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Thursday, January 8, 2015

QQQ Option Spread for Thursday 1/8

So in taking a look at the markets action this morning, I am looking heavily at the fact that the cubes have just made a w bottom on the daily chart.

This hasnt happened recently and it is a powerful bull signal. However, as I mentioned in yesterdays post I do think that there is problems brewing in the underlying foundation of the stock market as shown in the weekly chart:

You can see, the market is having a longer term problem with the RSI gradually deflating and the MACD winding down. It does look like there is going to be a temporary push up in the northern direction but I thing that there is going to be overall problems.
While considering my spread I had to heavily weigh in on the problem that there was a double bottom on the daily chart for the cubes. In most situations this is usually a very bullish signal, especially when a stock has been dropping for a while and is looking for the bottom before it resumes its climb. However in this instance, there was no big drop that lasted for weeks or months. A double bottom usually occurs when a stock has been crashing for quite a while, has come in for a landing, and there was two bounces at the bottom then it resumes its course back up.
For this reason I am not attributing that much wieght to the mid or high level double bottom. However, I am going to be cautious with it.
So in this light I am not going to issue a 1:3 options ratio, but a 1:2 options ratio. I am going to recommend a straddle with the call being half of the put, or the put being twice the size of the call. With this excellent configuration we are covered on both ends: If the double bottom does do something crazy and really meant the bottom and now the cubes are off to the races, it will cover our 2x puts. If what I think is going to happen, the puts are gonna make bank, but not until we get a little pip upwards with our calls that we can sell off. I will be watching the upward action carefully.

And now for the orders:Here is the call...and remember this is 1/2 the size of the next order.

QQQ Jan 2015 103.000 call (QQQ150109C00103000)

 -OPR  
0.71 Up 0.10(111.11%) 2:53PM EST
Prev Close:0.09
Open:0.19
Bid:0.69
Ask:0.71
Strike:103.00
Expire Date:9-Jan-15
Day's Range:0.17 - 0.76
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:11,155
Open Interest:6,821









And here is the put, which will be twice as big as the call:

QQQ Feb 2015 103.000 call (QQQ150220C00103000)

 -OPR  
2.58 Up 0.30(18.18%) 3:02PM EST
Prev Close:1.65
Open:1.95
Bid:2.58
Ask:2.59
Strike:103.00
Expire Date:20-Feb-15
Day's Range:1.95 - 2.63
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:4,369
Open Interest:20,201









So if you bought the call for 500, the put you spend 1,000 on. 1g, then 2g. 5 g, then 10 on the put. Double check these: The call is for Jan and the Put is for Feb. I decided to go out a bit to feb because the call will occur first based on the chart and that protects us from erosion.

Thats all for today. If you are in the midwest like I am, try to stay warm.
Mark

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