Winning

Winning

Thursday, October 30, 2014

APL: my view

Today we turn our attention to APL. I found this stock by rooting around in the earnings calendar. It is due to report on Monday, and its business is natural gas. Lets look at the analysts estimates for what is expected to happen on Monday:


This is an interesting case. Look at the last 4 quarters of earnings surprises There was two epic misses and one very big hit. Then look at the growth est below, its expected to do pretty good. But then again, this stock could pull a repeat like it did in two past recent quarters and totally blow it with a legendary miss, which would send this stock way down. Then again, Maybe it will a huge number when it reports, like it did this past June. Add this factor to the current growth est and you could have a stock that will go to the upside.
There is another factor that is happening in play here...the stock is setting up in a coiled spring. This means that the price action is coiling up like a snake rearing up and coiling back into itself right before it explodes out one way or another:

The thing is with the information we have, we don't know which way this thing is going to blow. This is why this time with a 50-50 shot we are going to do an options straddle, i.e. puchase a call and a put at the same time. It is my opinion that this thing will blow over the course of two days after Monday to one side or the other enough to make a profit. So we are going with the Novembers:

Option call:
35.000.80-1.101.251.9020822

And the option put:
35.001.000.000.901.60-1703

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