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Sunday, January 17, 2016

What is going to happen Monday/Tuesday

I don't feel this is over yet. I still think for one reason or another on Monday or Tuesday a lot of traders are going to have their eyes glued to a monitor along with another monitor of Bloomberg/CNBC right next to it.
From the last few minutes of the trading day on Friday I saw that the techs were not signaling a bottom or an imminent climb. This told me there could be a further rout on monday, especially if Asia once again spooks the markets overnight tonight with what just happened on Friday.
A few scary things: First, the technicals broke thier moving averages and the volume has really started picking up, defensive sell volume. Also, I told you that there would be a major crash this year like 2008. I dont think that this is it, I think this is a foreshock, much like the minor quakes before the 1989 earthquake in San Fransisco. Also the low prices of oil may be due to the Saudi's manipulation trying to clear out the smaller guys but I also feel that it is also due to a sharp drop in global demand due to a sharp drop in manufacturing due to a sharp drop of people buying manufactured products due to people not having as much money due to a sicker economy and less hiring and lower interest rates and returns.

Its all one big circle man. And the rooster is coming home to roost with a big bill.

So Monday. Strap yourself in tight and turn on your monitors. If you want a hint of whats coming at 3 in the morning, check out what the asian markets did. For a further hint of whats coming, check the premarkets a half hour before open. Looking into my crystal ball? I see one of two things. One: The market kind of lays there at the bottom maybe recovers a bit and then Tuesday shit gets crazy with a bad report or a bad overnight due to china or bad oil news. Two: All the before happens Monday morning and shit gets crazy Monday.
China is going to continue to have BIG problems. Oil is going to continue to slip. Did you read that forecast by that big oil guy in the news? He forecast that oil could fall into the teens before it recovers.
So. At the end of close on Friday I took out a QQQ spread at the money and close to expiration for any big moves Monday and Tues to cover most of what will/could happen.

Remember, puchasing stocks and options IS a gamble. Our job is to whittle the odds down to reasonable levels where we can make profits that exceed our losses through Contrarian moves based on macro events in the market as well as technical analysis along with the movement of smart piles of money.

There is no such thing as free money. You have to be the top 10% in trading in order to extract it from the 90% of suckers/adrenaline junkies/dummies/hopefuls/not really knowing what they are doing traders/losers/uniformed/uneducated/people who follow the crowd.

That is my input for today. See you tomorrow in the trenches.

Tradinginsider

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