Winning

Winning

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

ANVR did what it was supposed to do: drop

ANVR did what it was supposed to do: drop. And it did so significantly. However, I made the mistake of purchasing the wrong strike price. We are going to hold onto it and hopefully the price will drift down further over the next day or two to see if we can still pull out of this. Observe the options today even after over a 6% drop there is little movement:

Here is the problem. The stock suddenly shot up over 60% yesterday and in doing so, it went way outside the range of any of its strike prices that were previously set for its range by the market makers based on its then current price range.
So looking at this stock and knowing that it was going to drop the next day because the crowd is always wrong about overenthusiastic forward expectations with positive reportings on Phase 2 testing due to the fact that there are still two more phases of testing where the FDA could cancel the drug at anytime, I looked at the options that I had available, which were too far out of the money.
From now on what I am going to do is straight out short stocks where I cant find strike prices that are directly at the money or in the money. Problem solved.
This is a direct example of why you need 20 piles of money. Sometimes things like this happens. Even though I was correct about which way this stock would go today, the execution was inncorrect with the strike price. We will hold for one more day (which is why I went with the Octobers to combat option erosion) and see if this stock drifts down some more.

More to come
Mark

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