Winning

Winning

Monday, September 15, 2014

QQQ (Nasdaq) Direction next few days and next few weeks

The Nasdaq is undergoing a bit of a pullback. I expect the next few days to be choppy with more to the downside. Looks like down one more day, a bit of an up day, then some consolidating chop. I dont have the exact specifics, but barring any sudden good news in the market, plan your trading to be a bit downward choppy at least until Friday.

As for the longer term, the weekly QQQ is showing that we are going to be down overall for 1 to 2 weeks before the climb resumes.


So how would one use this information? Maybe you are involved in some move in the market and you need to know which way it is likely to move in the next week or two. Perhaps you like purchasing options on the QQQ. Perhaps you like options or puts.
Most importantly of all, I use this information to determine what I will do using my two main systems of either letting a stock climb over the next two weeks to earnings, or purchasing puts on a stock that will report in 2-3 days out. For example, if I expect the market to be climbing in the next week or two, I will look at the earnings schedule for 2.5 weeks out and look for stocks that are expected to crush earnings. I then will purchase a call before most people get into the 2 week pre earnings announcement climb and then sell at the peak, about 1-2 days before the stock reports earnings. If I determine like I did with the above two charts that overall barring any sudden news that the stock market will likely drift downwards, I will look at the stock earnings calendar three days in the future and look for stocks that are expected to have really poor earnings. I then will cross index this with stocks that are erroneously climbing up to their earnings in an incorrect momentum play (this happens all the time for some reason: again the public is often wrong). I then purchase puts and sell them after the stock reports earnings after the stock drops. This of course, barring any freaky earnings report that the stock suddenly comes out with that I find happens less than 8% of the time. But does happen every now and then. However in the long run, I always make money because with the way I trade, I am the casino. I may lose every now and then, but I will always have a skid of money at the end of the year, by breaking up my trades into 20 different piles.

So there you have it, and stay tuned for more informative posts,

Mark

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