Winning

Winning

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Four ways to beat Craps

Hey everyone..this is a stock picking/educational blog but every now and then I like to mix it up. For the last 15 years or so I have been a gambling enthusiast and have extensively studied the games of Roulette and Craps. For quite a few years I have been an armchair theoretical gambler who has tested thousands of gambling systems. Ive sat in front of the computer testing systems for quite possibly
7000 hours plus. During times of stress its really helped my mind tackle the problem of how to win money at gambling. Ive played craps in Atlantic City, Vegas and all the regional riverboats and this is the 4 ways that I've found to play effectively at the craps tables. I would suggest that you try these on free online simulators first before you try them at live tables under real fire. One site I use to practice is http://wizardofodds.com . OK lets get started!

1) Hardways Walk up to a table that is over half full. Wait and see if there are any points being thrown. A good way to decide if the table is any good is if there are chips being bet on the table on the hardways, the point numbers, etc. Do the people at the table seem excited and chattering and having a good time? Or is the table somber and quiet like at a funeral? For this you will need to find a table 1/2 full and a table where there is people betting and not a blizzard of seven outs, with people looking around annoyed and muttering under their breath.  A simple indication that it is time to find another table is if people start cashing out and walking away and the table falls below 1/2 full. NO ONE walks away from a hot table.
So, you have found a decent table and you buy your rack of chips. For this I would recommend $10,000. Yes I said $10,000. Seeing that this is a pretty steep price tag to get in with, I would recommend one of the other systems below in order to work up the money you need to bankroll this one. This is to protect you against the standard deviation of swings.
A) Stand there and wait for a hardways to be thrown
B) After you see a hardways, put 5 dollars down on all 4 hardways. Keep them going until a 7 gets thrown and its a new shooter. As you are in it and waiting for the 7, replace any of the hardways that get taken down with your current bet of 5 dollars. Also pocket or put to the side any winnings from any hardways that hit. Always keep all four hardways working with your current bet which is at this time 5 dollars each. Each time an easyways gets thrown, replace it again with your 5 dollar bet. You are working until the shooter sevens out. Sometimes when you are doing this, the shooter doesnt seven out for a while. He makes his point, the line gets paid, and he keeps the dice. Keep going with your hardways up until the shooter finally sevens out, all the while replacing any hardways bets that get taken down by easyways until he or she finally sevens out.
C) When the shooter sevens out, all 4 bets on your hardways are swept away by the dealer and now you do nothing but stand there and wait until you see another hardways get thrown. This might be in a couple of rolls down the line by the next shooter or it could be several shooters later after 70 rolls. You stand there and wait until you see the hardways once again are thrown.
D) When you again see a hardways, once again you put 5 bucks each up on all 4 hardways. This is set number 2. You leave them up working, replacing any 5 bucks that gets taken down by easyway throws, and taking any payoffs on hardways until the current shooter sevens out. (7s dont count on the come out. Again, the shooter might make a couple of points. Keep going until he sevens out and loses the dice).
E) You then wait again until the next appearance of a hardway. Doenst matter if its the next shooter or if its a couple of shooter later or if the next shooter has a hot as hell roll, you stand there and wait until the next hardways hits.
F) After the next hardways hits, you put 5 bucks on all 4 hardways. This is set number 3. Again, you wait until the current shooter 7s out, all the while replacing any 5 dollar bet hardways that go down while you wait for that 7 out.
G) You repeat the above over and over, until you get to set number 10. This means that you have 10 different groups of times you have jumped in when you saw a hardways get thrown and you then bet with 5 bucks on each of the hardways replacing any that get taken down due to easyways thrown until you got a seven out.
H) After set number 10 above, you are now going to do a second set of 10 this time using bets of 10 dollars each on all the the hardways. After that set of 10, you will increase to 15 each on all the hardways. After 10 more sets, up to 20, 25, etc. This is one of the longest systems to use, and if you dont have a few hours to spend at the tables, I would recommend that you use one of the other systems below.

What we are going with the above in sets is using Mathematician Ion Saliu's system of statistical deviation to squeeze out a profit. I have found in my analysis that hardways statistically come out in clumps in the long run due to some of it having to do with chaos theory. In a mathematically even world, the hardways would show once every 10-15 times, but you will see that is far from reality. Quite often you will have a dry spell of hardways for 70-100 rolls and then suddenly you will have a grouping of hardways and sometimes even an avalanche. My system takes advantage of this by forcing you to sit out dry spells so your money is not getting burned and has you in during hot streaks. When the table starts to seven out too much people will start to wander away from the table and that triggers your "The table just fell below the half full of people" trigger so that means you cash in your chips and look for another table. You don't want to be leaning into a punch. Find another table that is more than half full with chips on the felt and numbers being thrown.

2) Seven system The seven is the most common number that can be thrown at the craps table and is the number that works for the casino. Why not have it work for you as well? For this you will be betting on 'Any 7' and 'Any Craps' usually found above and under the hardways at the center of the table. For this system we will seek out cold rolls and avoid hot rolls.
1) Walk up to the table, cash in for chips. I recommend 2,000 dollars. You want a 10 dollar minimum table for this. A 15 or higher min will climb up too high for your bank.
2) As soon as a new shooter gets the dice, jump in. Put 10 on the 'any 7' and 10 on 'any craps'.
3) The shooter rolls. If no seven or no craps gets thrown, your money is gone That's roll #1.
4) Now increase your bets by 1 dollar, so now put up 11 bucks on each: The 'any 7' and 'any craps'
5)You will stick in there for 6 rolls, all the while increasing your bet by 1 dollar each roll of the dice. If you hit an any craps, just take the payoff and continue. One dollar more on the next bets of the 'any 7' and 'any craps'
6) If at any time during the six rolls the shooter sevens out, take your payoff and its on to the next shooter, the count restarting at "1". You will then bet 6 rolls with that shooter, all the while increasing your two bets by 1 dollar each roll.
7) If the shooter rolls six different rolls and does not hit a seven, you stop, That means he is having a hot roll and you stop betting until he finally sevens out whether that is 4 rolls later or 40 minutes later. The shooter by the way may make his point inside of your 6 rolls betting on that shooter. Fine. As soon as you get to the 6th roll with no 7, stop betting on him and wait for the next shooter (he sevens out). If during the 6 rolls he makes a point number (the line wins) and now hes coming out and makes a 7 on the come out, take the money but stay on that shooter for the 6 rolls. Only stop before the 6 rolls are over if his 7 is a 7 out and its on to the next shooter.
8) The bet keeps advancing 1 dollar each time. So for shooter number one, your six bets on each the 'any 7' and the 'any craps' will be $10-$10, $11-$11, $12-$12, $13-$13, $14-$14, $15-$15, $16-$16. (That is if there was no seven out thrown.) When the next shooter gets the dice, simply resume on the last bet amount you were using and continue upward, adding a dollar each time to the bets.
So for example, you start on shooter A. You bet $10 on the 7, $10 on any craps, He rolls a 5. Nothing, bets get taken away. On roll#2, andyou bet $11 on the 'any 7 and $11 on 'any craps'. He rolls craps, a 3. You get paid, but you are still betting on his rolls. Roll#3, you are now betting $12 and $12, He sevens out. You didnt make it all 6 rolls with him because he 7'ed out and the dice get passed to the next shooter and you start over with 6 rolls with them, with the first roll you are betting on being the last amount you bet, so roll #1 would be $13 and $13, etc.
9) To protect yourself against the swings that will get bigger and bigger as you do this, if at any time after a shooter sevens out your chips on the rack are +$30, start over your bets on the 'any 7' and 'any craps' at $10. Sometimes things may not be going good, and your bets might get up over 30-40 dollars each.
10) You can see how this stops you from betting into any hot streaks. Statistically you should see a 7 out once every 5-6 rolls.
11) The opposite of the above system, you want to find a table with just a few guys at it that is having a cold streak. People are pissed off, walking away, looking around muttering. Cold tables are a dime a dozen and are very easy to find. This system will filter out hot streaks and prevent you from betting into them. If the table remains consistantly hot, find another cold table. If find that the best time to find a cold table is in the mid to late afternoon. For some reason tables dont heat up until after 5pm. I have no idea why. If you walk around Vegas or Atlantic City on a Thurs-Fri-Sat night you can find lots of tables that are hot jammed full of people screaming winning money. Go to those same tables at 2-3 pm and you will see people losing their shirts, dumping thier factory paychecks. You want a table under half full and cold with the stick shouting "Seven Out!" with people groaning for this system.

3) The Field System In this system we are going to be using the field bet as our primary bet and numbers and odds as our run off secondary.
A) We walk up to a table that is half full or more with numbers being thrown and chips on the felt. No depressed tables less than half full of people. If at a table that suddenly turns and suddenly goes cold and people start cashing in and leaving, you leave too and find another table.
B) Place a 10 dollar bet ( you are at a 10 min table. Find one.) on the field. If it hits, bet the same again on the field. If it loses, increase your bet by one dollar. If it loses, you just lost two bets in a row and you sit there watching for another field number to be thrown. Could be right away, or could be a while of nothing but point numbers When another field number is thrown, you get in again and increase your bet by one dollar from your previous bet. Every time you lose a field bet, its the last bet plus one dollar. When you lose two in a row, you sit out until another field bet number is thrown then get back in plus one dollar on your last bet. Keep doing this. You never lose more than two bets in a row because you are then sitting out after the second loss. This is to prevent you from getting hammered during the times during streaks of no field numbers being thrown, just point numbers.
C) Now while you are doing the above, that is, adding plus one dollar after each loss and sitting out after two losses, jumping back in after a field shows again, you will be doing something else: Constantly monitoring how many chips you have on your rack like a obsessive compulsive Accountant. The reason for this is because every time you go into the plus collumn, that is everytime there are more chips on your rack than you came with you will be placing an additional bet.
For example..you showed up with 1000 dollars to the table and you started playing the above. As you are playing, your chip balance wavers around, at one time you have 958 dollars, then you drift down to 931 dollars, then you start hitting some field numbers, then a 12 and then a 2 and suddenly you look down and you have 1002 dollars on your rack. Even with +1 over 1000, this triggers item D) below.
D) You have just gone over the amount you walked in with, as in you look down and you have $1001 or 1002 or 1028, etc on your rack. Heres what you do now.
You are currently betting whatever number you got up to on the field bet as you have been adding +1 dollar to your last bet after a loss. You are currently at 19, or 25, or 17 or 32, or whatever number you are at.
You will then simply make a come bet of that current number (or a line bet if a number hasnt been established yet at the table) along with your next field bet. Now you have your next field bet out there on the field, and the same denomination of money that your field bet is currently at on either the come or on the line, depending if there is a number currently in play by the current shooter or if the shooter hasnt come out yet. As soon as you put out that come or line bet along with that field bet, look down at your rack and count. Chances are you are now back below your 1000, seeing that you just put both those bets out there. Now wait for the next roll. If the come bet goes to a number or the comeout roll goes to a number, fine, your second bet is sitting out there waiting on a decision. If your field bet just lost, put up another field bet with +1 added to it. If the field bet won, again look at the chips on your rack. If you are above $1000 even by a chip, then add odds to your come or line bet in the same amount as the line or come bet altered slightly of course for the number you are putting odds on (4,5,6,8,9,10).
You are still playing the field while you do this, sitting out after two losses, jumping in after a field number, while adding +1 to the pile. While you have a point number out there with money on it, you are watching your chips count on the rack. Every time you get over the amount you came in with, even by a dollar, you then add more money on your odds of the number you have working in the amount that is equal to the amount of money you are currently using on your field bet. Every time your money goes under your starting amount even by a dollar while you are doing the field bets and currently have a number with odds working you will stop adding odds to the number. Every time your total on your rack goes above your starting amount (in this case 1001) you will add more money to the odds pile in the amount of your current bet on the field.
In this way you are building a tremendous bomb via your odds bet on the number as it grows and grows, and if it goes off, (number hits) you can make a lot of money. The above can be a bit confusing, so thats why we are going to do a sample below and go step by step:

Walk up to table, cash 1000.
We put 10 dollars up on the field. First roll is a 6. Our field loses. We put up 11 dollars on the field. It loses. We do nothing and wait for a field number. We check our rack, we have 979 dollars on it. The next number is a 8, we do nothing. The next is a 9. Thats a field number. We place a bet on the field for 12 dollars. It hits, we take the money. Now we have 981 on the rack. We remain with 12 dollars because we just won, we put that back up on the field. Shooter rolls a 3. We win. Now thats 993 on the rack. We bet $12 on the field again. It hits. Now we put those winnings on the rack: we have 1004 dollars. Now the shooter already came out and he is shooting for the 6, the point is currently 6, so we don't do the line bet because its not a come out, we use the come bet. Our current amount we are using is 12 on the field so we once again bet 12 dollars on the field and we use the same amount that we are currently betting on the field and we put $12 in the come. The next roll is 5. We lose our field bet and our come bet goes up on the 5. We now put $13 in the field. We lose. Now we dont bet the field because we just lost two in a row, and we still have our money on 5 as the shooter is trying to still make his point, which is currently 6. The next roll is a 8. No action on our part, we are still waiting for a field number and our come bet on five just sits there. The next roll is 12. We jump back in with a field bet of $14. The next roll is 3. We take our winnings but are still below the 1000 dollar mark on our rack of chips. The next roll is 12. After we take our winnings and place them on the rack, we notice that we are now above 1000 dollars again. So we are currently at 14 dollars betting on the field, so we take 14 dollars (adjust it to 15 dollars) and place it as odds on our come bet which is sitting on the five, and we also bet $14 on the field. Our field hits again, and we check: if we have over 1000 on the rail after we take our field payoff, we once again put another $14 dollars in odds on top of the odds already on the 5. If the five finally hits after we have been feeding it odds over and over again because our fields have been hitting (and were over 1000 on the rack which was the signal to place the current field bet amount as odds on our come), we could win a lot of money.
This continues until we make a set amount of money, either +50 or +100 on our rack over what we came in with, When we are either at $1050 or $1100 on our rack, THAT will be the new set point.
That means instead of 1000 that we were using all along, now it will be 1050 or 1100 as the new base number that will tell us if we are putting odds behind numbers in addition to our field betting.
This is a pretty solid system, and its good that the field is the thing that is generating the money that allows us to bet on numbers and put odds behind them. 1000 dollars to start should be safe. Plus if you are at a decent table things should move along pretty quickly.

4) The Don't System This system is a bit easier and it also has the 7 working for you. For this system you will be looking for tables that are under half full and look cold. You want few chips on the felt and you want to see people looking dazed and somber.
A) Walk up and cash in 1000 for chips
B) Wait until the current shooter is done, as in he sevens out and the dice goes to the next shooter
C) Place a 10 dollar bet on the pass line and at the same time place a 10 dollar bet on the don't pass line
D)Wait for a number to be established. Before that happens, the shooter might roll a 7 or 11, in which case your dont loses and your do wins. Simply bet 10 again on the dont pass and 10 on the pass. Your don't line bet might win if the shooter rolls craps while hes coming out, again: rebet 10 on the line and 10 on the dont pass. We are waiting here for the shooter to roll a point number so the puck comes out and goes to a point number.
E) Once the shooter does roll a point number, now take double odds on the dont and place a 10 dollar bet on the don't come. The double dont odds on your dont pass line bet are protecting your 10 dollar bet on the dont come. As in if a 7 rolls the next roll, you are protected.
F) The shooter rolls again, and rolls a point number. Your dont come goes over to it, and now you remove your double dont pass line odds. You are allowed to pick them up.
G) What you have just managed to do is almost totally eliminated the house edge, and now you have a dont pass number hanging out there for almost free with the most commonly rolled number, the 7 as your friend. The odds are in your favor to win. You now place double odds behind your dont bet and wait until either the shooter picks your number off, or what will most likely happen at this point, a seven out.

Now what you do is kind of like the hardways system, you are going to be using sets of 10. For the first 10 times your base bet is going to be 10 bucks: 10 on the pass line, 10 on the don't pass line, double odds on the don't pass while you put down 10 bucks on the don't, then take down your don't odds after the new don't come is established, and place double odds behind that. After 10 different shooters, you increase your base bet to 15 dollars. Then after 10 of those, you increase to 15 dollars, etc.
Every time you achieve +50 overall dollars on your rack, you can start all over again at your 10 dollar base bet at bet 1 of 10.

Well there you are. I myself would recommend that you start in the early afternoon and go scouting for ice cold tables and use the dont system. Get your bankroll up +$500 to +$1000 dollars and then you can switch over to the Field Bet System at a decent table with decent rolls. From that point after you are up about +$2000, you can do the 7 system.
If at any time you have people or most likely stick people messing with you because you are betting the pass line and the don't pass line at the same time, leave. You don't need the additional pressure, there are other tables. Stick people and personnel at the tables all have different personalities as well as pit bosses and casinos for that matter. Some casinos will tell you that you cant bett the pass and the don't pass at the same time because they don't have enough of an edge against you. Fine, find another casino. I was at Trump casino once about 10 years ago in Indiana and a few of us were standing there at the craps table not betting because the table was really cold. We were all waiting for the dice to pass around the table to a few hot shooters that had decent rolls earlier in the game. The pit boss then said "You can't stand there and not bet. If you have chips and you are at the rail, you have to bet on the line every roll."  Which by the way is bullshit. A few of us scoffed and colored in our chips. If you get something like that, leave. By the way that casino is now defunct. Serves them right.
Try these out for a spin on an online free practice site. Again, I use wizardofodds.com. Good luck.

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