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Thursday, October 23, 2014

What went wrong with MMM

So I get up this morning and check my tablet for MMM. Holy &*$%, I see the stock going the entirely wrong way. My mind is whirring as I am voiding the few mountain dews I had the night before. What the hell happened? Is the entire universe tilting on its side? Do the rules of physics no longer apply? I was fuming.
As it is when Im fuming about something, I decide to put it on the back burner for an hour and do other things. This allows me to cool down, and let my subconscious continue to process the whole thing. I then turned my attention back to 3M later in the day, and much like an accident investigator on site at an airline crash, I started to piece together what happened. This is very important in the learning process. Lets go over what happened:

My first thought was that my record was pretty much spotless except for the two times I held a stock through earnings. Maybe I shouldn't do that because of the uncertainty gap: No matter how much analysis you do and crunch the numbers, a company could still pull a rabbit out of the hat to thunderous applause. But that can't happen if I eliminate surprises, right? As my 2 week stock climb system based on the information that everyone else has. The contrarian thing I do is sell after the run up 2 days before earnings. Then who cares if there is a surprise or not. Same thing with bouncing the news either to the upside or downside: The news event already happened and I have already made a decision if the stock action is crowd overreaction or not, then I act on that. The only thing I can't control is if I hold a stock through the day it actually reports its numbers.

Then I took a harder look at what actually happened with this time out. I did see in hindsight that there was several things that I would not do again:

1. Through technical analysis I knew that the market was in an upswing. When the market is in an upswing I never do the 3 day drop system. I'm supposed to do my two week climb system. The three day drop system in part relies on the stock market is in a downswing which will further aid in a stocks downward momentum making money on my put. The market this time was in a upswing which made the positive surprise worse, pulling the stock upwards even harder.

2. When I do the 3 day drop system, I usually pick a stock that has numbers hard in the red in its earnings est and the last 2 out of 4 quarter surprises. This time I took a stock that was a bit to the positive, even though the industry benchmark was high. I need more of a discrepancy between the stock estimates and the benchmark...and I need them in the red.
3. One thing that led to such a hard upside explosion with numbers that weren't THAT great was all the positive news items that was coming out in the previous week. That led to a combustive mixture with earnings. From now on, when Im picking a stock to do the 3 day drop with and I see numbers in the red (good) I will then also look at the headlines during the last weeks run-up. I don't want to see a bunch of great news items that will positively shine on the stock, or that will add to its bottom line in the public's mind.
4. The RSI and MACD were in strong buy territory. These technical indicators showed that the stock was in under-bought territory and had a lot of room to jump upward.

For Friday Im going to take the day off and get it together. I am also holding the MMM put to see if anything further happens. At 10:30 am yesterday the put was down 96% but at close it was down 67%. Lets see if the public blows off this stock a bit. Ill check in tomorrow at 10-11 am Chicago time and let you know whats happening, then again at about 2pm. Perhaps we can still pull this out as we are holding a November and not an October.

The above is an example where you enhance your calm after something goes the wrong way on you in the market. Sure, there is a kneejerk urge to flip out and do something stupid like double down without analysing further or buying something else trying to recoop your money without looking into it first in detail. So while this pic went wrong, I at least was able to turn it into a learning example so that you will have one more quiver in your bag when trying to trade the markets.
Oh, and I did something to make the text easier to read...much better, right?

Mark

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