Winning

Winning

Sunday, November 30, 2014

Update for upcoming week 12/1

The Nasdaq is now on a last gasp runaway train going up to one of its final stops before it turns around and heads back south. And I believe its going to be a pretty big downer. I'm going to do this in reverse and look at the foundation of the problem by looking at the weekly:

As you can see there is a pretty big foundation problem that is building right now. Take a look at the RSI, it is spooling downward and you can see this by looking at the overtops...from left to right the tops are descending as the RSI is losing steam. Now look at the MACD below, its more subtle, look very carefully at the peaks. Do you see where it says '14' near the middle left top? Look at the measurement of the peak of the rsi to the top of the indicator where it says 14. Now look at the other top peak, just right to the S (sept) between S and O. Now with your eye measure the top of that peak to the top of the indicator and compare that to the previous peak distance. Yes, its small, but there is a decending difference.
I understand that Ive been calling wolf about the top for about two weeks now. But since the Nasdaq has been running like a runaway train way beyond the topside, I cannot recommend that you get into anything long at this time. I know its coming, and the more this thing chugs north, the harder its going to slam back. And as a matter of fact, I think the price of fuel is a red flag signifying the problem. I made a call about 3 months ago when it was $3.30/g that once fuel gets down to about $2.80 a gallon, watch out for a stock market crash. Well that point is now.OPEC is still cranking out the same supply but the buyers worldwide are dwindling. Everything fine? No. There is a problem brewing, and I cover this here. Now lets take a look at the immediate QQQ chart:

I see the cubes are still in overtime. See the above two circles in the RSI? We have gone over the top of the chart twice, and look for comparison what happened last time.
The only timing I can glean off this is from the weekly, as the daily gives us no timing clues, we have to look at the weekly. And by looking at the weekly, I see about 1 to 2 weeks before a big bust.
I cannot do the two week climb at this time. Its really a ticking bomb. When it goes off, I want to be on the right side of it. I am going to have to keep doing the 3 day climb drop and doing the gainers list planning on a drop or chop coming in the next few days. At the very least I might do the two week climb srategy but only be in it for 2-3 days.

Be wary and be cautious. Heres a good idea if you like leaps. Get into something like a blue chip tech and purchase a few leaps, maybe 6 months to a year out and just hold. Maybe purchase one of these things in a few days, like wed or thurs. Because I feel that once this thing blows out, there could be a pretty sizable drop, and you could make some pretty good coin.
Storm clouds brewing.

Mark

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