Winning

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Wednesday, August 12, 2015

You know what I think...

I just got out of the movie "Antman" and wow was that a GREAT movie. If you are into Marvel action movies....4 stars. You'll love it. Anyway, I get out of the movie and turned on the radio and heard that the market pared its losses and came all the way back up to the even line. I formed the candle that this represents in my mind and I suddenly realized that Im going to make good money on the bounceback that that candle implies on the QQQ and SPY calls. Of course, if there is some adverse news that the market reacts to overnight or early in the morning that will knock things out of orbit. But if there is no big news, get ready for a bounceback tomorrow. Ill be looking at the pre-markets a half hour before market open.
I like that I have control of my financial destiny. This is not the same thing as playing craps or roulette. If you operate the controls correctly, you can stack the deck with your trades with a percentage expectation in your favor. I find that extremely exciting. Its not free money, but its money you have to earn by trading in a specific way against the crowd and most of all against that screaming voice in your ear that demands that you play it safe and follow the crowd for safety.
Playing it safe and following the crowd will never get you anywhere. You can't stand out if you do everything that everyone does in the market. Where is the edge if you do that? Not everyone can take the same channel and make the cash. You want to be one of the 10 % and make the money in the long term.
People on the stock floor and those in old school big brokerage houses have figured out systems and pathways of information to seperate themselves from the crowd, because information that the crowd has access to is information that cannot make them money. Is it illegal? Yes, to different degrees, but nudge nudge, wink wink, old boys network. Hey, why are they out there anyway? To not make money like everyone else? No.

I don't try to out advance info the old boys network. Instead I take a different pathway. The news and information that I see is old, as in several hours old that the public can see.

My difference is this: Today you looked at the market and it was way down in the red at 11:30 in the morning. If someone said to you,' hey, buy option calls on the QQQ and SPY right now', you would reflexively think, 'what, are you crazy? Look at all that red! Its deep in the losses! If I buy some now, Ill lose my money!' That is what the voice in your mind is saying, and that same voice, the voice that says, stay safe...follow the crowd is what almost everyone else is listening to.
However right in the middle of the deep decline in the late morning, I also heard the safety voice saying that in my ear. I looked at the facts logically and I chose to ignore that voice and take a contrarian position while the prices were way low and flattened on the option calls because the stock was dropping. I saw that the candle said buy, I watched the volume, I saw the big picture that China was priced all the way into the market over the course of the last two days of trading, I added it all up in my head, and I decided to pull the trigger. I examined the fact that there was a 16% chance of further developments and bad news that still has to come out by China so instead of taking the August 15th expiration I went out to a week later.
So. I ignored the voice and did it. You know, its just gotta be the voice. I mean come on. I can see the same data that everyone else can see..they just cant ignore the screaming voice to stay safe. But its the only way to make the big money.

Tradinginsider

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