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Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Purchase VLKAY and Hold it

Today I took a good look at Volkswagon. And I see that the scandal shock is wearing off and the market sees someone that lost their head over it (CEO stepped down) so now VW is going to recall, recover, readjust their PR, and continue to sell great cars. Lets look at the chart, first the weekly for a bigger picture:

You can see that the channel got broken due to the big market drop 3-4 weeks ago, and otherwise was beginning to channel back up until the news broke. Now that the shock has been absorbed, note the nicely shaped bottom candle with the big long bottom tail. Time to get in. Not only due to the technicals but due to common sense. Before I get into the common sense answer, lets look at the daily chart:

The daily chart showed the immediate problem and the aftermath. You can see before the adverse news hit the stock was beginning to channel upward again after the stock market mini crash. Then the news hit, and you can see the panic drop candle as no one knew the full extent of the problem or the damage and then consolidation at the bottom as it was all revealed (supposedly) and someone was made to pay for this (CEO fired/stepped down). So what do we have left? An undervalued car company that makes great cars that are built like mini tanks with overkill superior German Engineering. Even the scandal problem shows the tenacity of the company: they like to win. It wasnt a safety issue they skimped on. They wanted to deliver winning performance without having to detune thier engines. If you are not a tree hugger, you can almost see why they did it. Ever sit in one of these? Check them out at the lot. Sit in the seat and check out the egronomics. Feel the stiff seat and note what it sounds like when you close the door. Feel the ride and the power and how the car sticks to the road like a BMW.
Is this company going anywhere or is the stock going to 16 dollars a share? Hell no. Now that a head rolled for this, VW will continue to sell good cars at a decent price and maintain or grow thier current market penetration. This is not optionable so I would just pull a Buffet and put some money into this stock at this point and then forget about it.
Im going to give you one more reason to take a long view: Look at this chart:

As you can see as the market gains after 1999, this stock wants to climb. From 10 bucks to 79 dollars. It tried to do it in 2000, got wacked by the market. Did it again in 2006-2008 then got wacked by the market. Now its doing it again. Then in the last 3 days it got wacked by scandal. This is the PERFECT time to put some mone in, like its 2005 again before the climb. It would be like getting in microsoft in 1991. Current in: \


More later today,

Tradinginsider

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