Winning

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Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Thurs Forecast

I see a slightly slower up day, things stagnating a bit with a small climb up then kind of sideways as a top of a channel is tested. Not going to be a big action packed day...a bad jobs report the other day, China seems to have it together, Greece is fighting among themselves about the deal, and the Fed casually mentioned a rate increase in Sept. The market will be lukewarm and go up a bit then sideways.
Nothing to write home about, just be aware that it wont be a big up day tomorrow. But then again, it wont be a down day, either.
You know what? I am going to share a secret I learned from a friend of mine. He told me that his friend knew a guy (yes, 3 times removed from me, but listen) who would look at the premarkets 15 minutes before market open. If they were up, he would call his broker right before open and told him to move his 100,000 in the market (buying blue chip stocks...a portfolio of them, say 10-12 blue chip stocks. He would leave his 100,000 grand in until 10-15 before the market would close where he would call his broker and have him liquidate all his positions, so that he was totally out before the last bell. In other words, he never held overnight.
If however he checked the premarkets in the morning 15 minutes before market opening and they were down, he would simply do nothing that day.
He spent his day golfing and hanging out with friends and would make $100,000 a year doing this simple strategy, spending only 5 minutes a day on it and then not thinking of anything until the next day 15 min before opening of the market. So, to recap:

1. 15 minutes before open if premarkets are up, call broker and move in $100,000 into bluechips portfolio. No matter what, sell everything 10-15 minutes before market close and be all cash at the closing bell.
2. 15 minutes before open if premarkets are down, do nothing for that day.

Yeah. 100% return every year playing golf. This was about 20 years ago, but I looked at some charts from the past several months and this still looks like this will work. Ive been watching the premarkets. They seem to be a good indicator about 78-80% of the time for how the rest of the day is going to be. Sure, there are some mid day reversals and gap fades, but for the majority of the time, the markets still go the direction of what the premarkets report 15 minutes before market open.

$100,000 also isnt what it used to be. I would say stick with a figure of 250,000 or 300,000 to maximize your relaxing/traveling/golfing/laying on a beach in the Caribbean time. Start with 50,000. According to the investor, you will have 100,000 at the end of the first year. 200,000 at the end of the second year (plugging everything made back in). 400,000 at the end of the third year. Then you can just keep and spend 400K every year.

But what if it doesn't work? I myself haven't tried it. Two things on that: First of all, I have had enough experience in the market where I can see this working. Most of the time the markets follow the general trend as set by the premarkets before open. For example, China crashes 8% overnight. The following morning the premarkets were all in the red. Then the entire day was down. Or another one would be Greece signed the bailout deal on a Sunday night (or was it Monday) and the following morning before open, the premarkets were way up. For that day, the markets were up.
 I would say about 20% of the time the markets will take a sudden turn in the middle of the day and go the opposite way the premarkets indicated in the morning. An example on that would be a huge blue chip announcing their earnings are way low, and 2 other big blue chips also warn. Suddenly the entire market could hang a Ralph in the middle of the day and start dropping. Or things are bad one day and then there is a Fed announcement in the early afternoon that is very enthusiastic and suddenly the market turns around and starts climbing. Generally the Markets for the most part stay the course in any given day, with general fluctuations.
I think that this is totally possible.
Second on my list is the work vs reward ratio. As long as you already have the money to start with and its not scared money (as in all your bills are paid, cars paid off, house taken care of) this system has a great return/work ratio. You dont have to work 8 hours or more a day on this. It doesn't consume your life. You are free to do as you please wherever as now you dont even need a broker. Just a smartphone to check the markets for 5 minutes in the morning and then an automatic pre set order to move in your 100K, 50K, whatever you are using. You get up, grab your cellphone 15 minutes before market open, then place your pre planned trade if its a go.
Then the rest of your day you golf, travel, spend time with the kids, whatever.
Sounds like a pretty good deal to me.
Want to tweak this system? Now they have reverse QQQ/SPY etfs so instead of doing nothing on bad days where the premarkets are in the red before open, now you can jump in on the bear side of things and ride the market down for the day then selling everything and being all cash at the end of the day. Doing this would theoretically turn your earnings from 100% yearly to 200% yearly.

Ill buy that for a dollar.

Tradinginsider

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