ALNY puts...my view

Two reasons why I am going puts on this stock. Actually three.

1.) It just announced a very lackluster Phase 2 6mos result. Nothing to write home about.

6:01 am Alnylam Pharma reports six-month clinical data from patisiran phase 2 OLE study in patients with familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy; results show a mean 0.95 point decrease in modified neuropathy impairment score. (ALNY) :

• Results showed a mean 0.95 point decrease in modified Neuropathy Impairment Score (mNIS+7) at six months in 19 patients with mNIS+7 data available for the current analysis. This decrease in neuropathy progression compares favorably with the 7 to 10 point increase in mNIS+7 at six months that can be estimated from historical data sets in untreated FAP patients with similar baseline characteristics.
• In addition, patisiran treatment achieved a sustained mean serum TTR knockdown at the 80% target level for over nine months, with an up to 89.6% knockdown achieved between doses. Patisiran was found to be generally well tolerated in this study out to one year of therapy, with no drug-related serious adverse events to date, and all 27 patients enrolled in the study continue to receive drug treatment.
• The initial results from the ongoing open-label study showed that after six months of treatment with patisiran, neuropathy impairment scores were essentially unchanged from baseline values. As noted above, there was a mean decrease in mNIS+7 of 0.95 points (N=19), which compares favorably to the rapid increase in mNIS+7 of 7 to 10 points estimated at six months from historical data sets in untreated FAP patients with similar baseline characteristics. Similar results were observed for the change in Neuropathy Impairment Score (:NIS), where there was a mean increase of 0.22 points at six months (N=20). 
• The stabilization in mNIS+7 was similar in patients with or without concurrent use of TTR tetramer stabilizers. In addition, no significant evidence for disease worsening was observed in measurements of QOL, 10MWT, mBMI, R-ODS, and nerve fiber density, amongst other clinical assessments performed. In the cardiac subgroup, there were no significant changes in cardiac biomarkers (N=5) or in echocardiographic parameters  after six months of dosing. Finally, repeat dosing of patisiran achieved sustained TTR knockdown at the 80% target level for over nine months, and an up to 89.6% level of TTR knockdown was achieved in post-dose measurements. A similar degree of TTR knockdown was observed in patients with or without concurrent use of TTR tetramer stabilizers. 

Now, thats not the reason that the stock was up so much today. Phase 2, so what. There is a couple more years of testing for the above before and if it hits the market. 

No, the reason why this stock was up so much today was a bit of the above but more of the below which leads to my number 2..
2) Ebola Panic  Its a hot button right now and everyone in the market is flooding to untested potential ebola vaccines. Vaccines that wont be on the market for years like below: 

When it comes to the search for Ebola treatments, names like BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.(NASDAQ: BCRX), Chimerix Inc (NASDAQ: CMRX), Sarepta Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:SRPT) and Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Corporation (NASDAQ: TKMR) have cropped up frequently.

Could these or other biotech companies also be on the forefront when it comes to another troubling biological threat: Enterovirus D68?

Enterovirus D68, or EV68, has been around for decades, but until this year symptoms were nearly indistinguishable from the common summer cold. In the past few months, hundreds of cases have been reported, many of them affecting children with asthma or other respiratory issues.

At least four children are reported to have died, and in a handful of other cases children now have developed what have been described as polio-like symptoms.

Little has been reported about efforts to find an EV68 vaccine or treatment so far, but should the problem continue to spread, who could pursue it? Besides those companies mentioned above, other likely candidates include AbbVie Inc (NYSE: ABBV), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.(NASDAQ: ALNY) and Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD), each with a foot already in the antiviral, respiratory and/or pediatrics spaces.

Even the major drug companies like Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE: BMY) or Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) could get in the race, should it appear lucrative, either directly or through a partnership with or acquisition of one of these others.

See also: What Are The Best-Selling Drugs Of 2014?

AbbVie

Among its many products are treatments for HIV-1 infection and a product that protects at-risk infants from severe respiratory disease or respiratory syncytial virus. Its market capitalization is about $87.5 billion and its dividend yield is near 3.1 percent. The operating margin is greater than the industry average and the return on equity is almost 93 percent.

Note that all but two of the 10 analysts surveyed by Thomson/First Call recommend buying shares, with three of them rating the stock at Strong Buy. The share price dropped more than 6 percent in the past week but is still up more than 18 percent in the past six months. The stock has outperformed Merck and Pfizer in that time.

Alnylam

Enteroviruses are a genus of positive-sense single-stranded RNA viruses, and Alnylam develops therapeutics based on ribonucleic acid interface (RNAi). Its market cap currently is about $5.5 billion. But note that both its operating margin and return on equity are in the red.

However, five of the six analysts surveyed recommend buying shares, and their mean price target suggests almost 28 percent upside potential. The share price is more than 32 percent higher than six months ago. Over that time, the stock has outperformed much larger competitors Merck and Pfizer.

In short, they are saying maybe Alnylam is in a position to develop something. Which means right now its got nothing, and will continue to have nothing for a while. This is hopped up hype admist a sector scare. The Ebola news that a nurse now has it is freaking everyone out so there is a sector scare where everyone is jumping on anything Ebola. I dont think that its going to get out of control so I am going out and getting some December puts.

85.00

ALNY141220P00085000

9.80

6.30

8.20

11.00

4

10

3) The technicals of this stock:

I do notice that this is a gap up in the chart and that does pose to be a significant problem, however the strength that that implies is based on crowd panic. How much panic is the question.:

You can see the gap up with the current price of the day, however the RSI, the top indicator says that it is near max and the indicator below, the MACD was interrupted in its downward drift.
All the above reasons is why I went out to December for the 85 strike price puts.
I may or may not be ready to double down on this pick if it goes the wrong way. That would depend on any further news that came out, as well as any future price action based on technical analysis. I am not going to blow smoke up your ass, I would give this pick a 60% shot, not one of the more low risk picks, so be aware. You cannot trade with just one pile of money for each pick. Remember...in order to have a working thing going, you must have 10-20 different piles of money with only 1 pile of money per pick.

More later,

Mark