Here's the way I see things. The stock FOLD is suddenly showing some weakness, so we are going to steer away from that one. I have three more picks, and they are all conditional based on the markets opening tomorrow. Actually the third one is conditional on a slight pullback before we jump in. All right, lets get started.
AAOI: This is a company that manufactures everything for cable. Cable is a big industry that is expanding rapidly with acquisitions and new services. Lets look at the analysts expectations for this upcoming earnings on Novemeber 10th:
As you can see above, the last 2 out of 4 quarters had good earnings pops. Even though the first quarter says N/A, take a look at the numbers. It went up 7 times what was expected.
The big news is the sales forecasts keep going up every quarter in 2015, and take a look at the Growth Estimates....for the current quarter, 228% compared to the Industry 39% and limp s+p. Look at next quarter. Cable is going to be pretty big. I expect this stock to continue the 2 week climb leading up to the earnings date. Lets now turn our attention to the price action:
A few things here: First of all the stock candle chart is showing "cup with a handle" pattern which is a large technical bullish signal. What about this pattern makes it bullish? First look at the stock dropping down and finding that first bottom. Then the stock bounces up hard, and finds a platau shelf and starts to slowly climb from there, new strength found at the newer higher level. Historically, charts with this pattern break out and climb upwards. Also the MACD indicator and the RSI have a ways to go before they top out at the repective tops of thier indicators.
When I am picking stocks, I put all of these together in one big Geshalt cooking pot in my head and weigh things out. I add in the analysts estimates because these will have the crowd react to this stock by most likely having people jump on board for a earnings report that they think is going to be glowing. I ride this up and then bail about a day and a half before the earnings report. Most likely what will happen is that the crowd will already price in the good news by the expectation of good news and then when the actual news comes, people will sell it off and move on elsewhere. I know this and play it in a contrarian style. I sell at the top and move on before everyone else sells it.
Now on to the next pick:
2.CSIQ: Canadian Solar Inc. sells its products under the CanadianSolar and CSI brand names. The company offers its standard solar modules through a direct sales force and sales agents primarily to distributors, system integrators, project developers, and installers/EPC companies.
So...this company is all over the place with its multi marketing distribution system. Lets take a look at what the analysts are thinking about what is going to happen Nov 10th for earnings:
The company has had decent pops 2 and a half times out of 4 and look at its growth est. Nice and hefty. Well other people can see this too, and this will lead to people piling on this stock all the way to earnings, bar any big drops in the market. I have looked at the market for about 1 week out and everything looks pretty good.
On to the chart for this stock:
Hey, here is a cup with a handle pattern again showing a bullish pattern. Also the RSI indicator and the MACD are in the right place. Im pretty sure that these are great indicators for a nice little climb right up to earnings.
I am going to update this post in the morning for the final in prices. I need to watch the price action in the morning and see whats happening. I dont want to miss the boat, but if the market is crashing, I need to wait. So you have the above info, if the market is sailing good in the morning and these two did not suddenly jump up, it would be a great time to get in.
So watch the market in the morning. Purchase Novembers at the money, if there has been no big pop or crash. Again, I will be on in the morning, around 9am Chicago Central time to monitor this.
Any hey, happy trading. Don't forget: Do not put 100% of your money into every trade. I am not all knowing (but I am very good) and some picks are turkeys. Most of my pics are good. This is why you need to separate your money into 15-20 piles. This protects you from downswings and helps you continue on your path to monetary acquisition in the style of good old Warren Buffet.
Cheers,
Mark
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
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» Picks for 10/29 Got two right here......
Picks for 10/29 Got two right here......
7:24 PM
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