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Friday, September 18, 2015

Status Update

Well, in looking at the markets this morning there appears to be a developing double hammer which I will have to verify later in the afternoon. If this happens, the markets are going to drop hard and seek another bottom, making a double bottom before resuming upwards.
Yes at this point I am wishing that I did pay attention to the technicals yesterday. Turns out that the news overriding the techs is now over in regards to the Fed decision. So we have a QQQ call hanging out there with a market that suprisingly is doing the opposite of what I expected for no rate raise. I assumed that things would roar; instead, it sobered the market as the Fed did not raise rates because things wereent looking strong enough. "Ins't strong enough...weak market?" thought traders and the market drops. Unreal. Perhaps it was a no win situation, it would have dropped either way if there was a rate raise or no rate raise.
But whatever: the question is what am I going to do about it. I have a call out there languishing. Now what. I got out of the MRTX looking sparkling making money on both the call and the put end of the spread. I see two options (no pun intended) with the more obvious one being to double down when we hit a bottom and riding the bounce back up. However, my option expires next friday and is currently valued at half at what I bought it at. A chickenshit move would be to panic and sell it and take a half loss. But seeing Im already down 50% on it, I am going to hold and make a decision toward the end of the trading day due to things solidifying as far as the candles are concerned so I can make a proper call on what the market is going to do tomorrow.
I find that the end of the day is a great time to make a timing play. The candles for the most part arent going to move in the last 10 min (most of the time) and this gives me a window on what the market will do the next day to take appropriate action to jump in before the subway train door closes so I can ride the wave the next day at open. If I see that the market is going to drop further tomorrow, Ill get in with a put to mitigate the loss I have with the call. Also when I see a bounce about to happen, Ill get in with a double down. I still have a few days to expiration and a lot of things can go down. I will either way not take a total loss on the put option and I should be out no matter what on Tues-Wed.
Woah..wait a minute..in the time it took me to write this post, the option just jumped from twenty something cents to thirty something cents.


Stay tuned,
Tradinginsider

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