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Saturday, January 9, 2016

Here is the overall situation

I am sitting here early Saturday morning thinking about my trading week and the market. A few things:

1. Some people are asking "How can there be such a disparity on the jobs numbers/whats currently happening this past week or two in the market?" The answer for this one is simple. The jobs report is a trailing indicator. As the market for the most part kept pushing up for the last half of 2015, employers started hiring people as credit loosened up and people started buying. This is what the jobs report was reporting on. It wasnt reporting on what was going on this past week.
Also, when the market starts to tank, it takes a bit to start showing up on other indicators, ie jobs, etc.

2. Whats the deal with China? Why is it affecting us? Because we are basically in bed with China. A lot of our national debt is tied up with China holding the I.O.U.s. There is a post I made about this and you can read it here, it is fairly detailed on what China is up to. However to keep it short here, China is basically the worlds exporter of labor and resources. Being a communist dictatorship, they basically order people to work for far below normal wages to export products, get paid, purchase gold, and plunk it in their gold reserve warehouse. The problem now is twofold: The Global economy is getting sick and China is having problems being a Dictatorship trying to act like a capitalistic democracy via its stockmarket and that's not working. There is a lot of abuses and lack of regulation in the Chinese stock market like there was in our stockmarket in the 1920's. And as it is starting to hit the fan globally, these lack of regulations are starting to show the cracks in the Chinese Markets with massive instability. This massive instability shockwaves go through the world markets and hit us as well.
The global economy can be measured through GDP and factory output with oil being tied to this as well.
The economy is getting sick. So people aren't buying as much. So factories in China aren't selling as much so they cut back on production. Thus they dont require as much fuel for production so oil starts to not be used as much as the demand drops, so the price of oil starts dropping.

All the above is pointing to a massive crash, like 2008.

3. The technicals are also pointing to a crash happening this year. If you go to stockcharts.com and type in QQQ and look at its chart, change from daily view to 'weekly' view. Now take a look at that. You can see that the MACD and RSI are going down , down, down, and eventually the candlestick stock prices are going to turn and follow it. The QQQ could drop down into the 50s or 40s. The world economy is sick. The United States is living on credit, and when we can no longer pay the interest, the dollar could collapse unless some very big changes are made very quickly. I dont think injecting a trillion dollars in the economy is going to work again like in 2008. That was just kicking the can down the road for a couple of years. Now we have to deal with that can they kicked.

4. Why is the economy dropping? (In a nutshell) It the bankers fault. They run the federal reserve. Surprise. The government does NOT run the federal reserve, a group of private bankers does. They just dont want you to know that, so they named it the Federal Reserve. Anyway, they all got together and decided 100 years ago to manipulate credit and currency to make themselves rich. One part of the plan was national currency backed with Gold.
When the United States dollar was backed by gold, each dollar meant there was that equivalent in gold in our national vaults, such as Fort Knox. So there could only be so many dollars printed based on how much gold we had. On our money it used to say this:


Thats right. PAY TO THE BEARER ON DEMAND. That meant technically, you could go to the vault and demand the equivalent in Gold or Silver for the 20 dollar bill. Because basically the 20 dollar bill with this printed on it was an I.O.U. An IOU backed with the full faith and credit of the Unites States. So we were walking around with a pocket of I.O.U.s and using them to buy and sell. Purchase food, clothes and the things we needed. We didn't feel the need to turn them in and ask for its equivalent in gold or silver because WE KNEW IT WAS A GOOD IOU and SO DID EVERYONE else. The paper was the same thing as having its equivalent in Gold or Silver, so it was just easier to conduct trade with the paper money.

The bankers hatched a plan. They didn't like that there was a finite amount of money out there, because that meant there was just a finite amount of money they could make. They wanted more. So in the early 1970's they got President Nixon to take us off the gold standard, or in other words, dis attach the dollar from the Gold and silver so that our paper money was no longer backed by Gold and Silver.
This allowed them to print all the money they wanted, and for the bankers to loan out way more money and to make way more money. All the while the dollar started to get damaged as well as the economy due to massive inflation: The dollar bill is worth whatever they say it is. 
Every play the board game Monopoly? It has a 10,000 dollar bank in it and the banker is in charge of the bank and taking and paying out players. With this 10 grand, this sets the tone of the whole game and gives an indicator of what everything is worth. Imagine if all of a sudden you started printing bills upon bills of paper money that was free for you to print because it didnt have to be backed on anything and then you started to give piles of it to the banker to use. This would effectively make the money that all the players were holding to effectively get worth less and less so that the players would have to start to jack up prices in order to compensate. The whole game would go spiraling out of control. Instead of paying 400 for park place, they would have to ask 4 grand for park place, etc. The common mans salary would not be able to keep pace with it
  In 1993 a meal deal at McDonald's cost 3.79. That got you a quarter-pounder with cheese, a large fries and a large coke. That same exact meal  Today costs 7.89. Same product, higher price. The thing is, our salaries haven't been rising quite as fast and haven't been keeping up with the price increases. If you want to read more on this, you can read it here
So I have a video for you to watch. It will take about 20 minutes. I suggest if you dont have time now, come back sometime later today with a drink and whatever you like to snack on and watch this video in its entirety. You may be surprised and shocked, but after watching this video you will know everything that I know about the underlying forces of the economy and who is really pulling the strings:

A real eye opener, huh? Well more later this weekend, including my current positions and what I'm thinking to do next and why.

Tradinginsider

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