Friday Forecast 7/10/15

Here is what I think is coming on Friday.
Now in the aftermarket hours there is talk of China hitting the bottom and going up, we will have to watch that overnight to see if that holds.
If that maintains, we are also on the cusp of a interim deal between Greece and the EU. That will bring good news. And the market as well as Europe is also hopeful of this likely happening with reports coming out of the negotiations, so with all this put together, I expect an up day tommorrow, but a changeover in the afternoon.
I think some kind of news is going to hit around 1pm or so that will send the market in a different direction. So either its going to be down a bit or lazy in the morning and then the Greece news in the afternoon causing a rocket up, or up hard in the morning and then some sobering up in the afternoon because there is no news.
It really comes down to Greece. There is going to be chop until something definitely happens. And I am betting on the upside.
I am also betting on a positive outcome with Greece due to the fact that the Greek etf GREK started to surge independently of the Nasdaq and Dow that were losing steam at the same time. Divergence of this nature is a tell that some people know something and there is some big block buying happening.
Even though we are in a news driven cycle lets take a look at the techs:

You can see that we are in a new and relativley unknown territory. Due to recent events, the candles have dipped further below the 50-day support line getting scarily close to the 100. As a chartist, I don't like that, that shows instability. But with the news happening with China, the NYSE and Greece the news gives it a good excuse, it was emotional trading, not fundamental underlying weakness. The last time there was a red candle overshadowing a red candle, it was right before a big climb, now we have it again. I guess you can say red on red overshadowing is a bottom consolidation signal. Again, the news trumps technicals, but here I think the news is going to be good.
So for Friday: No down bets. Its sideways or up hard. Lets go Greece. We're waiting.

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