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Monday, February 29, 2016

New system

So Ive worked out a new thing Im doing. Here it is:
First indicator I am going to be using is the Money Flow Index along with the candlestick charts:


During the day, the only time I will make a move is when I get more than a 50 move to the upside or the downside. I circled in red the two times that this happened today. I actually forgot to circle the third time it happened: 20 minutes after the market opened and I faded the gap.
Now, once I get an alert from above, I then move to the chart below:

In the above chart I am reaffirming the signal with the RSI as the main lead, the candlesticks as the secondary, the the Coppock Curve and the EFI as the backup. I tried to whittle the day down to about 3 trading times that I will be trading in order to cut back on the indicator noise, or overload. The following will be my day:

1. I will sell my overnight option from the night before that I held overnight about 10 min after open. More on that in number 4 below.
2. 20 minutes after market open, the gap fade setup should be at its maximum with all the orders being executed in a glut stacked up from the premarket and the night before. I will place a contrary position at this peak and then exit that position about 20 minutes later.
3. I will then watch during the day for any Money Flow index/RSI signals and issue puts/calls from there.
4. 10 minutes before market close I will watch the Bars up Down Strategy: If I get a blue arrow as the last arrow in the last half hour, I buy a call before close and hold overnight and sell about 10 min after open. If I see a red arrow as the last arrow in the last half hour I will purchase a put before close and hold overnight and sell 10 min after open.

Thats pretty much it! I look foward for tomorrow to use this. Of course tonight there is no held overnight put/call so we will start with the gap fade (number 2 above).

Tradinginsider

exit both puts

now exit that put and dd put at the below:
QQQ MarWk1 103.5 Put 1.16 1.09 1.11 1,359
I shall return

Tradinginsider

DD on that morning put

I am going to DD on that morning put hopefully at the top of the gap fade:
QQQ MarWk1 103.5 Put 1.01 0.98 0.99 879
I will be back in 20.

Tradinginsider

Good Morning

I am going to paper trade this gap fade...
QQQ MarWk1 103.5 Put 1.14 1.13 1.14 508
I will be back in 20 min...

Tradinginsider

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Sunday Update

Hello everyone, its been a few days. Ive been pouring over data and getting things together in order to get it together for monday, and here is what I came up with.

I suffered a epic collapse with the pre day sparkline/mirrors the day chart threory.
For 2 to three weeks, the sparkline was almost a MIRROR of what the market did later that day. I got all excited about it. How can such a thing exist? It was like getting tomorrows newspaper today. The only thing that was tapping me on the shoulder about it was this..if everyone can see what I can see then everyone is going to start doing what Im doing making the system inneffective. Imagine a rolling stock. For the last 3 months its been going down to 32 then rolling up to 38 2 weeks later then rolling back down to 32 and again and again. At first when you find it you are pretty excited. You backtested things and found that yes, this stock was rolling. You make money at it for about a month. Then you notice volume suddenly start to dry up. You bought it at 32 but then at 38 no one wants to purchase it from you. Then the stock stops rolling and things start getting random.
This means Everyone saw the pattern. Everyone wanted to buy at 32 but no one wanted to sell at 32 and no one wanted to buy at 38 but everyone wanted to sell. Boom. Ineffective, and suddenly the stock goes random: roll over.
So I believe I was a victim of this. Everyone caught on. So be it, Im not going to whine about it. It just went away like a puff of smoke.
But that's how trading it. You have to keep moving and sticking and finding things out, things you can use.
The original intention of this site was to bounce options: every day at 1045am I would seek out and find inefficiencies due to fear and greed and profit on them by using the most up or the most down lists for the day and depending on which way I think the market is going to go in the next 1 to 3 days using technical candlestick and indicator analysis.
So instead this is what Im going to be doing: I am going to be making 1-2 trades a day using in depth tech analysis live from the market floor 5 minutes bars along with some level 2 data. My trading window that I will be using:


Yes, this is a lot of data to be looking at, I have to filter a lot of infoAlong with this I will occationally make a trade and hold it overnight on the QQQ when the daily chart makes a call. One such time to make a trade is right at open in order to fade the gap. This will almost be a daily occurance and if nothing else happens that day, there will almost always be an open gap play. Then perhaps one or two other things during the day. By the way while you are following me, paper trade me. Do not put real money into this until I get this new thing ironed out. In looking at the chart above, its really easy to say, "Well here I would have done this, or right here I would have done that," but under real live fire, its tougher than it looks. If you want to see what this is like under live conditions, hold a piece of paper verticle wise up to the screen and pick any time in the graph above. Then make a call. Which way based on the charts? Now slowly start moving the page across the screen to the right to watch what actually unfolds and how your call does. Its not easy.
I am going to be continually testing new indicators attempting to get more of an edge and all the time keeping my eye on my money.
Amen. See you tomorrow at OPEN>yes. Open.

Tradinginsider

Thursday, February 25, 2016

ok guys, I just got great data. Will test on...

This was a very interesting experience today as I just got some great data and found some indicators that I will now try out tomorrow that I feel will give me a nice advance heads up before there are moves. And also, I figured that I will only be using call options for the most part on days when things appear to be moving upwards, and I have not figured out what I am going to be doing on days when the stock is moving down more in general. Lets take a look at the indicator I have figured out that I will be using today and look at what it would have done today (yes, it is backtested):

The above are live level 2 quotes going through a live 5 minute candlestick bar utilizing the RSI and WIlliams %R indicators which I feel give a great livetime forecast on the intraday movements. I look foward to using this tomorrow for the first time in my paper trading. I will need more data for a big down day however. I will assume the RSI will be working in reverse for such a day...as in I will be doing puts for the day instead of calls and everytime the RSI comes up over the 50 mark, then thats time to put option, much as everytime it dipped below the RSI (circled three times here above) I should have purchased a call option.

Tomorrow I will be out for the day and will return on Monday. This is when we take this out for a paper test drive.

Tradinginsider