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Friday, December 11, 2015

Here is what we are going to do now

Ok, here is where we are right now. It looks as though we are on the verge of a big drop according to Carl Icahn. And in looking at the technical charts I would agree.
But as far as I see things with my experience two things are likely to happen Monday, to the forefront of a multitude of possibilities.
1. The Market is going to bounce back Monday for a bit
2. The Market is really going to crash hard, like a -500 point or more day for the dow.

So how do we cover either one of these possibilities? The key to maintaining control in this situation is by the strike price. We will go out of the money for the QQQ puts assuming that any continued crash is going to be hard, but not that crazy. This way we keep the price on the puts lower than if we bought them at the money right now as today was a decent down day, thus maximizing our value. We are betting that the market is going to drop medium to hard.
We also purchase some calls at the money, and close to expiration. So even a little move up or recovery tomorrow can be profitable.

So with this framework in mind, here are our two orders that we will move into right now for Monday's action:

QQQ Dec 2015 111.500 call (QQQ151218C00111500)

-OPR
1.64 Down 0.86(34.40%) 2:16PM EST
Prev Close:2.50
Open:1.74
Bid:1.64
Ask:1.66
Strike:111.50
Expire Date:18-Dec-15
Day's Range:1.43 - 1.97
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:2,290
Open Interest:2,387

The above is our call you can see it is at the money, or as close as I can get it to the money via the available strike prices, and I decided to not have it expire today as that would not work, so I went a week out for Dec 18th expiration. I want it to expire soon so it moves with more force in case the market moves upward. I will also be watching for a gap fade early monday morning in case things bounce upward so I can take my money on this. Now for the put:

QQQ Dec 2015 111.000 put (QQQ151224P00111000)

-OPR
2.00 Up 1.18(143.90%) 2:17PM EST
Prev Close:0.82
Open:1.46
Bid:1.87
Ask:1.90
Strike:111.00
Expire Date:24-Dec-15
Day's Range:1.41 - 2.20
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:603
Open Interest:5,090
This is a single put,not a double down. I might do the same thing again and double down on this monday if things move up a bit in the morning, depending of course on the days news and technicals. As you can see I went a bit out of the money to get a better price but not that far out of the money that the market doesnt move enough soas to not water this put and the put sits out there languishing.

I think this sets us up pretty good for Monday. Big upday on monday? We exit the call and we consider a double down on the puts. Big down day? We exit the puts and see what then from there.

Have yourself a good weekend

Tradinginsider

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