3M puts: My view

140.00

MMM141122P00140000

2.98

0.23

2.93

3.15

18

1,380

3M Nov option puts, Im issuing the order. I looked at the price action today and there was a bit of slippage and the gap up from yesterday was ignored. So lets look at my line of reasoning. First lets look at the analysts estimates: 

You can see things are lackluster. The have been no big earnings pops over the last few quarters, and its growth est compared to the industry and sector are both weak. 3M is a lumbering giant and isnt going to light the world on fire this quarter. Lets look at the recent price climb.

There was a gap up yesterday which was showing big strength, and that caused me to wait on the put order. Today the price action suggests that someone knows something. If earnings are tommorrow and the price suddenly stopped climbing, that means advance info is leaking out on the trading floor. That is leaving a footprint in our chart. So we purchase the Nov put now and we hold it through the earnings call. We may even have to hold it the day after tommorrow letting the crowd absorb the information. It is my opinion that the crowd was over enthusiastic about the news over the past week but when confronted by the numbers tommorrow, there is gonna be a blow off. Buy into the rumor and sell the news just might be the thing here. Of course 3M might say something amazing during the numbers call and this stock could do to the moon. But its not how the stacked cards look like. And that is what we do, find a deck stacked a certain way and then pull the trigger.

More later,

Mark