So that is it for today...Happy New Year I return Monday

Hey everyone, a quick wrap up.

Today I made 300% on my puts, which covers the 100% loss on the other end of the spread with 200% left over. Then on my previous spread, the next 100% gets eaten which leaves us with 100%. Now the DD calls eat all of that on one of the calls, so we are still down by a 100% on a single QQQ put.

That is way better than the alternative. I responded poorly to a bad situation by getting nuts but as it turned out it paid off. Again: two mistakes that I made...

1. Wrong strike price in last spread: When you are buying an option that will expire tomorrow, always purchase it AT THE MONEY as close as you can get. Dont think that it will move a point or two and you can go further out. AT the money. This will ensure any small movement will magnify as you have no time left to wait for big moves.

2. A candle with a tall upper tail at the top of a curve usually means drop unless there are some outstanding technical circumstances contrary to that.

Dont worry people, this is a blip in the big picture and the train is going to correct. Hell, I will still make you 30 percent in January AFTER recovering losses from the past week.

Have yourself a Happy New Years Eve and Day and I would suggest not driving tonight...sleep over whereever you are going. Bring a sleeping bag. If not you drinking, it will be someone else that slams into you. Stay safe.
The 1045report.com will return on Monday.

Tradinginsider

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Exit put

Exit QQQ put from yesterday with 300% gain overnight

QQQ Dec 2015 112.000 put (QQQ151231P00112000)

-OPR Watchlist

0.21 0.12(133.33%) 10:33AM EST

Prev Close:	0.09
Open:	0.13
Bid:	0.21
Ask:	0.22
Strike:	112.00
Expire Date:	31-Dec-15

Day's Range:	0.11 - 0.23
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	8,045
Open Interest:	23,335

There that will put a little bit of lead back in the old pencil

Tradinginsider

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So: what will I do

Here is the list of mistakes that I made:

1. wrong strike price today
2. wong call on top for DD puts
3. gap up went against rest of chart

So tomorrow, what I am going for is a big drop for options expiration day. That could make quite a bit of $.

Tradinginsider

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There was a bad report near close on...

the market. We are going to watch early at open for any sudden drops. Or jumps. I need something to happen in order to take advantage with our options that expire today.

There is usually a lot of activity and volititlity on options expiration day. If the cubes drop to 111.70 we could easily make 500% plus on our options.

More tomorrow...

Tradinginsider

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Read between the lines..Saudis intentionally drove oil back down

This doesnt happen to me very often. I got whipsawed two days in a row over oil.
Oil is big market driving news. It makes the markets ignore the technicals: it makes the market suddenly turn left or right. Yesterday when it was announced that oil suddenly jumped the market suddenly gaped up against its chart which caught me with my pants down.
Then today the Saudis decided that they didnt like the prices starting to recover and decided to tank them again with thier announcment that they will keep production high increasing the glut of oil and drove the price back down today. As a result the market then went against its gap up technical and dropped with the news.
Im unsure as to why the Saudis are doing this. They are intentionally making thier oil cheaper. Back in the 1960s they identified this as a problem, they were competing with each other which was keeping prices down. They got together and formed OPEC, which basically sat all the Arab oil producting nations down at one table and they decided to price fix for further profit. And the one thing they did was intentionally cut supply two times in the 1970's creating an oil/gas shortage so that prices would rise. I dont know if you are old enough to remember that, but twice in the 1970s gas stations shut down and there was lines for blocks for fuel.
Now for some reason they have decided that they want the price of oil to drop and are intentionally flooding the market with huge production with not enough customers and I am unsure as to why this is happening. There are a multitude of conspiracy theories:
http://moneymorning.com/2015/05/19/5-oil-conspiracy-theories-that-seem-alarmingly-plausible/
However it is my feeling that it on the surface it is OPEC trying to shut down our own oil production here in the US. Or perhaps it is something more sinister, related to our economy and the Federal Reserve. I dont know.
But what I do know is this: I got whipsawed two days in a row over this and Im not happy about it.
BUT thats trading. The crystal ball is not 100% clear and things like this WILL pop up and I will just have to deal with it and continue what Im doing.
So thats why I got nuts today with these two spreads. Very dangerous purchasing a spread that expires tomorrow, but you can make some money on them if there is some movement.

More later today

Tradinginsider

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Just got whipsawed again by oil. When wierd stuff happens, its time to get nuts. Spread today on the Qs. Very dangerous, but who cares. our ins

QQQ Dec 2015 112.000 put (QQQ151231P00112000)

-OPR Watchlist

0.09 0.04(80.00%) 11:44AM EST

Prev Close:	0.05
Open:	0.05
Bid:	0.07
Ask:	0.07
Strike:	112.00
Expire Date:	31-Dec-15

Day's Range:	0.04 - 0.09
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	2,938
Open Interest:	21,435

The above was for the put. Now for the call:

QQQ Dec 2015 114.000 call (QQQ151231C00114000)

-OPR Watchlist

0.35 0.36(50.70%) 11:59AM EST

Prev Close:	0.71
Open:	0.59
Bid:	0.35
Ask:	0.36
Strike:	114.00
Expire Date:	31-Dec-15

Day's Range:	0.29 - 0.59
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	10,927
Open Interest:	19,612

Here is how we hope to get something out of this..these expire tomorrow and are therefore very volitile.

I will be watching these closely today.

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Good morning

checking the issues now

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Oil news problem

Well due to the oil news there was a huge gap up in the markets today which is showing some pretty big strength to the upside. Our two puts are going to expire worthless on the QQQ DD....100% loss. That is going to take some time to recover. That should take about 3 weeks to dig out of that hole, perhaps 4. But the important thing is not to freak out, because overall this train rolls in positive territory. Its like now we are down at the craps table but we are going to battle our way back up again.

We are going to pay attention to that gap up in the QQQ and buy into it. Our in is below

QQQ Dec 2015 113.000 call (QQQ151231C00113000)

-OPR Watchlist

1.61 1.18(274.42%) 2:53PM EST

Prev Close:	0.43
Open:	0.75
Bid:	1.58
Ask:	1.60
Strike:	113.00
Expire Date:	31-Dec-15

Day's Range:	0.67 - 1.62
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	6,860
Open Interest:	11,484

That is all for today. Sometimes the news overrides techs, and that is something we just have to deal with.

Tradinginsider

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News over techs

Well, I waited out this morning for as long as I could to see if anything positive would shake out, but the technical charts were overridden by news:
The U.S. oil benchmark CLG6, +2.39% rallied more than 2.5% to trade at $37.74 a barrel, rebounding after a 3% slump on Monday.
“Most of the gains on Wall Street are linked to oil price moves and it looks likely that the trend of tight correlation between stocks and oil will continue in early 2016,” said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at Schwab Center for Financial Research.
Frederick noted much of what happens in stock markets next year will depend on whether oil prices stabilize and whether the dollar keep appreciating or not.

What does this mean for our DD put options? Not good things. I am going to have to take a hard look at them and the expiration date on them and try to pull something out of my keister. I shall return.

Stay tuned to see what Im going to do...

Tradinginsider

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For Tuesday

I expect a down day. I saw a reverse double hammer pattern in the candlesticks and I therefore expect a drop.
On monday I got in with a DD on QQQ options.
There might be the case the market goes up tomorrow (for whatever reason) but it drops in the morning fade. That is when I would exit to cash out my 2 positions for my QQQ options.

So I will be on in the morning around 0930 Central CST time.


Tradinginsider

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Double Down on QQQ options

We double down on the QQQ options. And now the first is not a dayput anymore, we hold overnight. Purchase these again to make a dd at this new price:

QQQ Dec 2015 112.000 put (QQQ151231P00112000)

-OPR

0.62 0.06(8.82%) 1:56PM EST

Prev Close:	0.68
Open:	0.68
Bid:	0.65
Ask:	0.66
Strike:	112.00
Expire Date:	31-Dec-15

Day's Range:	0.55 - 1.04
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	5,987
Open Interest:	20,097

We are going to see if this straightens out.

Tradinginsider

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we are going to convert..

We are going to convert this dayput to a regular put by holding it past today. Also the charts are forming a reversal/top pattern, so I think we are going to double down on this one about 15 min before close.

Stay tuned...

Tradinginsider

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Good day...QQQ puts dayoption

Welcome back. Today we are going to do a dayput on the QQQ.
Our in:

QQQ Dec 2015 112.000 put (QQQ151231P00112000)

-OPR Watchlist

0.79 0.11(16.18%) 12:16PM EST

Prev Close:	0.68
Open:	0.68
Bid:	0.80
Ask:	0.82
Strike:	112.00
Expire Date:	31-Dec-15

Day's Range:	0.64 - 1.04
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	4,644
Open Interest:	20,097

We will hold this until about 30 min before close.

Hope you had a good holiday.

Tradinginsider

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exit QQQ daycall

Today we exit the QQQ daycall with a nice little profit. Our out today:

QQQ Dec 2015 112.000 call (QQQ151224C00112000)

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Watchlist

0.67 0.18(36.73%) 2:26PM EST

Prev Close:	0.49
Open:	0.70
Bid:	0.66
Ask:	0.68
Strike:	112.00
Expire Date:	24-Dec-15

Day's Range:	0.45 - 0.78
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	6,543
Open Interest:	8,279

We got in at 54 cents.
That is a profit of 19 percent. For three hours. Not too bad.

I will be back on for any possible orders 15 min before close.

Tradinginsider

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Good Morning Purchase QQQ calls

Today we are going with a momentum play..purchase QQQ calls right at the money and let it ride for today, we will exit before the day is over...

QQQ Dec 2015 112.000 call (QQQ151224C00112000)

-OPR

0.53 0.04(8.16%) 11:47AM EST

Prev Close:	0.49
Open:	0.70
Bid:	0.53
Ask:	0.55
Strike:	112.00
Expire Date:	24-Dec-15

Day's Range:	0.51 - 0.78
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	4,185
Open Interest:	8,279

We hold these until about 20 min before close. Anything else and I will update.

Tradinginsider

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Annoyed I blew the call with those DD puts

While I made money today with my option calls, I lost over half with my option puts. Here is what happened.

I was trying to maintain a spread to cover either way from last Wed market Fed rates announcement. And I went ahead and bought right after the morning gap with the big picture of a spread. But now looking back at the spread a big up signal formed at the end of that day. Look at the candlestick for Dec 14th. Just follow the line right up from the date to its candle on that date:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=qqq
You can see that its a bottom candle with a long bottom tail and a small body on top...a big up/long signal.
So basically ive been dealing with trying to make that mistake go away and its going to take a few more trades. I have to remember not to look at the big picture and just try to maintain a spread on a news event, and to look at the candle charts. And not to make any trades until the last 15 minutes or so of the day once the candles are pretty much solidified with thier signals for the day.
The only time I want to trade in the morning is to cover a gap fade or to get in and ride the market up or down for the remainder of that day only. That golfer story guy I told you about uses this. He looks at the premarkets early in the morning and if they are up, he buys at the open and holds until just before close and exits everything. If the premarkets are down 15 min before open, he does nothing that day. So I will now trade:

1. After the gap fade in the morning at about 10am cst or so. This trade gets held for the duration of the day and dumped around a half hr or so before close
2. 15 min before close...a purchase to hold overnight based on the candlestick patterns.

The above is for ETFs only. Invidual stocks are open for grabs. Hey, I forgot about CTCT, constant contact. If any of you went ahead and bought that, congrats, you made about 500%+ if your timing was right. The day before expiration the stock dropped like a rock and the put would have rocketed up in value. I myself forgot I had bought that for almost nothing, it was a .10 contract.

So thats it for today, see you tomorrow!

Tradinginsider

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Exit DD call options for profit

We exit our DD call options for profit

QQQ Dec 2015 111.000 call (QQQ151224C00111000)

-OPR

1.15 0.17(17.35%) 3:28PM EST

Prev Close:	0.98
Open:	1.04
Bid:	1.08
Ask:	1.10
Strike:	111.00
Expire Date:	24-Dec-15

Day's Range:	0.68 - 1.16
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	6,021
Open Interest:	7,551

I will have a follow up post after this to discuss.

Tradinginsider

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I am riding this out

The market is rising and we are watching. Looking possibily to exit these DD calls...

Tradinginsider

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exit the DD puts for loss

We exit our DD puts for a loss. I am exiting these now because the charts say there will be a push upward and I dont want to lose anymore money on these. Our exit:

QQQ Dec 2015 111.000 put (QQQ151231P00111000)

-OPR

1.06 0.12(10.17%) 11:04AM EST

Prev Close:	1.18
Open:	1.10
Bid:	1.08
Ask:	1.11
Strike:	111.00
Expire Date:	31-Dec-15

Day's Range:	0.98 - 1.20
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	702
Open Interest:	8,301

I will be watching the market for any upside for our DD calls.

Tradinginsider

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good morning

checking things out today in the markets. Looks like there was a sudden gap fade and now the market rolls on to the positive side. We hold everything...

Tradinginsider

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QQQ Double down calls

I see an overshadow candle and an up candlestick. I believe it is time for a double down call on the cubes:

QQQ Dec 2015 111.000 call (QQQ151224C00111000)

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Watchlist

0.74 0.08(12.12%) 1:12PM EST

Prev Close:	0.66
Open:	0.77
Bid:	0.74
Ask:	0.75
Strike:	111.00
Expire Date:	24-Dec-15

Day's Range:	0.50 - 0.98
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	6,950
Open Interest:	7,378

I may be selling these puts or holding on to them for a bit, Im not sure. More later.

Tradinginsider

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A pattern is showing up

We are going to wait until after 2pm to reaffirm this, but a overshadowing candle is appearing on the chart, and this means that the cubes are going to climb the next few days. I have 2 puts sitting there languishing, so I may very well do a double down call option to cover the puts. I am looking at this now...

Tradinginsider

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Good Morning

Markets are up a bit. We will monitor the situation closely, as I am trying to exit these 2 puts I am holding.
I will look at this from all angles.

Stay tuned to see if this will straighten out...

Tradinginsider

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thats all for today

I dont see the value in purchasing fattened put options even though I feel the drop will continue. Seeing we already have a double down QQQ put out there we are just going to sit on it.

I expect the market to blow off yet more steam as investors have a good think about the market. They have decided to start selling seeing that there was an actual raise of rates. In looking at the chart on stockcharts, it looks as though the RSI and the MACD are showing that there is plenty more drop to come.

Until tomorrow,

Tradinginsider

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For now we hold the DD QQQ option puts

We are still holding the QQQ option puts from the double down a few days ago. They are for 111's, and it just barely dropped below that, so we sit on these.
I am unsure of how much further the market will drop, may have to come in today and purchase calls. I will be watching closely.

Tradinginsider

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exit QQQ put TD

Exit Triple down put from yesterday

QQQ Dec 2015 113.000 put (QQQ151231P00113000)

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Watchlist

2.17 0.25(10.33%) 9:54AM EST

Prev Close:	2.42
Open:	2.38
Bid:	2.46
Ask:	2.52
Strike:	113.00
Expire Date:	31-Dec-15

Day's Range:	2.17 - 2.38
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	42
Open Interest:	8,467

We still hold the other two puts and wait to see what the market does Note the bid and the ask, not the last. Our exit is at 2.49.

I will be watching

Tradinginsider

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QQQ chart telling me bad things

As much as I hate to do it, the QQQ chart is telling me bad things and that there is going to be a further drop. So I am going to reup my Triple Down position on the calls, and go ahead and purchase a third QQQ put (let the previous third put go earlier today) and hopefully ride things on down the next day or two. Our entrance is below:

QQQ Dec 2015 113.000 put (QQQ151231P00113000)

-OPR

Watchlist

1.75 0.43(32.58%) 3:08PM EST

Prev Close:	1.32
Open:	1.05
Bid:	1.79
Ask:	1.83
Strike:	113.00
Expire Date:	31-Dec-15

Day's Range:	1.05 - 1.91
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	528
Open Interest:	8,336

That will be all for today, see you tomorrow!

Tradinginsider

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Disney

Disney just bought the Star Wars property off of Lucas for a bit over 4 billion 4 years ago. Now from this one film alone, they are expected to earn 2 billion alone, with already advance tickets at 100 million dollars. This will be a slam dunk to Disney for thier stock, and thier stock is in a position to grow short term with the boon this movie will provide to their coffers.
Its not only the actual movie ticket sales, its the Perceived benefit that this will provide Disney. People will see the movie break records and purchase Disney stock. So we are going to go with Jan calls and sit on them through the first two weeks of the movie breaking records.

DIS Jan 2016 115.000 call (DIS160115C00115000)

-OPR

2.58 0.09(3.37%) 1:53PM EST

Prev Close:	2.67
Open:	2.58
Bid:	2.54
Ask:	2.57
Strike:	115.00
Expire Date:	15-Jan-16

Day's Range:	2.18 - 2.90
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	2,182
Open Interest:	39,514

More later.

Tradinginsider

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We had a call hanging out there

We are now closing that call from my Ican post with a bit of profit. Our exit:

QQQ Dec 2015 111.500 call (QQQ151218C00111500)

-OPR

1.98 0.69(25.84%) 1:46PM EST

Prev Close:	2.67
Open:	2.97
Bid:	2.00
Ask:	2.03
Strike:	111.50
Expire Date:	18-Dec-15

Day's Range:	1.44 - 2.97
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	1,252
Open Interest:	3,110

Stay tuned for my in with Disney.

Tradinginsider

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Hold the DD puts from the other day QQQ

So we are going to hold those DD puts from the other day on the QQQ
Right now I am figuring out what I am going to do next. I am looking at the chart and market direction.

Tradinginsider

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Exit Triple Down Put QQQ

We exit our TD put with not as much profit as we had hoped...it actually got up higher today..

QQQ Dec 2015 114.000 put (QQQ151224P00114000)

-OPR

Watchlist

1.97 0.62(45.93%) 1:22PM EST

Prev Close:	1.35
Open:	1.05
Bid:	1.75
Ask:	1.78
Strike:	114.00
Expire Date:	24-Dec-15

Day's Range:	1.05 - 2.16
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	1,332
Open Interest:	2,896

More upcoming on the other two puts...

Tradinginsider

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good day people

be right back, checking things out

Tradinginsider

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My rare Triple Down TD put

The charts are showing a reversal signal. So I am going to go for it with a third put for a triple down. We are going to enter in with flattened puts due to the price swing today. Our in:

QQQ Dec 2015 114.000 put (QQQ151224P00114000)

-OPR

1.61 1.14(41.45%) 3:05PM EST

Prev Close:	2.75
Open:	2.08
Bid:	1.60
Ask:	1.63
Strike:	114.00
Expire Date:	24-Dec-15

Day's Range:	1.51 - 2.63
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	3,494
Open Interest:	1,896

So now we got three puts out there. We shall see if this was just euphemism or if the markets sober up about this tomorrow.

Tradinginsider

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Now exit yesterdays QQQ call for profit

now we pull the trigger on yesterdays QQQ call our exit is below

QQQ Dec 2015 113.000 call (QQQ151224C00113000)

-OPR Watchlist

1.53 0.41(36.61%) 3:00PM EST

Prev Close:	1.12
Open:	1.49
Bid:	1.51
Ask:	1.52
Strike:	113.00
Expire Date:	24-Dec-15

Day's Range:	0.94 - 1.53
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	2,013
Open Interest:	3,369

So we just got rid of the DD call 5 minutes ago, now we release the call from yesterday, now we are all in for puts on that end of the spread.

Tradinginsider

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slight gain on the DD QQQ option we exit

we exit our todays QQQ option for a slight gain, but hold the older one from yesterday. Our exit:

Prev Close:	1.35
Open:	1.78
Bid:	1.39
Ask:	1.42
Strike:	112.50
Expire Date:	24-Dec-15

Day's Range:	1.20 - 1.78
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	1,289
Open Interest:	3,429

Thats all for today. So we go into tomorrow holding our single QQQ option and our DD puts for the QQQ.

Tradinginsider

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Purchase QQQ call

We are going to shore up our spread with a QQQ call effectively making this a DD both ways...up and down.

Below is our in

QQQ Dec 2015 112.500 call (QQQ151224C00112500)

-OPR

1.30 0.05(3.70%) 1:36PM EST

Prev Close:	1.35
Open:	1.78
Bid:	1.30
Ask:	1.32
Strike:	112.50
Expire Date:	24-Dec-15

Day's Range:	1.25 - 1.78
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	875
Open Interest:	3,429

Now we sit tight and wait for the swings after Yellen talks.

Tradinginsider

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Interest rate decision, we are gonna hang tight

We are going to hang tight for the interest rate decision today.

Tradinginsider

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QQQ option calls

setting up for tomorrows announcement. Getting back in QQQ calls for that part of the spread.

QQQ Dec 2015 113.000 call (QQQ151224C00113000)

-OPR

1.41 0.46(48.42%) 1:38PM EST

Prev Close:	0.95
Open:	1.38
Bid:	1.41
Ask:	1.43
Strike:	113.00
Expire Date:	24-Dec-15

Day's Range:	1.16 - 1.56
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	1,830
Open Interest:	2,760

Thats all for today,

Tradinginsider

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Good Monring

Today we are going to exit out of the call part of our spread that we had. We got in at the mid 1.60s and now we exit:

QQQ Dec 2015 111.500 call (QQQ151218C00111500)

-OPR

Watchlist

2.17 0.81(59.56%) 11:37AM EST

Prev Close:	1.36
Open:	1.78
Bid:	1.83
Ask:	1.85
Strike:	111.50
Expire Date:	18-Dec-15

Day's Range:	1.78 - 2.21
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	1,576
Open Interest:	3,421

Not a huge gain, but a gain. We lost a bit through erosion, but we still take the money. I need to figure out a price point to renter later today for the announcement coming Wed from the Fed.

Tradinginsider

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Shore up with DD QQQ options

The reason I am going with Double Down options on the QQQ are twofold: I dont think the market is going to like the Fed announcement on Wed, and also the techincals are due for a bit of deflation.
We double down with QQQ puts:

QQQ Dec 2015 111.000 put (QQQ151231P00111000)

-OPR Watchlist

2.49 0.11(4.23%) 1:36PM EST

Prev Close:	2.60
Open:	2.59
Bid:	2.59
Ask:	2.63
Strike:	111.00
Expire Date:	31-Dec-15

Day's Range:	2.34 - 3.30
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	4,160
Open Interest:	5,472

If things go a bit south, we will readjust our ins.

Thats all for today,

Tradinginsider

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Here is what Im thinking

The market is going to walk around the middle line until Wed announcment from the Fed on Interest rates. Ive been playing this, which is why I sold the puts and made some coin early and skipped the gap fade. I wanted to lock in a bit of profit, and I gambled that would come back up from its drop. Which it did.

Ill be looking to purchase more puts later on today once it comes up a bit more. If it doesnt, I still will purchase some puts. I want both sides covered for wed. announcment. Last time the fed announced about rates, the market went haywire and went the opposite way I thought it was going to go. If I remember correctly it dropped after it climbed after the 'no rate hike' decision. I bet on the market to roar, and I was way wrong, instead the market saw no rate climb as a negative, as in the market was still sick, so the market dropped and I was caught on the wrong side. This time I have a spread.

Talking about Interest rates....

The call

David Stockman, a former budget director for the Reagan administration, is at it again. He has been a steady bear in the face of this resilient market, and now he’s got a specific date for what he sees as the beginning of the end for this bubble: December 16, when the Fed chair takes the mic. “Yellen and her posse better pray for a monetary Tonto because they are riding headlong into an ambush in the canyons of Wall Street,” Stockman wrote. “To wit, they cannot possibly raise money market interest rates — even by 75 bps — without massively draining liquidity from the casino.” Read more on why he says the “Gong Show” begins Wednesday and will have dire ramifications for stocks.

It will be very interesting how this pans out. If they do raise, I would GUESS a big drop. But who knows. Thus my spread. (I will purchase puts later today on the cubes, I already have the calls.)

Come on back later for my in with the puts.

Tradinginsider

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Exit QQQ put

Exit the QQQ put. I think things are going to be bouncy today due to Fed announcement upcoming. Our exit:

QQQ Dec 2015 111.000 put (QQQ151224P00111000)

-OPR

2.09 0.20(8.73%) 10:11AM EST

Prev Close:	2.29
Open:	2.20
Bid:	2.19
Ask:	2.26
Strike:	111.00
Expire Date:	24-Dec-15

Day's Range:	2.06 - 2.27
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	253
Open Interest:	5,455

Be prepared to purchase this back within an hr or two.

Tradinginsider

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Good Morning!

Checking on the gap fade, i will be right back

Tradinginsider

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Trading for a living

Right now I am going to assume that you are working away at your desk somewhere, possibly  an office, possibily a cubicle. Maybe you work from home, have your own business.
My friends dad worked as an engineer in the 60s and 70s and saw first hand the devestation of guys in his office losing all their money in the stockmarket during the 1970s and even saw one guy crying. He right then decided that he would stay away from the stockmarket and be safe. He was never going to end up like that, crying sitting at his desk.
Turns out that was a big mistake because he missed out on the go go 80s and 90s when he could have made a small fortune.
For a while, I worked in Milwaukee at a big mutual fund center. We were the center for some major funds, one in particular I recall called the Jacob's Internet Fund, where they guy had a fund full of internet stocks. Well I bet you can guess how that guys fund was doing in 200-2001. The entire thing was down 80 percent at one point and people were losing thier life savings and yes, the phone was ringing off the hook with these people calling and freaking out. They all wanted to speak to Jacob. Jacob didn't want to take their calls. What was he supposed to say? Hell, it seemed like a good idea to start the fund in 1995, and things were going gangbusters in the late 90s for the fund.

The problem with mutual funds and fund managers is that they are inelastic. They cant counter and flow with the market. I on the other hand am very elastic. No matter if the market is roaring or dropping like a Lead Balloon, I will be making money. I am a technical chartist, so I know about 85% of the time what is going to happen. I have that going for me. Then I dont own stock outright. That makes me quick on my toes. Plus, I really just stick with ETFs, such as QQQ or SPY. These are HIGHLY liquid stock etfs with VERY liquid options. I just follow the etf up and down buying option calls and puts, doubling down here and there.

Seeing that I know what I am doing, it would make me financially irresponsible NOT to be doing this.I can make money in a crash. I can make money during a bull run. And I will be teaching you how to do this.

At first, you will be doing this on the side. Sign up with my twitter account (should be on front page of my blog) to get instant information on my picks as I make them and trade them realtime. Keep your dayjob. I only tweet 1 or 3 times a day. As things progress, you can be using more and more money in the trades, but keep them to 10 different piles, and only use a pile at a time, perhaps 2 piles at a time if I tell you to DD on something. Preferrably, you will have 15 to 20 different piles of money, as I am not always correct on my picks, I am running about 85%-90% correct. That way you can aborb hits and keep going making money in the long term. 
Then through watching me, you will learn how to do this on your own, and you can then quit your job if you so choose, get a multi screen computer, turn on CNBC, Bloomberg or your cable channel of choice, get a cup of coffee and start trading while still in your bathrobe.

Tradinginsider

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Well, what about the Jan call?

You may have been following this and thought, ok, you are doing spreads..what about that January call from a few days ago? Thats still hanging out there and it looks like the QQQ has moved on.
You got a point, the call is still hanging there, and it is worth about 70% less than what we purchased it for. 
This is why I utilize double downs. You have seen that I will say "Double Down or DD" meaning bet double what you usually do for this play, or I will say, buy a second order of the same order from a day or two ago effectivly making it a double down.
So lets say I purchase a spread. I buy both a put and a call of the QQQ. Now right off the bat I may feel that the charts say that there is a likely possibility of the market falling over the next few days because the RSI and Candlesticks and MACD are signaling an imminent drop. This is when I might do a single QQQ call but a Double Down (DD) put making my call to put ratio 2:1. This covers the upcoming drop nicely but also takes care of the noise: The sudden rises. The sudden good news. The sudden momentum play to the upside. The seemingly go against the grain days that you guys know too well that are in the markets yourselfs. These days happen. That is when I exit my call leaning into a good upday and keep on hangin onto my Doubledown, providing of course that I am looking to see that we dont have a 'runaway train' developing. A runaway train is something I came up with that describes the market making a long term direction change leaving behind a trading range that will effectivley leave your certain stock price put or call langishing.then expiring in the middle of nowhere with the actual stock price now operating somewhere else. When that situation happens, you want to exit your position and recoup any money you have left before it goes and expires worthless. However, back to my example with my 2:1 spread. What will likely happen seeing my charting skills are pretty good, is that the imminent drop I saw coming will happen, the Double Down end of things will make money at a 2x amount, making twice the money, thus covering the call's losses and still making a profit. I then just exit the call and take any money that might be leftover.

Now what I will usually do is this: Simply purchase a call and a put and wait to see what shakes out the next day. If a big upday or a big downday happens the next day, Ill take the money and sell either the call or the put, leaving the other half of the spread alone. Then hopefully the market will turn and go the other way the next few days making money on my other end of the spread that I had left over.
That above senario is best case and doesnt happen too often, so I have to utilze the DD. Lets say the market is due to drop. I can see it in the charts, things dont look good. I buy a 1:1 spread, one put and one call on the QQQ.  The next day the market is up. I exit the call and make some money. Now the puts are flattened and are really cheap plus I am still holding the put from the previous day. Seeing that my charting says the market is about to drop it would be a good idea to Double Down (DD) and get more puts at a cheaper price. Then over the next 2 days, boom. We exit our DD puts.

The double down allows you to have some fault tolerance and allows you to iron out seemingly random noise in market movements.

I usually dont go for a triple down. If you go there chances are you are wrong as you were wrong yet again with the DD and now you are just gambling and maybe you dont know what you are doing. I try to pick up and sell any thing laungishing out there. Such as my 115 Jan 15 calls I got hanging out there. I will have to mop that up on Monday. I already covered them with my DD a few days ago, now Im just going to exit them and take whatever money is left. Maybe if the market fades the gap positively Monday morning, I will exit them if the price goes up a bit making the loss better to ingest.

So the double down is like moving around cards. You do a spread. Market moves one way, you see through the techs you are still good, you double down on one end. Market then moves good, exit the DD and then exit the call. And so forth.
Its a way to fix a sudden suprise move and aborb losses and increase gains. But you have to know what you are doing. You will learn from me as I will describe my moves and what I am thinking from this point onward as if you were looking over my shoulder when I am on the computer.
Hopefully this will enable you to learn how to trade and then make a living buying options on the QQQ and SPY.
Lets do it!

Tradinginsider

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Here is what we are going to do now

Ok, here is where we are right now. It looks as though we are on the verge of a big drop according to Carl Icahn. And in looking at the technical charts I would agree.
But as far as I see things with my experience two things are likely to happen Monday, to the forefront of a multitude of possibilities.
1. The Market is going to bounce back Monday for a bit
2. The Market is really going to crash hard, like a -500 point or more day for the dow.

So how do we cover either one of these possibilities? The key to maintaining control in this situation is by the strike price. We will go out of the money for the QQQ puts assuming that any continued crash is going to be hard, but not that crazy. This way we keep the price on the puts lower than if we bought them at the money right now as today was a decent down day, thus maximizing our value. We are betting that the market is going to drop medium to hard.
We also purchase some calls at the money, and close to expiration. So even a little move up or recovery tomorrow can be profitable.

So with this framework in mind, here are our two orders that we will move into right now for Monday's action:

QQQ Dec 2015 111.500 call (QQQ151218C00111500)

-OPR Watchlist

1.64 0.86(34.40%) 2:16PM EST

Prev Close:	2.50
Open:	1.74
Bid:	1.64
Ask:	1.66
Strike:	111.50
Expire Date:	18-Dec-15

Day's Range:	1.43 - 1.97
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	2,290
Open Interest:	2,387

The above is our call you can see it is at the money, or as close as I can get it to the money via the available strike prices, and I decided to not have it expire today as that would not work, so I went a week out for Dec 18th expiration. I want it to expire soon so it moves with more force in case the market moves upward. I will also be watching for a gap fade early monday morning in case things bounce upward so I can take my money on this. Now for the put:

QQQ Dec 2015 111.000 put (QQQ151224P00111000)

-OPR

Watchlist

2.00 1.18(143.90%) 2:17PM EST

Prev Close:	0.82
Open:	1.46
Bid:	1.87
Ask:	1.90
Strike:	111.00
Expire Date:	24-Dec-15

Day's Range:	1.41 - 2.20
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	603
Open Interest:	5,090

This is a single put,not a double down. I might do the same thing again and double down on this monday if things move up a bit in the morning, depending of course on the days news and technicals. As you can see I went a bit out of the money to get a better price but not that far out of the money that the market doesnt move enough soas to not water this put and the put sits out there languishing.

I think this sets us up pretty good for Monday. Big upday on monday? We exit the call and we consider a double down on the puts. Big down day? We exit the puts and see what then from there.

Have yourself a good weekend

Tradinginsider

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