Winning

Winning

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Outlook for Thurs Dec 11th

Looks like the market is teetering on the edge here and time will tell if the weekly will keep it at the precipice and prevent the drop or if the public is going to start panic selling. Either way our positions all look  pretty good.
First of all, lets look at our QQQ position.

We got in at the low 5s and things are looking pretty good as it is now trading in the early to middle 7s. If things really start to drop, our option could easily double, perhaps triple.


Next up is GIS, and we are at the right place at the right time for it....we bought a put and the stock is about to report so so earnings (disappointment) and the market is about to drop pretty hard, thus pulling the put down with it. So we are good with that.


The last pick, PRAN, is the wildcard. They are pharmaceutical company that just announced good results for a phase 2 test so I decided to purchase a put due to the fact that it was only a phase two testing. There are 4 phases and then final review before a drug can come to market, I used to work at Searle. Companies spend over a billion trying to bring a drug to market. The public know that pharms are big money and if something works, it can get really hot and make a lot of money. Every time a good phase 1 or phase2 result comes out, people always pile on it, drunk on forward expectations of money dancing in their eyes. The reality is this: The stock wont make any money for years on the drug they are testing, because it is only phase 2. The FDA can cancel at anytime in the testing 4 phase process, and even then pull out before they will OK anything. It is my belief that the crowd will come to its senses on PRAN and the stock will drop over the next 3 days.


Hang on Loosely but dont let go: if you cling too tightly you're gonna lose control,

Mark

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