About Risk: Avoid it and Perish

There are some people out there that don't prefer risk. They like to play it safe. Have a safe job, don't rock the boat, keep your head down, take the paycheck and make it through another day.

Living like this is dangerous, almost as dangerous as being a thief or a bank robber. While the difference is pretty apparent at first glance, you are really stealing from yourself.
Our ancestors didnt play it safe. They came over to this country and were looking at woods and mountains with bad weather and no building materials, food, or anyway to make a living. They risked it all to grow and expand. If they didn't, they would perish in that first hard winter. It was do or die.
Risk is currency. Risk will allow you to push your boundaries and grow. Without it it can be dangerous because other people will not see you as a commodity, someone they can use for the business, someone that should be promoted. If you play it safe and take a check from someone else, at any time that person can fire you. Its like being in sales and only having one huge customer. They go, there's the business.
On the other hand, if you are working for someone else and using that as a stepping stone while you are building your own business and expanding your horizons and not sleeping through every day, you are expending the necessary energy in order to better yourself and get ahead. Ever wonder why people that work behind a deli have a dead look in their eyes? Its because they gave up and accepted thier prison. They mark days off the calendar waiting for their paycheck. Months and years fly by for these people because they spend each day trying to get each day behind them, and every day is the same. Its like lighting the currency of your life, time, on fire.

How much risk should one take? Consider the chart below:

You can see that the correct risk zone is skewed over to the right, towards the high side. That is because life requires you to kick ass and push your hand through the plastic wrap. You have to make waves. You have to DO THINGS THAT MAKE YOU UNCOMFORTABLE. You have to work hard at your business so you dont have to work for someone else and be in charge of your own destiny. Don't have money? Pick up the phone and start dialing for dollars. There is a book out called "Selling to VITO" or very important person. It shows you how to call someone and get past their secretary and get them on the phone and ask them for money. I guarantee that probably has never happened to them like that and 1 in 25 will admire your guts and might actually listen to you. Will it be comfortable? HELL NO.
What do you want in life? Do you want more? Then you cannot expend the output of a normal person. First, you cant work for anyone else. And if you are, when you get home you work on your business that YOU want to launch. Dont come home and zone out with the TV. Work on your business so that you can fire your boss and work for yourself. Another book you should look at: GirlBoss. How a girl with hustle opened up an EBAY shop then from it launched a clothing empire. One more book: Crush IT. How to start a business using social media with no money or startup costs besides a website (that you can build for free using webstarts.com). These books will teach you how to do it.
The No risk zone on the chart above to the left is the no balls zone. That's where you are living in a crappy little apartment with a 10 year old car and 1 or 2 friends and no girlfriend/boyfriend because you have no social proof. Thats when things break and you cant afford to replace them and the ship goes down. Very dangerous. The car is gonna break, the landlord will raise the rent, and your paycheck is cost controlled because you go nowhere at work or don't attempt to train for a new career or start your own business. The area to the right is the gangster area. That is very dangerous as well due to possible incarceration, murder, and a generally chaotic life that is too full of risk. Maybe you end up in a trunk at the bottom of a river. Maybe you end up with a big cellmate.
You must risk. You must risk to grow, and risk means you are uncomfortable as you press on into the unknown. But that is where the money is.

Tradinginsider
www.the1045report.com

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l see a last minute deal and Cubes Forecast for Wed.

I dont know what it is, but I see both sides furiously working on the Greece issue, and I think something is gonna be hammered out at the zerio hour. As of 1am, the deadline passes. But I dont think that Germany wants to see a default- so both sides are going to do something that will be unexpected. I can see the headline now: Temporary Greece Deal Reached.
So that is what I was going on today. Now lets take a look at the QQQ and see how things actually closed up:

Looks like the double hammer is still in place, however a bit altered from earlier today when I issued the call. I would have preferred a no tail on the top of today's candle, and I would prefer todays candle to be white and not overshadowed by the red.
So: What to expect tommorrow: Very BIG Chop. The market is going to open. Its going to fly up then back down after the gap is faded, then things will be uncertain going into the afternoon. After lunch, things will be more clear. Then at the end of the day or the day after, I think a deal will be hammered out.
Due to the fact that things will be all over the place I will be making a post within 10 minutes after open for an update, so be there. I might have to exit my calls if the gap jumps at open. I really dont want to hold when I see an opportunity for exit. And in looking foward and seeing this coming, I want to be there with my finger on the trigger. See you at 8am Chicago Central Time, 7am New York Time, 9 mountain and 10am for all you slackers in L.A.

Tradinginsider

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For today: Less is More

I think we are just going to let Tues and those QQQ option ride and see what happens with this market. Hopefully some kind of decision will be made with Greece and its creditors, and things will climb from there.
How optimistic, you must think. I am going from the aspect of human nature and negotiation exasperation. I think now both sides are ready to work.

So: For today, QQQ Calls
                        TUES Calls

See the individual posts for in information.

More towards close,
Tradinginsider

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New Pick TUES

Today I am looking at the downlists because I expect the market to wander on up in the next day or two. Or three. C'mon Greece.
So TUES today announced that its CFO left for another company: (From the Motley Fool):

Is Tuesday Morning's plunge meaningful? Or just another movement?

 

What: Shares of Tuesday Morning Corporation (NASDAQ:TUES) were down 11.8% as of noon Tuesday after the deep-discount retailer announced CFO Jeffrey Boyer will resign effective July 22, 2015.

So what: Tuesday Morning Corp.'s press release states Boyer made the decision to "pursue other professional opportunities." But that opportunity was quickly identified this morning via a separate press release from higher-end competitor Pier 1 Imports, which announced it will appoint Boyer as its own CFO effective July 27, 2015. Tuesday Morning said it expects Vice President and Controller Kelly Munsch to cover the company's accounting and finance functions until Boyer's replacement is hired. Boyer had been with Tuesday Morning since 2013.

Now what: Investors are understandably disappointed Boyer left for Pier 1, especially considering Tuesday Morning is still striving to turn its business around amid continued quarterly losses. In April, Tuesday Morning missed analysts' expectations for revenue, which fell 3.8% year-over-year to $189.7 million, but met estimates on the bottom line with a narrowed net loss of $2.8 million, or $0.06 per share. To its credit, the latter figure was a big improvement over the $0.20-per-share loss Tuesday Morning achieved in the year-ago period.

Even so, I can't blame investors for taking a step back today given Boyer's timely transition to greener pastures. Though Tuesday Morning might well pull off its turnaround in the coming quarters, I'm content watching its progress from the sidelines until it can show more evidence of its ability to achieve sustained long-term profitability.

To this I say, hey. At least its not the CEO. I believe this is an overreaction. But lets take a look at the charts. Can we catch this falling knife?

Not too good. In looking at it you can clearly see that the stock is on the way down. However, look at the boxes/arrows. What do you see here each time there was a pretty big drop. Afterwards, some buying and consolidation and a bit up. Thats what I think will happen here as well. Plus, the news is not catastrophc, it almost appear to be an excuse to drop, almost like a pressure release valve as this stock has not been performing. I am going to attempt a bounce play here and exit tommorrow or the day after depending on how this flies. Not one of my higher percentage bounce plays, but I am interested to see how good I am.

Above is my order. The volume isnt that high but the last price is between the bid and ask. 

The search for more money continues,

Tradinginsider

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Lets take a Gamble

I feel like Gambling today. My sixth sense is also standing on end with Greece.
This is the 3rd last hour attempt to hammer something out in the meetings with Greece and the EU and Germany. Everyone is exhausted and I think a lot of the fight has gone out of both sides. This is when the true work can start taking place. At this point of the negotiations the square off is wearing off, and expectations are kicking in. I think that something tentative is going to be worked out overnight and while not a total fix in the long run, the markets are ready to grab ahold of anything.
That and the fact that I saw a double hammer setup.
So I took a look at the proshares QQQ and I didnt like the volume/strike price so I decided to stick with the regular cubes and I purchased a call:

We will hold this hopefully for a day or two. If things work out, this could be a good bounceback.

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Possible Bottom developing today with QQQ

Today I am watching a potential bottom developing today in the cubes. Lets take a look:

While it is still early in the day, we will be watching this toward close. If today's candle is still displaying a reverse hammer 1 half hour before close, I am going to get in with some call options. But I am going to do so cautiously, because I don't think that the parade is gonna start tomorrow, I still sense chop coming. I will be watching this today as well as market news that would impact the NASDAQ for tomorrow and then make a decision a half hour before market close.
Stay tuned for my action,

Tradinginsider

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Update in Progress

Update in progress...seeing a reverse double hammer in the cubes, looking for other opps.

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Importance of Time and Family

"You may Delay, but Time Will Not"-Benjamin Franklin

What is the reason you invest? To make money? To get off the 9 to 5 treadmill? You don't invest because the Market is like a cool board game, you invest because you want more time. Time with the ones you love. Your family. While spending time with them is great, it is better if you can spend ON them. There is nothing like spreading the love as spreading the wealth. You love your family. Would you rather have limited resources so when they need help, you can't help them? That makes you inept.
Time moves on and you don't have time to be stuck in a holding pattern at some dead end job. Thats not respecting you or your family. Get out there and hustle. Get out there and LOOK. What are you good at? What could you create and sell?
https://www.google.com/#q=everyone+is+good+at+something+that+can+make+them+money

You are here to make yourself and your position better in life. Grow.

Tradinginsider
www.the1045report.com

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Lets make even more money

We have been playing the QQQ Nasdaq, in a contrarian manner which so far has been producing bank. But you might ask, is there a way to make even more money? Just so happens that there is. The QQQ Proshares.

Now Only Provider Offering Daily 3x and -3x ETFs on Five Most Traded Broad U.S. Market Indexes

Bethesda, MD, February 11, 2010 — ProFunds Group, the world's largest manager of leveraged and inverse funds¹, announced today that it is launching eight new ProShares ETFs. A pair of ETFs, one with a daily 3x objective and one with a daily -3x objective (before fees and expenses), is being launched on each of the following indexes: the NASDAQ-100®, Dow Jones Industrial Average®, S&P MidCap 400^TM and Russell 2000®. Three of the pairs will list today on NYSE Arca and one on The NASDAQ Stock Market®.

With today’s launch, ProShares becomes the first and only ETF provider offering ETFs with daily 3x and -3x objectives on each of the NASDAQ-100, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P MidCap 400 and the S&P 500. ProShares previously launched ETFs offering daily 3x and 3x exposure to the S&P 500 in 2009. ProShares offerings now include 3x and -3x ETFs for each of the five most traded broad U.S. indexes.²

"Many savvy investors believe that taking advantage of tactical allocation opportunities will be the key to successful investing in the near term. These new ETFs provide knowledgeable investors with additional tools to act on short-term moves in popular U.S. indexes," said Michael L. Sapir, Chairman and CEO of ProShare Advisors LLC, ProShares' investment advisor.

ProShares	Ticker Symbol	Index	Objective*	Exchange
New +3x UltraPro ProShares
UltraPro QQQ	TQQQ	NASDAQ-100 Index	+300% Daily	NASDAQ
UltraPro Dow30	UDOW	Dow Jones Industrial Average	+300% Daily	NYSE Arca
UltraPro MidCap400	UMDD	S&P MidCap 400 Index	+300% Daily	NYSE Arca
UltraPro Russell2000	URTY	Russell 2000 Index	+300% Daily	NYSE Arca
New -3x UltraPro ProShares
UltraPro Short QQQ	SQQQ	NASDAQ-100 Index	-300% Daily	NASDAQ
UltraPro Short Dow30	SDOW	Dow Jones Industrial Average	-300% Daily	NYSE Arca
UltraPro Short MidCap400	SMDD	S&P MidCap 400 Index	-300% Daily	NYSE Arca
UltraPro Short Russell2000	SRTY	Russell 2000 Index	-300% Daily	NYSE Arca
Existing +3x and -3x UltraPro ProShares
UltraPro S&P500	UPRO	S&P 500 Index	+300% Daily	NYSE Arca
UltraPro Short S&P500	SPXU	S&P 500 Index	-300% Daily	NYSE Arca

*Before fees and expenses

The QQQ Proshares are still around and its a great way to further leverage your option money. Its movements are more exaggerated and the options bounce around more. As a matter of fact, I will be timing the bottom of this thing by following both the news of Greece and the technicals to get in and make some money using this ETF instead of just purchasing a call on the cubes, to give you guys the flavor of extra coin.  Although in this environment, I dont expect that much of a bounce up, but the ETF will make more money going up than just the straight QQQ. I wouldnt use these for any long term placings, but as the man said in the article above, for short term moves, this is great. So check out the above chart, click on some of its links, compare the QQQ chart to the Proshares chart (QQQ vs TQQQ) and look at the last couple of weeks and see the difference. Now check out the options chain. Nice and liquid. 

So tomorrow, we will read the markets and watch for a bottom whether it be tomorrow or the next couple of days. Look at www.the1045report.com for a market snapshot with chart pic.

Tomorrow we mine more from the Markets,

Tradinginsider

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How long will the rout continue?

In looking at the technical today I do not see a bottom happening tomorrow, I think the drop is going to continue as the market is assimilating the Greece news with everyone looking around in a panic looking for the exit. Lets look at the chart:

Two words: Not Good. A couple of things wrong with this chart.
1. I dont see a bottom tail on todays gap down candle. That shows more problems ahead.
2. The top indicator, the RSI is still trending down
3. The bottom indicator, the MACD while a trailing indicator is still trending downward
4. In investors minds, shit is still up in the air. Whats the deal about Greece? How will this affect the world markets? What if this is the beginning of a chain reaction with Italy and Spain?

So. It is my opinion that this is the first crack in the dam. Remember I pointed towards a crash in 2016? I think its going to be a world event and it will trigger in Europe. I will write a post on this later.
As for tommorrow, I would say stay to the side and watch. Why didnt I buy puts for today? Because there is no value in it. The Contrarian value to purchase puts would have been June 15-17th when the cubes were flashing graveyard candle markers. Thats when puts would have been cheap and right now they are fat as hell, and would be a great time to sell them.

Tradinginsider

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No more trades today and ALDR

I have gotten some good coin today, however in looking at the top lists, I have decided to suspend any more bounce trading and my rationale is this: If a stock could crank up through a total down day like this, there must be something very strong about the stock. I then went through them all and found that to be the case.
One stock caught by eye: Alder Biopharm. I saw that they are issueing 4 million more shares (secondary offering) of stock and that they are priced at 44 dollars. There was also an offer to institutional buyers as well. I decided not to touch this as I felt that there was something else going on behind the scenes, perhaps something that the company was trying to raise money for, and some big block buyers knew what was coming down the pipeline for this stock to be up 4 dollars past at 48 dollars and climbing, especially on a bad day.
There might be some bait stocks out there that might be screaming short me! Short me! But don't you grab them unless you are 96% confident you know what you are doing. I sense a disturbance in the force with this one, especially to be up like this on a day like this.

Later today we we will take a look at the market as a whole and the QQQ and what will be coming up tomorrow and later in the week. Will things continue to bleed? How can we make money on this?

Tradinginsider

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Sell GDOT put

While we are holding a straddle right now, seeing that the market is down big due to the greec situation, I decided to take the money on the put end of it. As for the call, hold that and I will decide what to do with that later. For now, the money:

We were in at 1.40 for a gain on our put of 24%. Now while we locked THAT in, the overall for this trade is conditional depending on what we end up doing with the call.

More to come,

Tradinginsider

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TNXP Exit for profit

Lets look at TNXP today:

It is significantly down from when we bought the puts when the stock was at 10. Below is the order when I jumped into it (observe the bid and ask) and below that is the exit today (bid and ask).
Here was my in:

And here is todays out:

With this we were in at 1.55 and out at 1.90. The reason you see the 2.60 last is because the volume was a bit low and there wasnt a lot of trading hands and at the time those were the last prices. But notice the bid and the ask, that was/is the current spread, and the trading range.

More to come
Tradinginsider

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Update on YANG

Correction...I just made a blunder and had a typo on yang last friday. If you reread my post on friday on yang, I knew that the chinese stock market was in a bubble and was about to burst, I knew the market was going to go down. I accidentally marked down "puts" on this bear ETF instead of "calls" as I should have. My logic was sound about the stock, I just mistakenly did the inverse: this is a bear stock which goes up when the market drops,  For those of you that caught that, you just made 47 percent over the weekend with your calls. For those of you that didnt catch that, keep following me and you will remake that and more over the next 7 days.

Again, I apologize for the mixup. 

Dunce hat,

Tradinginsider

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Sell NKE 110 July Puts for 29% Profit

Sell the July 110 NKE puts...we make an over weekend profit of 29%:

This is aided no doubt by whats happening in the markets right now with Greece, but yes I knew that and thats the whole point of this site. Stay tuned for more today.

Tradinginsider

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Heads Up: Monday is going to be in the red

With this new news of the Greek Crisis worsening, things are not looking too good for Monday. On Sunday it was announced that the Greek banks would be closed Monday as well as the Greek stock market. D day for Greece means D day for the Markets Monday as the markets don't like news like this. Its very unsettling as everything can back up on everything else while at the same time shining the light on other countries that may have unstable markets. Perhaps even shine the light on our national debt or weakening dollar. Its like telling someone that is already a bit shaky about being in the graveyard at night that you think you just saw a ghost. Who knows what is going to happen.
It doesn't look like any last minute deal is going to be reached on Monday either. Greece just had nothing to bring to the table and they are refusing the concessions that Germany and other EU lenders are demanding.
So my advice on Monday is if you have puts or shorts, think about selling them when things really start dropping. Take the money. Also Monday will probably be a bad day to try anything new or long or learning how to trade or anything like that. Sit it out and watch the turmoil.
I took off my tech analysis section on my site, www.the1045report.com as we are now in a news cycle with the news over technicals. So tomorrow, what I am going to do is watch, possibly sell some puts and make some money on the down the market will most likely experience.
As the market open nears, you will be able to verify this by looking at the premarkets. Look at the futures, look at other indicators and if you see a lot of red, this is the way it will probably go. The last half our before open is usually pretty solid.
As a matter of fact my friend knew this guy who did this: 15 minutes before open he checked the premarkets. If they were down, he did nothing and played golf all day. If they were up, he called his broker and moved his 100,000 grand into the market for the day (I presume blue chips) with an order to his broker to move in the 100 grand at open and sell right before close. Then he played golf all day.
He did this every trading day and at the end of the year he would usually make 100% for the year, as in another 100 grand. The last 15 minutes before open looking at the premarkets will give you a pretty good indication.

Until the morning,
Tradinginsider

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Q and A with the 1045 report's Founder

Hey everyone. A little bit about myself.

A: How did you get started in this?
Q: I was actually doing it part time as a hobby. I had a friend who was into the markets and we were looking into options. As I got to know more and more about the market I became interested in Steve Nisson's Candlesticks books and schooled myself on options as they are a great way to gain leverage with smaller amounts of money. I think a lot of people don't understand that options are really 4th dimensional: They have an element of time. And most of them expire worthless which shows people really know how to use them correctly

A: Do you have an edge?
Q: Yes. You might have noticed in following me that I keep winning with most of my trades. You might think that's a bit odd, but let me tell you a story of when I was a kid. I would play Candy Land, a board game with my dad. Before I came downstairs, I would rig the deck: I put the rainbow bridge card as the second card, then bring the entire game downstairs, ask him to play and then have him go first so that the second card would be drawn when it was my turn. I would get the rainbow card then take the rainbow bridge with my game piece and advance all the way around the curve 10 moves ahead. My dad caught on the 3rd time with this and said "Hey this time YOU go first," while laughing and caught me. Remember the online craze with Texas hold em in 07-09? Turns out that before the gov outlawed it, there were some former employees that had a backdoor program in UB (Ultimate Bet) and they stole millions from people and funneled it to offshore banks.
People need and want an edge. Otherwise they are just like everyone else with no edge, going back and forth to a mediocre to bad paying job wearing cheap clothes. Most people who get an edge have to lie or steal.
But the way I do it? People willingly give me what I need without complaint or calling the cops. Its like walking down the street and people walk up and give me a bag of money then keep walking.
Here is my edge: I make money on Greed and Fear. The trading crowd runs one way, I run the other way and take the overvalued or undervalued stock at a discount. The next day when peoples heads grow calmer and they can logically look at the stock and see it is miss valued, the stock bounces back to the correct valuation and I make a bag of money. Sometimes over night.
Remember 9/11? The day of and the day after remember the airline stocks dropped like 90%? Everyone thought in thier panic that it was it for airlines. Can't fly anymore. No one will fly on them anymore. I sat there and thought, thats ridiculous. People are just freaking out. Do people really believe we wont be commercially flying anymore? Its back to boats to go to Europe? No. I bought a spread of calls that were totally flattened in price. When the airlines started to come back in price the next few days, I got a bag of cash.
Q: So if everyone has Greed and Fear, what, you don't?
A: Yes, I have Greed and Fear. However I set them aside. Not only do I set them aside, I watch the crowds and stocks. Im LOOKING for overreactions and underreactions as a rule. Thats how I trade. Most traders are just looking for opportunity to make money. Things happen, they panic or pile on. While they are looking for trades, I am at the side of the room and looking at traders. To which way are they running to? I run the other way and pick up the money left on the table. I love bubbles in any market, because the public is always wrong and I am standing there waiting for it. Housing? When the bubble was happening and everyone was rushing into it in 05-06 I stood there doing nothing. When it popped in 07 I waited until it got really bad in 09. When there was blood in the streets and everyone was moaning. Thats when a Contrarian jumps in when everyone swears they will never touch housing again and purchases houses for 40% off. Then sells them after they bounce back in 2012.
Its a different layer that I operate on. I sit, watch and look for opportunities. And to trade like this provides a big edge because fear and greed will always be there, so there will always be overvaluations when people are greedy and undervaluations when they fear and oversell past the proper valuation.
Q: Do you use anything else?
A: I use Candlecharts from stockcharts.com. Ive learned about technical charting over the last 15 years, so I am pretty proficient in it. I understand the indicators, and the candles, each which gives me a good chance to know what teh stock is about to do next. I combine this with the stocks fundementals and its earnings history as well as analysts forecasts. Then I look at the crowd. All of this put together gives me about an 80-85% success rate in my trades. That means I can make money long term. In contrast, when I first started, I had no clue. I would buy and sell blind on a whim. I lost long term doing that.
Q: Do you have a main site?
A: Yes. Follow me on www.the1045report.com to watch my trades in action, updated every day. While I run this blog, that is my main site.

Follow me and learn to do as I do,

Tradinginsider

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The Crash of 2016: Are you in position?

I would like to start this post out with a video clip from Wall Street 2: Electric Bugaloo (The return of Gordon Gekko? I forgot the title) where they are describing what will happen to the economy when the crash just happened in 2008 if the government does nothing:

                                       

All this will happen and more most likely in 2016 because that trillion that the government injected into the economy to stop the crash was just a bandaid. All the underlying forces that caused the crash in 2008 still brewing under the cap. For example we are no longer on the gold standard so that the bankers could print more money and loan more money and make more money while the gov just keeps printing more money, to the tune of billions a month in order to keep things floating. The problem with that is this: Imagine you are playing monopoly and there is 10,000 dollars in the center of the game for the entire game. Each player gets money divided up and there remains money in the bank. The economy of the game hums along as you play it. Certain places you land are worth a certain amount, things you build on them like hotels and houses are worth a certain amount, all based on the net worth and the economic machines of the market based on that monetary fund, or pool. Suddenly another 50,000 grand comes into the game and gets placed in the middle. That starts to devalue all the money that is currently in play.suddenly prices start to rise as that 20 in your pocket is not worth that much. As a matter of fact, due to inflation, what you could purchase in 1900 for two cents would cost 1 dollar today. Think about that.  Remember going to McDonald's 15 years ago and paying $3.85 for a value meal? That same value meal is now $7.85.  Because what is it backed upon? Funny money that the US just keeps printing backed on nothing but the "full faith and credit" of the United States when we are close to defaulting on our world loans? Our currency used to be backed on Gold.  Gold had limits because it physically exists in the world in only a certain amount, therefore causing its INTRINSIC value due to its scarcity.  In the entire world there is only an 165 thousand metric tones of gold. This small amount in comparison to other elements makes Gold very valuable.  So how much Gold is 165,000 tonnes?

In order to put it in scale, the below graphic will help:

Thats a lot less than you thought, isnt it. And to make matters worse, China is hording gold as the United States is losing gold in order to pay interest on its debt to china. Read about that here. You can see that our money is now changed after we took it off the gold standard in the early 70's:

When our money was backed with physical gold, our economy was much more solid. As soon as Nixon took us off the gold standard, huge inflation was the result in the mid 70's as well as a depressed stock market.
All the above forces are leading to another huge market crash. But are you ready for whats coming or are you sticking your head in the sand like most Americans? No one wants to think about it. Hell, its a pain in the ass even reading this post. You don't want to even think about the boat being rocked. You got your kids in school, house payments, car payments. But what happens when the shit hits the fan?
I would like you to read a post what could happen if the United States goes into full default. It would send everything off the tracks including everything about how you live your life: CLICK HERE.

Now that you read that, I know its the worse case scenario. But what if even a fraction of that happens? At the very LEAST I would have a stockpile of food and water to last for 3 months. Im not talking a basement full of bananas and fruit, but MRE's (meal replacement packs that you can order in bulk online with powdered vitamin C and meal replacement powders that are full of all the nutrients that bodybuilders use). Those meal replacement kits can be nuked, or just peeled back and eaten. You can find these supplies online. Water is also very important. Figure how much water you will need for 3 months. You can buy crates of bottled water at Sams, Walmart, Costco etc. BUT YOU CANT BUY THEM AT ANY OF THESE PLACES WHEN THERE IS A RUN ON SUPPLIES AND THE STORES ARE BEING LOOTED. You gotta be ready. Assume the worst. Maybe its just a small crash and there is not service interruptions. Maybe there is a big crash and the power and water goes out and your family is hungry and thirsty and there are gangs of people roving around breaking into houses looking for food and water. Which one would you rather be? Paranoid and ready for all eventualities or caught with your pants down?
Being paranoid is simply having total awareness. At the very least you are over prepared with a few skids of bottled water and MRE's in the basement. Big deal. But a WAY big deal if and when you need them. Also: how will you defend your home from hungry intruders? You need to think about that.
So: Yes. I am going to have water and MREs and a baseball bat. Ok. But what else can I do to get ready for this?
1. Dont have everything you have buried into 1 or two blue-chip stocks. Such as people who had their entire nest eggs in Enron and WorldCom in 2000. Thinking that they were good. Thinking that they were solid with a solid blue chip stock. They lost almost everything and then instead of retiring they were then door greeters at Walmart.
2. Leave your 401K alone. Yeah it will take a hit, but you will be hit with penalties taking it out. Instead you are going to do number 3 below to cover yourself.
3. Take 5 grand and purchase leap puts that expire two years out about 5-8 dollars below the money. Purhase QQQ, an NASDAQ 3x Put ETF (calls on that one because its the reverse- it makes money and goes up when the market goes down) and 3 other blue chip stocks. Just purchase them and forget them. When and if the big wack comes and the market loses 40-50% of its value, the QQQ is going to drop from say 110 to 51. And with your cheap little out of the money puts they will expand exponentially. Like going from .60 cents to 50 dollars. As long as money is still in use and the banks still work you are going to be sitting on a mountain of cash.

Stay tuned and stay aware and look at our national debt and how we keep having to raise the debt ceiling and what do we owe China...

Tradinginsider

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What the QQQ will do next week

Here is a forecast of the QQQ to aid in your trading for next week. Lets take a look.

Something interesting in the chart that I circled each time it happened: As the cubes channel along following the 50 day moving average they break the average then climb right back up. It is logical therefore to assume this will happen a 5th time. That would give the cubes a low of say high 107s to low 108s before it turns to climb again. But then I looked at the other indicators and found a failed crossover.

This suggests that the movement will be more sideways and choppy for a bit. Look at the same indicator (that I circled) from May 18th to the beginning of June and now look above it during the same time period the candles in the daily chart. They went sideways for a while as the DI red and green lines did not cross. Now looking at this for the year, there usually is a definite crossing of the lines, both back and forth. This time there appeared to be a failed crossover.
So which is it? The thing that I do here is take the average of the two so this is what I would say for the next week: There is no upward pressure in the cubes. There will be some sideways, some drops, and one big down day and then a bounceback to sideways. In other words dont go long in anything next week. Things are going to be cloudy with a bit of rain.
Of course if Greece has a miraculous breakthrough with its creditors next week, all the above goes out the window and the markets will surge up. But again as I said before, 80 percent of the time we are in a technical cycle and 20 percent of the time we are in a news cycle. Also, upon reexamination, I dont believe Greece really has anything to offer its creditors.

Stay tuned for some informative posts this weekend. And happy weekend. You made it through another week.

Tradinginsider

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In Reverse Bed with NKE!

I am watching NKE for another top, and at the same time I am weighing its news and technicals to determine the upward strength and possible continuance of the upward pull. Lets look at the charts:

Today there was a gap up. And look at the candle, with a top tail. Or an attempted push up and fail. The Greek announcement is going to be tommorrow and I think they hammered something out, so the markets are going to react. However like sitting in a good movie at the theater and having to use the bathroom, I dont want to miss anything. I am going to purchase a put using half (1/2) the money I usually use. My in:

Note that this time the last price is right between the bid and ask as this is seeing some volume.This is gambling guys, I give this one a 55% of working due to the big earnings beat. But my 6th sense is going off.

More later today

Tradinginsider

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Chinese Stock Market Bubble

The Chinese stock market is undergoing a bubble of historic porportions, even more that the US has in 2000. Take a look the the below post:

I’ve mentioned the Chinese stock market mania here briefly in recent weeks. I’ve now compiled a fair amount of data along with some interesting anecdotes that show just how crazy it’s gotten so I thought I’d spend this week’s market comment laying it all out for you.

The first thing I like to focus on is valuations. If the dot-com bubble is the gold standard, then China is a bona fide financial bubble. According to Bloomberg:

Valuations in China are now higher than those in the U.S. at the height of the dot-com bubble just about any way you slice them. The average Chinese technology stock has a price-to-earnings ratio 41 percent above that of U.S. peers in 2000, while the median valuation is twice as expensive and the market capitalization-weighted average is 12 percent higher, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Another way to look at it is to compare current valuations around the world:

I’ve made the case that US stocks are more overvalued than they appear due to the fact that the median stock is now more highly valued than ever. There’s now a very similar but far more dramatic situation going on in China. Again, from Bloomberg:

The problem with the Shanghai Composite is that 94 percent of Chinese stocks trade at higher valuations than the index, a consequence of its heavy weighting toward low-priced banks. Use average or median multiples instead and a different picture emerges: Chinese shares are almost twice as expensive as they were when the Shanghai Composite peaked in October 2007 and more than three times pricier than any of the world’s top 10 markets.

So if US stocks are expensive on a median basis, Chinese stocks are incredibly so. What’s pushed valuations so far is euphoria like we may have never seen here at home. More than any developed stock market in the world, China’s is driven mainly by individual investors rather than institutions. This means that it’s probably more influenced by what Keynes termed “animal spirits” than most. And boy are there signs of those “animal spirits” in China today.

The number of new trading accounts being opened is simply stunning. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a more dramaticly parabolic rise in anything.

And they’re not just buying stocks with cash. They’re using an incredible amount of debt, aka margin financing, to leverage their purchases right now.

This is amazing and Yang, its etf is bouncing all over the place and is way overvalued. So what do contrarians do in a bubble? A: We go the other way. What is happening here is greed on an unprecidented scale and that just screams that people are going the wrong way with this. So with Yang, I looked at the chart:

You can see that there is a LOT of volatility with this one. Which is why Im not too concerned about hitting the absolute top. Do I think there is a bit higher to go with this one? Yes. In a bubble there is always topside mania past the extent that you would think possible. As a matter of fact this could easily scoot up to the 70s. However you can see the daily volitility and it looks like today there is a top signal cross. Good time to buy a put, even though the puts are expensive because the MMs know about the roller coaster volititily. However, they are significantly flattened in price for today. I will be willing to double down on this if things go wrong, but I think this will work out.

Below is my in:

I will be watching this very carefully tommorrow because this has the stoic reserve of a mexican jumping bean. I got in with the julys because things happen quickly

Also note that our in is not 17.00. Thats what it was going for yesterday before the price jump. Today traders are stunned at the loss so they are all holding it, thus no volume. But we pick it up between the bid and the ask, here that would be 4.80. More later today

Tradinginsider

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TNXP- The situation

I am in a situation with TNXP that I don't like. I missed the high and prematurely bought the 10 puts. Then the stock pushed higher to 10.50. Lets look at the chart:

You can see that things look pretty good from a going down perspective. But my eyes see something else. I see that I missed the top. We should have a 50% profit right now. But its a couple of days later and I dont like that. I dont like it because of erosion, I dont like it because after a couple of days the crowd has already come to thier senses and the price has readjusted, like what has happened above and I should have already gotten out. Now that the crowd has come to its senses, the contrarian window is closing, the price is adjusted to where the crowd thinks it should be with the good news glow worn off. Things now are getting dangerous for the contrarian. Its like hanging around a bank after you rob it and the police are almost there. So can I pull this off? Right now the option price between the bid and the ask is at about 1.70. I can see that there is room to drop with the RSI in overbought position and the MACD on the way down. But the MACD is a trailing indicator, so I cant put too much behind that.  Volume is dropping off, so thats good. What it comes down to here is I need a bad day in the market where the market is down with a combination of no more good news to let this stock drop further. And the more force it drops in one day the higher our put option goes. So we will continue to watch this one. Stay tuned for more updates today.

Tradinginsider

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EXIT CLBI short @5.64

This morning we exit the CLBI short at 5.64. Yesterday we shorted it at 6.47. That leaves us with an overnight profit of 12%. Not too shabby. Most people would be happy with that gain in a year. Stay tuned today as I hunt the new lists and look at what we are holding.

Update in progress.

Tradinginsider

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The Stock Earnings system this site uses

Hello everyone. Here is the method that I use for the stock earnings system for the 1045 report.

I basically do two things over and over again:

1. I bounce trade stocks interdaily. At about 1045 in the morning central time (Chicago Time) I decide which way the market is going to go the next day by analyzing the Nasdaq QQQ. Once I decide which way I look at a corresponding up or down list.
If I feel the QQQ is going to rise tomorrow, I will select the most down % list for the current day.
If I feel the QQQ is going to drop tomorrow, I select the most gainers % list f or the current day.

Here is the rationale: Stock are like beach balls floating in the ocean. The Ocean is the Stockmarket itself. When the market pulls back from the shore, the beach ball (stock) takes a ride with it in the direction is flows. Likewise, when the ocean comes into shore, the beach ball rides with it on in. Much like the stockmarket can drag stocks up or down depending if its and up day or down day.

Now: I have gone over in previous posts how we as humans are all wired with greed and fear. These are ancient impluses hardwired into us via evolution in order to help us survive. For example, there are 9 cavemen standing around. Suddenly as a group they all start running away in the same direction. You will have a hard time resisting the urge to start running with them no questions asked. Because if you stand there and look around suddenly you could be eaten by a predator. Run with the herd is a primal response. As is greed, the urge to acquire resources for survival. If you see a group of people rapidly acquiring something that aids in survival, you will have the urge to join them and start acquiring: you don't want to miss out. Greed.

So I work two things with this one. Greed and Fear, and my technical charting of the QQQ. I go through the most up list or the most down list for the day and ID stocks that have irrationally been bought or sold due to fear or greed. Then this is further magnifyied by the direction of the market the following day. So for example. I look at the cubes in the morning and looking at its technicals and what reports are due out and any other upcoming news and decide which way the market is going to go. So lets say I decide that tomorrow the market is going to drop. Here is the concept. The market is going to drop and drag down stocks with it. So I am going to pick the most gainers% list of the day, or stocks that are the most up percentage wise by price for the day and find errors in judgement, or greed by the crowd as a whole. Stocks that went up too high and when people find thier wits about them again the next day, the stock will shrink to its correct valuation as cool heads once again prevail. This drop is FURTHER AIDED BY THE DROPPING STOCK MARKET as it drags the stock down with it IN ADDITION to the stock bouncing back to its correct valuation. Its like a double whammy. Some days I don't see a play. Most days it seems that I do. The trading crowd is like a bunch of lemmings running as a herd left and right and I just go the other way on it.

2. Here is the other thing that I do: Trade the earnings reports. If you got 18 minutes to learn how to do this, this below video is VERY informative. However I admidt the quality of the video is a bit amateurish. Personally, if I was told that the video wasn't too slick but with the information I could make a million dollars over the course of the next year or two with it, you better believe I'd watch it.

Don't watch the above video at work, you will need your full attention. Its 18 minutes long, Get a drink to wake up and see how I do it.

Thats really all I do in a nutshell. I do the above two things over and over again, and it will only end when the markets end or there is an atomic war. I have been doing this for 20 years and my level of expertise is pretty much up there. For example, I'm good at reading candlestick technical charts with popular indicators...that takes practice. There are nuances and specific things I look for that I have trained myself to see along with a gut feeling that backs the logic I use. Can you learn to trade like me? Sure. Piggy back off me or just watch me for a few months and learn my style. For every trade I let you know whats going on inside my head and why the stock and what Im looking for and why I feel the stock is going to do what its going to do.

Thats all for now, tomorrow watch for my bounce trades in the mid morning.

Tradinginsider

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