Winning

Winning

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

I was staring at the data and then I was thunderstruck...

Do you remember that show about 12 years ago called 'Early Edition'? (https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=early+edition)
It was this show about this guy who one day got up and found a newspaper laying in front of his apartment door. He picked it up and took a look at it and right away noticed that the paper was dated wrong...it was tomorrows date. He looked at the headlines. Nothing he heard on the news this morning. It must be a gag paper. One of the headlines screamed about some disaster in town. Nothing on the news about it. So he went to work. The next day he woke up, and opened his door, and sure enough there was another newspaper, also dated a day ahead with headlines about events he didnt recognize. He then made some coffee and switched on the TV. The talking head on the news was excitedly reporting about a disaster downtown. The disaster that the paper from yesterday was talking about. He ran to grab the paper from yesterday that he put aside and stared at it. What the?
Well I feel that the same thing just happened to me. I was sitting here frustrated, staring at the data for the last 5 days trying to put it together, perhaps different frames? A big picture? Segmented focus on macro and or micro? I was really burning up some brain cells. But I like a challange. I got up to refresh my coffee, I then drove my car to the shop and rode back with someone else. Refreshed, I sat back down to work on it. 
Then it hit me. I am not pumping this up, I mean look below and tell me what you see. What I have is a chart of the last five days. The chart below is also semented into time periods within those 5 days. Note you see a moon, a 4 oclock face, and a sun. ( You can look at the same chart below this one. Its the same just without any annotations by me and its larger so you can really examine it.) Yahoo begins the chart with the premarket of this stock at 4am, or where you see the 4am clock face. The premarket goes all the way until open, where it is marked with a sunshine icon. The day goes all the way until close, which is marked by the moon icon. Between the moon icon and the 4am clockface is the aftermarket, immediately after the openday. Right after the 4am icon, time jumps to the next day at 4am.
Now. Look everywhere I have circled below. This is the premarket for QQQ. Not the dow futures, S+p futures, just the Premarket for the QQQ. What do you notice about the circled premarkets? THEY ARE ALMOST AN EXACT ROADMAP OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN LATER DURING OPEN HOURS THAT DAY, JUST COMPRESSED INTO THE 3.5 HRS IN THE PREMARKET. It almost looks like a sparkline of something that already happened, but it didnt happen yet.


My general rules still apply about possibly reversing at 12 and fading the gap for the first half hour. But hey, not a problem with what I discovered above is it? Especially if this keeps going.


Now look at this again full size without any of my annotations:

That old trader from the late 70's early 80's who would by at open only if the premarkets were up 15 minutes before open might find this a bit more precise. Again, since that guy was trading computers have taken over the market, with flash trading, and other programs. Its a different ballgame now. But this really stuns me. 
I am pretty damn excited to take this out for a test drive tomorrow. 
Ok, see you a half hour after open! You might want to take a look at this post again to really let this sink in. I dont know why the hell this is happening, its like I just found a portal in my closet to Narnia. Thats how freaked out this is. I mean, the market gives me a blueprint for the day right before the day starts??
I hope this is not a statistical fluke. If it is, so be it, I will find something else, because I really like digging my teeth into problems like this. Especially if I can get an edge.

See you tomorrow. It very well might just be the first day of something wild.

Tradinginsider

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