Winning

Winning

Sunday, July 19, 2015

First G in the market? Heres how to play it safe at 90%

I was driving the other day and I was thinking: What is the safest way to enter the market when all you have is $1,000? A good question, I thought.
Upon thinking further, one would have to stay away from individual stocks. Things turn on a dime, investor sentiment can be fickle, or it could turn out that they were cooking a fake set of books. I've seen some stocks that were bought out for way under the current price so things plummeted. One time I held a company called FFTI because I saw it on the charts of Investors Business Daily listed as a 99 98 99 99 stock. I bought it and 4 months later the stock went out of business. I wasn't too happy lighting that 2 grand I had in it on fire.
However composites are much more stable. The QQQ is a Nasdaq tradable mirror. Is the Nasdaq going to suddenly go out of business? No, because its an average. And averages can take a hit and not really move much when one of its stocks drops like a rock. Averages are like a big cruise ship barreling along in the water: It takes effort to turn them, they like to stick to their channel, things are much more solid. Invidual stocks are like speedboats: They are quick to turn, and can be all over the place.
When doing technical candlestick and analysis along with some news/fundamental daily study of the market (Such as the Greece situation, China situation or anything else that concerns investors like a big report coming out money or a fed announcement on interest rates) one can have a trading success rate of over 90% winning trades. Long term.
So how do I read the chart? Here is a QQQ chart for example:

Its really very easy. Being able to read this like I show you above would be like going to the casino, and going up to a roulette table. Right before the ball is spun, suddenly you see an arrow floating right above the table in the air pointing at red or black. Then thats the color you put your bet on, then 90% of the time you win that bet. The casino would eventually ask you to leave. Its really like a hack. I can see what is going to happen. On that 8% of the time when something unexpected happens, or there is a jump or a drop due to the news, seeing that the QQQ steams on and likes stability, I simply double down when the charts normalize and show a top or bottom like in the chart above. You can do this over and over again, with the only real risk being right at the beginning when you have that lone $1,000. Other than that, seeing you are hitting in that 90% range here is how your money can grow, assuming that you are investing 100% right back into it: First month 3-4 grand, second month 6-7 grand, third month 10-12 grand....


Particulars

You will be using options, and you will have to learn how to use options, and that will be a later post. For now however, you will have to learn about the time element. If you think a big move is going to happen tomorrow or the next day, you want to use options that expire the soonest. If the move may take a bit more time, figure the timing and go that many months out. Another thing is the strike date and strike price and this is VERY important. You have to first look at the price that the stock is trading at, then see what strike prices are available for the month you are interested in. Then you have to decide how volatile is the stock? How fast is it moving/expected to move? If you think that it will move with more speed and pressure a few more points up, then you may want to buy a strike price a dollor or two outside of the money that has a cheaper price so that when the stock does surge up this call will double or triple. On the other hand, if the stock is not that volatile and are unsure if it could really go up a point or two, then you would want to choose an option strike at the money or just inside the money for a bit more of safety, but getting a lesser profit. For example, the stock is at 110. The 110s are a bit expensive, but the 113's are cheap as the options are out of the money at that price point, with people gambling that it will hit 113 and higher. So you buy the 113s and the next day the stock pushes up to 112, hangs for a bit, then settles in the high to mid 111's. Now your option is languishing at the 113 strike and is not climbing in price, but dropping a bit with worry and erosion.,
Know the stock you are investing in. This is why I have become a QQQ expert. Ive watched it for 15 years and am familiar with its personality and movements.
In a future post I will take you step buy step how I do all of this from this post, including screen shots of the option chain, what I am thinking as I select the proper option with the proper strike price and date.

Tradinginsider

0 comments:

Post a Comment