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Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Read between the lines..Saudis intentionally drove oil back down

This doesnt happen to me very often. I got whipsawed two days in a row over oil.
Oil is big market driving news. It makes the markets ignore the technicals: it makes the market suddenly turn left or right. Yesterday when it was announced that oil suddenly jumped the market suddenly gaped up against its chart which caught me with my pants down.
Then today the Saudis decided that they didnt like the prices starting to recover and decided to tank them again with thier announcment that they will keep production high increasing the glut of oil and drove the price back down today. As a result the market then went against its gap up technical and dropped with the news.
Im unsure as to why the Saudis are doing this. They are intentionally making thier oil cheaper. Back in the 1960s they identified this as a problem, they were competing with each other which was keeping prices down. They got together and formed OPEC, which basically sat all the Arab oil producting nations down at one table and they decided to price fix for further profit. And the one thing they did was intentionally cut supply two times in the 1970's creating an oil/gas shortage so that prices would rise. I dont know if you are old enough to remember that, but twice in the 1970s gas stations shut down and there was lines for blocks for fuel.
Now for some reason they have decided that they want the price of oil to drop and are intentionally flooding the market with huge production with not enough customers and I am unsure as to why this is happening. There are a multitude of conspiracy theories:
http://moneymorning.com/2015/05/19/5-oil-conspiracy-theories-that-seem-alarmingly-plausible/
However it is my feeling that it on the surface it is OPEC trying to shut down our own oil production here in the US. Or perhaps it is something more sinister, related to our economy and the Federal Reserve. I dont know.
But what I do know is this: I got whipsawed two days in a row over this and Im not happy about it.
BUT thats trading. The crystal ball is not 100% clear and things like this WILL pop up and I will just have to deal with it and continue what Im doing.
So thats why I got nuts today with these two spreads. Very dangerous purchasing a spread that expires tomorrow, but you can make some money on them if there is some movement.

More later today

Tradinginsider

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