Winning

Winning

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

My Agio call

So after taking a hard look at AGIO and following its price action here is the spread I have come up with. I will lay it on you and then go on to the why:

November options

          Nov 100 strike call- 10%
          Nov 95 strike call- 25%
          Nov 95 strike put- 20%

The above is the percent allocation of a regular full allocation of a option that I will issue. So for example, lets say you have 10,000-20,000 dollars and you regularly swing around 1,000 per call or put, this time you are going to do percentage allocations of this. So for the first one, the Nov 100 strike call, you will use 10% of what you usually use, in this case you will use 100 bucks instead of the usual grand (10% of a grand is 100 bucks). For the second, the nov 95 strike call, you will use 25%, or here in my example, 250 bucks. For the Nove 95 put, you will use 200 dollars.

Of course, the amounts vary based on your regular dollar amount that you use per pick.

Here is the actual calls and puts:
95.00
AGIO141122C00095000
3.50
3.20
4.30
0.10
+15.38%

100.00
AGIO141122C00100000
1.50
1.25
1.50
-0.10
-33.33%
95.00
AGIO141122P00095000
1.70
1.50
1.70
0.00
0.00%
Now here are the reasons that I came up with:

1. While this stock should be shorted due to the fact that this news is only a phase 1 result, there is the heat factor that is happening...they just reported several days ago, Cramer is all over this stock on his show, and the technical charts are showing that there is still upward movement room
2. Options expiration is in just a few days. I put the put out there in case there is a collapse from this only being a phase 1 test result announcement. And if there is a collapse, because we are so close to expiration, there will be a huge move in the put option price. The put is a hedge for this possibility. I have it hedged with the right percentage, as I actually feel that the crowd heat is going to drive it higher, so to the upside I have more.
3. The 100 strike price is in case there is a big push up, which would really help with some extra profit since 100 is outside of the money plus having this being so close to expiration, that would really jump our cash gain.

We are going to be out of this spread one way or another inside of two days. To those with the balls go the rewards. Everyone else can gape on the sidelines.

This is Sparta!
Mark

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