong for the last 2 hrs. Thats all for today! Come back later this evening for a forecast on the markets tomorrow.

Tradinginsider

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Apple Death Cross happens today, Purchase Puts

Today we purchase puts for Apple. Look at this article:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/death-cross-appears-in-apples-stock-chart-2015-08-26
Each time there was a death cross the stock dropped.

Now what is interesting here is the tail is about to wag the dog. Apple is a massive blue chip stock tied into the DOW and the market. Apple is about to take a dive. I think that just reinforces my notion that the market is going to also take a dive.
Apple puts are also very high priced right now, there must be a big demand to short it.
As a matter of fact I think I see whats coming, Im going to have to look at other factors and indicators about QQQ and SPY before I come up with a decision. For now here is our in for Apple:

Again, a bit pricey, but if things move right, we should gain about 1-2 bucks on this put. I went a little bit more out, but this gives us a little more time to have the drop realize.
Tune in a bit later today to see what I do with QQQ and SPY. And again, I will come back earlier with any updates if and when something else happens.

Tradinginsider

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The rest of the day

I am gonna sit tight for a few hours and see how this market shakes out and then in the last half hour of trading, I just might jump back in with more SPY and QQQ.
As I predicted, the market opened higher in the morning and is now dropping as reality is setting in, regardless of Chinas late in the day currency injection. I think that when everything is weighed, we are still going to be looking for a bottom. But what I will be looking out for is both the techs and fundimentals.
Come on back 1/2 hr before close to see what I do.

Until then unless something big happens,

Tradinginsider

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Exit QQQ DD puts for profit

While we did not make what we did on SPY, we still made out.

My out for today with the double down puts:

And here is what we got in with:

I am going to find the percentage gains for both of these and add to these posts....

Looking around now: next post on state of the market.

Tradinginsider

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EXIT SPY DD put for profit

This morning we made some money on the SPY DD (Double Down) Put.

We exit at:

We were in at:

Looking around some more now....

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Good Morning

Scanning the Markets now....


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How will things go Wed?

I dont think its going to go well at all. I think we are going to find a new bottom in the upcoming two days. People came in, made a bit of a profit, then noticed that things did not REALLY go up, and holy shit, what does that mean, does the market have a paper foundation, and things are going to start to drop and I think China is going to have another problem overnight which is going to highlight the sick global economy. Lets look at the chart. I by the way find SPY to be a little more telling than QQQ as it moves more front in good times and hangs more back in bad times like the older sibling who will tell you the REAL story without sugarcoating things like the QQQ chart does. First the QQQ chart:

You can see todays candle is just floating out there in a gap down situation with no bottom tail and only a bit of a top tail. This shows more downside on the way.

Now lets take a look at todays SPY chart:

Wow. SPY pulling no punches. Look at that recent candle. a long red horror candle with no real top or bottom. Just saying, look out, more to come.

So what I feel will happen tomorrow is the opening will not be too bad but then a bad day will bloom from there.

Tradinginsider

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QQQ DD puts

In looking at the techs and the entire situatation, I dont think that this drop is done yet, I am going to recommend QQQ puts double down (2 piles) and below is my in:

I will update with a chart later. Just getting this out there before close.

Tradinginsider

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The techs say more of a drop coming- SPY puts

The technicals say more of a drop coming. So we are going to ride it. I am going to issue a double down of SPY and a double down of QQQ. I see two down days on the way with a lot of bitching and moaning and things along that nature.
Below is our in:

I am taking a look at QQQ puts right now...also will update this post with SPY chart in a minute....

Tradinginsider

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I dont see too much more up

In looking at the technicals, I dont see much more up, I think the market is making like a groundhog and is sticking its head out of the hole and looking around to see whats what. Lets look at the chart for SPY:

The williams %R does (the indicator right above) not have that much room to move up, the ratio between this indicators movement and the stocks position and movement shows there is not to much room to climb. The top indicator above the chart, the Aroon, itsnt too optimistic either. SPY is usually more tough with its predictions than the QQQ and is usually a good shadow etf to read when you really want the foundation of QQQ.
I dont think we have too much room to climb and recover with.
Just the same, we are going to sit things out and come back after lunch to see how things shake out.

Tradinginsider

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So far, right on script

With the exception of the dip in the morning, stocks are back up. But not high enough to exit our SPY calls. We wait to see what shakes out. In the meantime, I am going to look at a detailed tech shot of the QQQ to see what is going to happen, be right back.

Tradinginsider

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How I think things will go Tuesday

I've been watching things.

1. Lots of media attention and story coverage telling people not to freak out and this isn't the big one.
2. Lots of volatility yesterday as the market pulled the equivalent of stumbling around a dark room with a blindfold on
3. I think that China is going to lay more things on us. Like a currency or banking problem in the next several days
4. I see that the Asian markets are recovering today, so that is going to take a lot of panic off the table for the US stock market this morning.
5. A lot of people came home from work today/yesterday (day of 1000pt drop dow) and saw their portfolios and freaked out and have sell orders out there. Which are all going to be piled up at open and will execute via computers and cause a gap fade situation during the first 45 minutes of trading.
6. In other words, the market is going to open and dump stocks from overnight sell orders from freaked out people yesterday end of day traders. This will cause the market to initially drop.
7. Then if the Asian markets hold it together overnight, the value buyers are going to step in and start buying. This is going to cause the market to climb for a day or two. Then its going to start to waver. Basic crowd psychology. After the value buying and the little climb upwards, things are going to stall out. People will be wondering, "What is this market really made of? What is the foundation of this market that something could cause this much of a dip? Is this market really safe? What REALLY IS the underlying foundation of the global economy? Is China really slowing down its manufacturing and is its government trying to spackle this over by dumping in currency like we did in our country in 2008?
8. Then with the above market uncertainty, something is going to happen again with China. Round 2 with another market panic, or a bank panic. This is going to start another slide over here on our end. If its not China it will be some other global financial problem. Then a slide.
9. Then there will be the recovery and things will start to go foward marching upwards again.

Below is a representation via a chart of what I feel will happen:

Now remember, the above points depend on the Asian Markets holding it together for the rest of the night. Again...I think there will be an initial drop for about a half hour, then stocks will begin to pull up and will pull for a day or two upward, then there will be more panic and another drop, choppy consolidation, then a resume climb.
Should be an interesting day tomorrow. If there is a climb up, good. Ill exit SPY. If sideways, hold. If a huge drop tomorrow, we look for a bottom again, but this time we will wait until the end of the trading day for a clear candle signal.

Tradinginsider

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We hold SPY

The market is turning down a bit...we will hold our SPY double down. I dont think this is going to be a quick jump back up. More analysis on this towards 4pm central after market close.
I will have a post on the state of the market.

Tradinginsider

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GET OUT...exit QQQ calls same day profit

We are OUT of QQQ call option:

Looking more...I will fill out this post in a bit, moving quick now

Tradinginsider

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Double Down on SPY

Today we do a risky move. We DOUBLE down (twice our usual amount, as in 2 piles of money out of our 15-20 piles) on SPY. I already showed you the bottom candle signal on QQQ, but here is SPY chart:

And here is our in:

That is all for today, we will have an update on the state of the market this evening on this site. Today was a foreshock of the big one coming next year.

Tradinginsider

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Purchase QQQ calls

Today we purchase QQQ 102.50's. Lets look at the chart:

Yeah, a whole lot of panic. And look at that huge bottom candle. It tells me that its time to get in.
Our in:

I

am also about to purchase SPY. I think its time for a double down with SPY...I will keep you up to date.

Tradinginsider

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We may be purchasing some QQQ and SPY calls today.

However we are in the middle of a huge panic. I will wait an hour or so to see if the ship somewhat stabilizes.

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OMG: Markets crashing

I have been watching the markets this morning and the 1000 pt Dow drop right at open and now sitting at -600. More to come as I see what is what...

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Are you Ready for Monday?

Big week last week with a new channel opening and the floor giving away below everyone in the market. In my previous post I had described how I expect the market to drop more on Monday and possibly Tuesday. To get an updated revised last minute forecast on this, 15 minutes before market open on Monday, check the futures for the Dow and Nasdaq. If they are way down, its almost certain we will have another bad day. Way up, then a good day. If just a bit down or a bit up, watch it there could be a reversal after the gap fade in the morning 1/2 hour after market open.
However, it is my opinion based on the candle charts that we are going to continue to bleed. I jumped on board this southbound train with a QQQ put at the end of last week.
Again: I do not feel that this is the big one, instead this is a fore-shock. I expect things to level out by Wed-Thurs with a tentative climb with everyone closely watching the board.
Well, thats it for today,
Stay Frosty,

Tradinginsider

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This is going to be worse than I thought...

There is a strong possibility that the market is going to continue to crater...and we have some QQQ calls out there. Thats fine, when I see the bottom via trading signal, I will simply double down on the QQQ and purchase a call on SPY and ride things back up.
Lots of chicken littles out there think that this is it, and the QQQ weekly says that it is not. Again, thats coming in 2016. Why do I keep saying that the market is going to crash then?
Lets look at the chart for the weekly QQQ:

There. This is what I am basing my data on. The weekly has had a strong upward solid curve and if you continue that trend into the future you can see I marked the months counting off forward into 2016 at the bottom of the chart and if you continue the curve of the weekly candle chart you see a crash occurring  in the later half of 2016 at the point indicated.
I don't think that crash is coming now. However, it is a fore-shock rumble much like before the big one in San Francisco. Its a big rumble because look for the first time the 50 day Moving Average (blue line) got crossed over into. I think that we are going to have a few more down days, then a recovery and things are going to steam onward until we fall off the cliff. I will give you updates as it gets clearer and what you can do to position yourself. For example. How well off would you have been if you had bought leap puts on the major ETFs and some big blue chip stocks and rode the crash all the way down? You would have done very well. This time I intend to do just that.
Also on Monday...I am going to check the premarkets and if I see that they are down with bad headlines about world markets happening, I am jumping in with a SPY put right at open. I was siting here thinking how Im watching the train go down and I'm not on board. I know its anti contrarian, but these big dips dont happen too often. Also I have a call watching my back. I'm gonna dip my toe in the pool with a SPY put at open if I see the pre markets dropping. I think we are going to bleed on Monday. If however, the premarkets are looking rosy, Ill just sit it out.

May you live in exciting times,
Tradinginsider

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Its time to reach down....QQQ calls!

and get ahold of yourself. Think: does buying call options sound completely batshit to you today? Does even thinking about that set off that safety monkey screaming in your ear to stop, what are you doing/thinking about?
Is there blood in the streets today? Well then, it just may be time to make the contrarian move of buying a call option on the QQQ. Lets look at the chart:

Not lookin good. I see we broke the 200 day MA which is a big bear signal with a gap down. I still think this etf has a bit more to go down.
But not by much. Im gonna throw in a call option here just to protect ourselves in case this bounces back some on Monday as this bleed off is starting to move into oversold panic levels. I think we are going to slow down consolidate on Monday-Tues and then there will be an up day. If I have to, I will double down early next week on some calls. And a 1x call today for a possible upside early next week. I dont want to miss the bounce, and again I can cover this with a double down if there is a further drop with a definate bottom signal from a candle.
So, my in:

I am not going to the lists today because I need to see a bottom first, then we can start bouncing other options. I am leaving now to go to a string of appts and wont be back until 2:45. If I see anything last minute, I will put it up before close. Remember, sign up on my twitter for any last minute updates.

Tradinginsider

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update in progress

Going through stocks now...

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So whats happening here? Is the Market going to full on crash?

Short answer: No.

Long Answer: The market is just channeling down blowing off steam. The big crash is going to come next year. Lets take a look at the charts:
First we start with the QQQ daily chart:

Oh man, that is NOT good. Thursday's candle touched the red line 200 moving day average and it dropped so severely that its almost breaking its own channel. Plus the candle is so severe (long with almost no tails) that it looks like things are just going to keep going down. I do not see a bottom yet. Wow.
Lets take a look at the weekly:

Yup. Its a blip down, like in the one that I circled earlier. People are thinking that this is it. Nope. What IS gonna happen however is a down week for a good part of next week as well, and at some part of next week, maybe wed-thurs there is going to be a bottom candle like we see in that first box to the left in the weekly and then things will keep going up from there,.The big one? Not until next year so chill. By next year you will be protected by put leaps. I am thinking put leaps on the main ETFs., and some blue chips like Apple and Google.

More tomorrow,
Tradinginsider

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Its Time to cut our losses and.....

Ive had a few trades that have been dogging me and its time to let them go. 2 for IMMU and 1 for GDP. The below are our outs:

Well there you have it, we are out with our 3 option picks, each with basically 100% losses. I wonder what thats going to do to my record. Ever get a zero on a test and try to average that into your grade point average? Its like mixing in an atomic bomb in your pile of fireworks. So what went wrong? I know right off the bat what I did wrong with GDP: I simply looked at its technical s and not the underlying market forces: Oil was crashing, pure and simple. It was going to keep going down as a result, it wasn't bouncable and I did not look at that. What went wrong with IMMU?  It got hit by a downgrade by Jeffries. I broke my own rules with it.

My rules:
Never touch a stock that just got a downgrade. If you are in the middle of a bounce with it and it gets a downgrade, get rid of it immediatly.
Never touch a stock that just reported earnings. It tends to go in the same direction 2 days after earnings and stays there for a while after its earnings show.

So: I apologize and the machine keeps running on. What I like to do when something goes wrong is examine it like investigators after a plane accident. Put it all back together, see what went wrong and make sure it doesnt happen again by changing things in advance. So from this point on, I will always be aware of the underlying foundation of a stock, and I will never again mess around with downgrades. Or play with a stock right after its earnings.
I by the way am holding onto that other GDP call for Sept. Maybe oil will come back in the next month, who knows, the option is almost worthless now anyway, erosion cant hurt us anymore.

So the machine rolls on. I like to be as transparent as possible and let you know what went wrong, how and why after something does go wrong.
I wonder what my record is? Im going to have to compile everything and see whats what. One good thing, with that 100% gain from yesterdays QQQ put, at least I cancelled out one of the above big losses. So that just leaves me with two fails.
Again, this is why you want your money in 15 piles. Preferrably 20 piles. I am not perfect. Even though I do kick ass in the long term. It reminds me of that Matthew McConaughey movie "Two For the Money" he did with Al Pacino in 2005ish. He was running a string of good sports pics and pushing them on guys who worked in restaurants, etc. Then there was the big loss. I remember one scene where this guy who worked in the service industry was calling him up on a payphone crying with his new ferrari next to him. He told Matthew that his last pick destroyed him and now he has nothing. "Oh, now you got nothing snazzy to say? Huh? Now no more fast talking bullshit?" Matthew just sat on the phone stunned. It turns out that this guy was taking 100% of his money ON EACH PICK MCCONAUGHEY gave him.
I don't care how good any source of info you receive is. Nothing is 100%, and if you operate this way in the stock market, in a casino, or in any proposition in business, there is a 100% chance you will lose part or all of your money.
So if you follow me, I am going to have some crazy big winners. I will also have some crazy big losses. I do not operate in the uptight buttoned down world of safety. I think safety sucks. Its boring, predictable and while it eliminates the lowest lows, it ALSO ELIMINATES THE HIGHEST HIGHS. Like that high when you put 1,000 dollars into Starbucks put options 2 days before it reports earnings and sure enough, earnings are crap and suddenly you have 5,000. Or 100,000 to 500,000. Suddenly you are going on vacation or buying a nice new Range Rover. I have a friend that took 5,000 dollars and traded his way up to $115,000 by trading loose and from the hip and it took him about 8 months to accomplish that, with big wins and big losses. So one day I mentioned that he should cash out, take the money and lock it in and build that house addition that he wanted. He did just that. What if he had played it safe? He would have had to take out a second mortgage and pay if off over 10-20 years with interest to a bank. I like the way he did it better. I choose not to live in the shadows because one day I will be lying in a box, and what did I accomplish? How to be safe and work in a cubicle and keep my head down? Thats not what I want to see when Im lying in my deathbed and reviewing my life.
The one thing that almost everyone lying on their deathbed says is "I wish I took more chances. I wish I took the time to reconnect with my friends/ took a chance to try to make up with people I hurt. I wish I didnt work so hard. And for what? Here I am. I wish I asked that girl out. I wish I Lived life more instead of sitting in a cubicle for 50 hours a week.
Thats some useful advice. Really think hard about that. Pretend you are 90 and dying in bed. What do you wish you did?
Now back to the present. Now DO those things, because you just got a second chance, you are no longer 90 laying in bed.

Tradinginsider

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Exit our QQQ Put option from yesterday

I was right on the direction of the market, and it paid off. We made over 100% on our QQQ Put from yesterday, and here is our out:

Im not totally stoked because now I have to exit IMMU and GDP for big losses. Then I am going to have an indepth post later tonight on how I went wrong on each one of those two, and how to avoid that again....

Still looking around here, be right back...
Tradinginsider

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Update in Progress

Checking the issues....

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I feel the techs say more of a drop....

And that is why I am going to issue a put on the QQQ:

The techs just look plain weak.

Tomorrow things will be more clear. But for now, lets go to those charts. Lets look at a chart of the QQQ:

The current candle is a middling candle and could go either way. However because its in a new downward channel, and because 3/4s of the time when you get this candle, things go down the next day, I rolled the bones and said down for Thurs.


Tradinginsider

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