Watch TNXP

I think I may have found another money maker. TNXP Pharmacuetical is in the midst of a bunch of stage 2 and 3s. Phase testing, but mostly stage 2s. One recent stage two test offered mixed results which had the market punish the stock. Lets take a look at a price target and foward thinking thought from an analyst:

In a report published Friday, Oppenheimer analyst Akiva Felt initiated coverage of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: TNXP) with an Outperform rating and a price target of $18.

Analyst Akiva Felt believes that Tonix has been "overlooked" by investors after mixed Phase 2 fibromyalgia data was announced last September. There is "significant upside" in the stock with progress in fibromyalgia (Phase 3), post-traumatic stress disorder (Phase 2) and tension headache (Phase 2).

In the report Oppenheimer noted, "The market for approved fibromyalgia drugs topped $1.2 billion, despite only modest benefits, as well as tolerability issues causing treatment discontinuation. With TNXP's validated Phase 3 endpoint (30% pain responder) we see value in the fibromyalgia program despite "mixed" Phase 2 results."

Felt further added that the seriousness of PTSD continues to be a "high-visibility societal issue." The rationale for TNX-102 (both mechanistically and clinically) appears strong. "The current Phase 2 trial could yield breakthrough designation, if successful, and enable a faster path to market."

Felt commented, "Tonix is resurrecting isometheptene (used extensively through the 1990s), isolating the R-isomer as TNX-201 and avoiding hypertensive effects of the racemate. Data from a Phase 2 proof-of-concept study is set to read out by the end of 2015."

Oppenheimer enumerated the key upcoming milestones:

• Phase 2 TNX-201 headache data in 4Q15
• Phase 2 TNX-102 PTSD data in 1H16
• Phase 3 TNX-102 data in fibromyalgia in 2H16

Latest Ratings for TNXP
As you can see, this analyst pumped people up and they are getting on board buying up this stock. However if you go back and read the above release carefully you can see that there are problems.. tolerability issues, mixed phase 2 results. The 'rationale' appears strong. 'if successful'. While this company does have drugs on the market, I believe that the strong pull upward in price is a pile on momentum play as a lot of the above is foward looking thinking and a lot of ifs that have to still clear FDA approval hurtles. Lets look at this companies chart with some things that I noted in its technicals:

See where I noted with the arrows? Looking at a good chunk of time, you can see when the stock tops right before pullback, its a red candle with a reverse tail. This means the stock for the first time closed lower than its open, with a failed push upwards exploring a price high and not being able to sustain it. Every time this happened, the stock then slid backwards down. Now look at the circled candles. This is a vertified strong push upwards showing upward strength, and that the push up will continue.
So: we wait with this stock. Who knows how much longer people will pile on it. Just like the Bradley Cooper movie "Limitless" its not what the correct price should be valued, it what people THINK it should be. And we are going to let this stock tell us when the top has arrived like the other top points and then purchase a put. For now, we wait and watch this stock for that point.