Winning

Winning

Friday, January 2, 2015

Why oil is tanking and heading for 50 dollars/barrel

You may be enjoying filling your car for 30 dollars again like in the old days instead of spending 65 dollars or more. That SUV you have suddenly required a second mortgage to fill your tank lately and now prices are down to a reasonable level. Remember when gas was over 4 dollars a gallon? The savings are helping people to the tune of over 100 million dollars a day in the United States alone.
So whats the deal? Why are gas prices tanking?

1. Opec wants to wipe out competition. The fracking, the drilling here in the United States, the secondary producers. If the price of oil drops like Wile E Coyote going over a cliff with a rocket fridge strapped to his back, these secondary producers arent nessesary as the cost to frack/drill/develop news technologies and wells are going to be cost prohibitive.

2. The World is stalling. And this is bad news. The actual demand from 1st and 2nd world countries is actually dropping, which is an economic indicator of a sick world economy. OPEC has said it will not cut back production even though demand is now getting sluggish. More barrels sitting around that no one wants=dropping prices.

3. The US dollar is strengthening. Binky Chadha, chief global strategist at Deutsche Bank, argues that the strong dollar is the primary factor in oil’s decline. After all, oil supplies have been building for a long time. It’s hard to believe that investors just “suddenly woke up” to the oil glut at midyear, he said.
Oil’s plunge started not long after the dollar rally began to accelerate, Chada notes, observing that it usually takes a rallying dollar a year and a half to cover the ground it’s gained in the last five months, Chadha told reporters earlier this month, which might make finding a bottom in oil “a function of where the dollar stalls.”

So enjoy those low gas prices. We may even see gas drop below 2 dollars, as we have in some outlying suburbs around chicago. Ah, late 1990's prices.

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