State of the Union

Hello everyone and thank you for visiting my site. So far this past week, I am running 100%, although I will not be staying at 100% because I am not a psychic. However, what I am doing is stacking the deck in my favor by looking at several factors: The technical analysis, the fundamental analysis and the expectations for the stock based on analysts. The latter is one of the most powerful tools that I use because I use it to turn against the crowd.
For example, when I think that the Nasdaq will continue to climb over the next week or two, I look at the earnings calander about 2 and a half weeks out. I then isolate stocks that are expected to earn way above its industry benchmarks and the S+P, and who have had big earnings suprise pops over analysits recommendations three out of the last four quarters. Now right there you have a ticking time bomb. Because the public can see this same information, with a stock like this, 8.5 out of 10 times, this stock will do a two week climb in price leading up to earnings, then if earnings arent spectacular, will sell off. So the contrarian thing to do, (guys like me who trade against the crowd) is to get in right before the two week climb, then ride the stock up as the public begins to pile on more and more, with the majority of the crowd incorrectly piling on the last 3-4 days before earnings, as they see the stock has been climbing, showing up on thier computer screens. I then sell the stock 2 days before earnings before advance insider earnings start to leak out ahead of time and cause price erosion, and take my profit, while the majority of the crowd gets in 2-3 days before earnings and loses thier money when the stock reports and it falls in price. I've said it again and again, people buy on the rumor and sell on the news (providing the news isnt fantastic)
Or, when I think the Nasdaq is going to drop over the next several days, I look at the Earnings Calendar 3-4 days out and look for stocks that have crap deep in the red numbers vs the industry, sector, and s+P with no or very little earnings surprises out of the last 4 quarters. Then I look at its candlestick charts and if I find a stock with these bad numbers climbing over the last several days to a week leading up to its earnings report, then 8 out of 10 times this is a momentum play and its dead wrong. I then sell it short or purchase option puts on it right about at the money or just out side of it, and when it reports, the stock shoots down in price because the earnings. Yes, there is those two times out of 10 that there was an inside play happening where a select group knew about something good coming up and the stock started to rise so then the public started to pile on it as well, but that's only 20% of the time, and thats why in my previous post about burn money, I outlined that you should split up your trading funds into 10-20 piles, and if you find someone that is picking stocks with about a 80% win ratio (such as me) you will make money in the long run even though you lose every now and then. No one is perfect. Shit happens. Its just that the deck is stacked in my favor, much like the deck is stacked in the casino's favor.

Well guys, more picks tommorrow evening, thanks for reading, Until then.

Mark