This hasnt happened recently and it is a powerful bull signal. However, as I mentioned in yesterdays post I do think that there is problems brewing in the underlying foundation of the stock market as shown in the weekly chart:
You can see, the market is having a longer term problem with the RSI gradually deflating and the MACD winding down. It does look like there is going to be a temporary push up in the northern direction but I thing that there is going to be overall problems.
While considering my spread I had to heavily weigh in on the problem that there was a double bottom on the daily chart for the cubes. In most situations this is usually a very bullish signal, especially when a stock has been dropping for a while and is looking for the bottom before it resumes its climb. However in this instance, there was no big drop that lasted for weeks or months. A double bottom usually occurs when a stock has been crashing for quite a while, has come in for a landing, and there was two bounces at the bottom then it resumes its course back up.
For this reason I am not attributing that much wieght to the mid or high level double bottom. However, I am going to be cautious with it.
So in this light I am not going to issue a 1:3 options ratio, but a 1:2 options ratio. I am going to recommend a straddle with the call being half of the put, or the put being twice the size of the call. With this excellent configuration we are covered on both ends: If the double bottom does do something crazy and really meant the bottom and now the cubes are off to the races, it will cover our 2x puts. If what I think is going to happen, the puts are gonna make bank, but not until we get a little pip upwards with our calls that we can sell off. I will be watching the upward action carefully.
And now for the orders:Here is the call...and remember this is 1/2 the size of the next order.
QQQ Jan 2015 103.000 call (QQQ150109C00103000)
-OPR Watchlist
0.71 0.10(111.11%) 2:53PM EST
Prev Close: | 0.09 |
---|---|
Open: | 0.19 |
Bid: | 0.69 |
Ask: | 0.71 |
Strike: | 103.00 |
Expire Date: | 9-Jan-15 |
Day's Range: | 0.17 - 0.76 |
---|---|
Contract Range: | N/A - N/A |
Volume: | 11,155 |
Open Interest: | 6,821 |
And here is the put, which will be twice as big as the call:
QQQ Feb 2015 103.000 call (QQQ150220C00103000)
-OPR Watchlist
2.58 0.30(18.18%) 3:02PM EST
Prev Close: | 1.65 |
---|---|
Open: | 1.95 |
Bid: | 2.58 |
Ask: | 2.59 |
Strike: | 103.00 |
Expire Date: | 20-Feb-15 |
Day's Range: | 1.95 - 2.63 |
---|---|
Contract Range: | N/A - N/A |
Volume: | 4,369 |
Open Interest: | 20,201 |
So if you bought the call for 500, the put you spend 1,000 on. 1g, then 2g. 5 g, then 10 on the put. Double check these: The call is for Jan and the Put is for Feb. I decided to go out a bit to feb because the call will occur first based on the chart and that protects us from erosion.
Thats all for today. If you are in the midwest like I am, try to stay warm.
Mark
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