Winning

Winning

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Pick for 12/4-GCO

Today we take a look at GCO. GCO is a clothing apparel seller selling a wide range from hats to shoes from young adults to middle aged adults (Dockers).
 First, lets take a look at  the analysts expectations:

While the Growth est isnt as far into the red as I would like, the last 4 quarters point to there being a good chance of having a drop coming up this quarter. Look at the growth est again, there is a pretty big discrepency between that and the industry benchmark and the sector, so when things are near zero, I start to look at the ratio, and what happened on the chart the last two times it reported. Speaking of that, lets take a look at the chart;

I like that there is a coiled spring building here. And using my new set of rules, I am making a call to the downside based on the analysts observations. And there is one more thing from Zacks:

Will Genesco (GCO) Miss Earnings Estimates This Season?


Zacks
Genesco Inc. (GCO) is slated to report its third-quarter fiscal 2015 results on Dec 5, before the opening bell. In the last quarter, the company had delivered a negative earnings surprise of 38.2%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors Influencing this Quarter

Genesco boasts a strategic advantage of operating through both, its brick and mortar, and its digital existence. The company’s constant omnichannel initiatives are expected to drive results in the quarter. However, Genesco has been delivering dismal results over the past two quarters. The last quarter was mainly impacted by lower-than-expected sales and gross margin at the Lids Sports Group segment. Further, we remain concerned about the company’s rising costs, which was also reflected by the increase in selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of sales in the previous quarter. Hence, we remain cautious of its performance this quarter.

Earnings Whispers?

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Genesco is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positiveEarnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. This is not the case here, as you will see below:

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is currently pegged at 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate both stand at $1.44.

Zacks Rank: Genesco carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions
So looks like we got a triple backed reason to purchase some puts on this at market open providing that there is not  a huge move in the morning. We would be looking EARLY to be purchasing puts at the money, I'm looking at the Dec 80's. I will be on early in the morning between 815am and 845am Chicago time with the actual order if it does trigger.

Stay Loose
Mark

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