Winning

Winning

Friday, November 14, 2014

Here is an interesting pick..NBS

Today lets gamble. NBS is a pharmaceutical company who has some news that's rustling up some volume, but is wrong.

1) They are going to be presenting at a few conferences
2) They are going to announce some stage 2 results.

To this I say, "so what". This is not significant news. You are announcing stage 2 results, and even if that is good, the drug you are working on is years away from the market, and possibly not going to market at all if the drug they are working on doesn't pass phase 3 or 4 testing. All hype and no substance news. You are presenting at a few conferences where you will be spouting forward view, not what currently is. This generates positive emotion and the crowd starts to get on board.

So, I took a look at todays chart for NBS:

What I saw here is a strong white candle, which is not really good for suddenly turning around and issuing a put. However...look at the RSI, it jumped and is maxed after a several day run up in this stock. The bad thing is the MACD hardly moved, showing significant possible upside room.
Now just based on the news alone, I would short/place a put on this stock. Any time I see a pharm stock that jumps due to a phase 1 or 2 testing result I always short/ place a put on it due to it being an emotional overreaction because it is still years away from making money. On the other hand here, they are not going to announce thier results Phase 2 results until November 17th, so this stock could still climb or stay up until November 17th. So the underlying mechanics of this technical situation is this: there is going to be 10% force upwards for a day or two then 30% force downwards as of tuesday as they announce on Monday. So to put it in money terms today I would invest 10-15%in a call today of the amount of the put I would invest in Monday at say, noon.
This makes it a tricky two parter. But that is how I am reading the situation
For example if you usually swing around 1 grand on your pics. Today you would invest say 150 bucks in this call today:

NBS Nov 2014 7.500 call (NBS141122C00007500)

 -OPR  
0.80 Up 0.40(100.00%) 12:33PM EST

Prev Close:0.40
Open:0.55
Bid:0.75
Ask:0.90
Strike:7.50
Expire Date:










Then on Monday we hope that it opens a bit higher and climbs in the morning somewhat in anticipation of the announcent event at the conference. Then we sell in Monday late morning midday. Then we turn around and buy a put and hopefully ride this back down over the next day or two after that.

Thats all for today, we are in NBS above at .80.

Stay Frosty,
Mark

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