Problem with AA and the QQQ

Good morning. We are currently long in AA. What I do is look at the QQQ short and long term to determine which way I think things are going to go. Its not so much that I am investing directly with the QQQ as buying options with it, I am using it as a guide for my system that I use:
If I think that the QQQ (Nasdaq) is going to rise over the next 2 weeks, I do the stock climb system that I described earlier. If I think the QQQ is going to drop over the next several days, I do the stock drop system I also went over earlier. You can read about both of those systems that I employ here.
This worked with MTN. However, I got caught in a sudden reversal that was more news oriented.

If you recall, I said that the market tends to follow the technicals of the QQQ unless there is news that overrides the technicals, and this is what happened in the last two days with the jobs report and the concern over the health of the dollar. This actually caused the markets to slog and now the technicals themselves are different.
Shit happens. Not all the time, but it does happen. Now I am on the wrong side of the market with AA. I looked at the technical candlestick analysis for QQQ and while there would be a step back every here and there, I saw that the market would continue to climb. Until the news. I planned on AA climbing up with the market until its earnings date. Now it looks like the market is going to correct.

So: Damage control. Lets look at a current chart of AA:

There are a few factors at play here. First, the stock for its earnings estimates and its earnings targets which were issued last week has this stock as undervalued. I can see that, and anyone analyzing this stock correctly can see this. This is causing resistance to downward pressure and that's why even with two very bad Nasdaq days, you can see that the price pattern is forming a base. If this were a bad stock that was somewhat overvalued, it wouldn't be forming a base like that. There would have been a drop the first day, and then an even further drop the second and third day with the stock in a falling pattern. Further good news is that we are not actually that far from the stock price of 16 dollars, which is what the call option's strike price we bought. So with the oversold pressure of this stock and having price targets of 18 dollars, and a good earnings report on the way, there is decent pressure for this stock to rise. That is, if the Nasdaq plays ball and we don't keep correcting.
As you know, when the market moves, its like the ocean, and stocks are like beach balls floating on the waves near the shore. When the waves come in, they drag in the beach balls with them. When the waves then go back out, they take the beach balls with them. So it is with runs up and crashes.
What we need is the QQQ to get it together and start to climb again. But then again, I could also use a pony and a trip to Disneyland. I guess Im gonna get what Im gonna get.

So we are going to watch the QQQ. Lets look at the cubes shall we?

In the above chart you can see that the RSI (the indicator at the top) is on a downward trend and the MACD is on a downward trend. Most of the time, even though the stock price direction might be going the other way, it will turn and follow the indicators. So barring any major news, I expect a bit of a blowoff.

What we are hoping for is perhaps good news, or that AA will remain resistant to further drops even with a few more bad days for the QQQ. I will make a decision if I decide that it is time to cut my losses.Or if we hit even money, we just get out at even money.
More pics to come. Also, I straightened out the header issue. I looked up my site on a friends computer and I was suprized to find the header bleeding out into the main page making it look jumbled up. I fixed the issue and now am back to business.
Stay tuned for more stock picks. I will be looking around in the morning around 11am Chicago Central time 9/26.

Happy Trading!
Mark