AAPL forecast...will drop to 102.5

I took a look at AAPL's stock chart and its even worse than Google. The reason for this is Google has a lot going on. They just reorganized and are working on a lot of different projects for the marketplace so much so, that they broke themselves down into 5-6 different entities. Like a RSIC parallel processor. However Apple has been making out like Blackberry. Very innovative at one time, now not so much so. This is going to punish the stock price harder than google. Lets look at the chart:

There are several indicators all telling me this. First of all, the candlesticks on the chart are flashing top signals with the big upper tails and 'spinning tops' like we got today. Second of all, the ADX indicator is not showing a reversal is imminent, as the big black line is still rising and is still at 44. It needs to be below 20 preferably 15 for a reversal. The Williams, or the indicator on the bottom of the chart is still very much in overbought territory. When it hits the bottom of its range, then things will rise. The Aroon, or the top indicator hasn't crossed yet. With all of this put together and looking at its weak product line that is showing no innovation, (Introduce the I Holophone and things will be 2007-8 again, Mr. Cook) I expect this stock to fall to 102.5 barring any news in the space of 1-2 weeks.

More later today,

Tradinginsider

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GOOG Forecast

Its interesting forecasting individual blue chip stocks. Not only am I forecasting the stock, it gives me an extra set of eyes on what the market is going to do as well. Almost like the tail wagging the dog. Seeing these blue chips are so ingrained with the ETFs it really gives some extra perspective.
It looks like we are going to be blowing off some steam for about a week, at least according to the Google chart:

As you can see, multiple indicators are telling me things. The Aroon is an excellent indicator that is more predictive in nature. As a matter of fact, if you as a trader have been seeing all those ads online about the stock system where you will only make money if you just buy and sell at the crossover X is actually using a variant of this Aroon indicator. As you can see, it is easy to draw forwards and figure out when the lines are going to cross. Then you go foward in time on the candle chart and bring the X axis on down to the Y axis ( the candlestick chart itself) and right at that point is your red X, or when the stock should start climbing again. I needed more affirmation on that, so I used the ADX with DI+ and DI-, and the Williams %R. The ADX, or the indicator right under the candlestick charts shows that the reversal is coming, the thick black line is on its way down and when it crosses at about 15, a reversal happens. In this case the reversal would be up. The Williams is still telling us things are not quite yet in buy territory.
In looking at this, I can see the background of things, much like the Matrix. The market running behind this bluechip is really a good part of the forces that are shaping this chart. So I can say with a good measure of confindence that we are going to slip for about another week, week and 2 days.

Plan your trading accordingly. Remember, later today, Ill tell the Ron the Bus Driver story.
Tradinginsider

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As of right now...

As of right now, the charts say that tomorrow is going to be another down day. 
So you may be asking yourself, why did this guy not see that today would be a down day and already be in with puts last night before trading day close?
Answer: Because I was emotionally compromised. Thats the simple truth. I was pissed off that I had to exit my puts with no profit and it started to get in my head and I didnt want it to happen again today.
Of course, now that I've cooled down and have the benefit of hindsight, I would have done something different. The charts last night before close were flashing continuation candles, that is telling me there would be more selling the next day. What I did wrong was a nice lesson. You have to learn to trade like a machine because emotions will mess with your head like a little brother messing up your science project while you are trying to build it at the table.
Case in point: I was 18 and making something out of clay for art class at the table downstairs in our basement. I had a big hunk of clay on the edge of the table and other pieces of clay I was trying to mold into something like a dolphin. I was having trouble with sculpting in 3 dimensions. Unbeknownst to me my 10 year old brother was on the floor slithering towards the table on his stomach like a snake out of my line of sight, keeping the table between me and him. He went underneath the table and then reached around, grabbed the huge lump of clay and slammed it down on my balls. That put me on the floor holding myself as my brother laughed like a maniac. While it was a good one (kudos to brother) I did chase him around.
This is what its like when you trade with emotions. They mess with you like a 10 year old brother and will totally fuck up your trading. Wear a cup. Stay emotionless and do what you are supposed to do for your chosen system when you get the correct setup.

A bit later today I will have the charts on AAPL and GOOG up and I will discuss technically where they are going to be going next.

Tradinginsider

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I am going to have to clean up some past calls/puts

Im sitting here about to get in the car, and it hit me: you need to go over some past calls and puts. I still have some hanging out there from before the drop. Im sure unless any of them were puts they are worth nothing. But thats cool. I make so much money Ill just absorb them and the train will keep going like a gnat hit the windshield: so what.
Still it bugs me for the books sake. I like to know whats happening and where I stand. Plus, I still have to get in the car and drive for an hour and a half.
Later today I told you I would tell you the Ron the Bus Driver Story, but thats neither here nor there. I have to go upstairs, get my keys, then get in the car.


I'll be back,

Tradinginsider

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Exit AAPL

I decided to get most of my money back in case the market started to turn back and begin climbing out of the morning hole. So, Im out at 3.50, note the bid and the ask, my order didnt show up yet in last price:

Now I am going to back back in an hour and a half. I have to drive into town.

Tradinginsider

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Good Morning hold AAPL

Things are gonna bleed a little bit more, I want out of that option, and I will take even money. So we hold and watch this blow off a little bit more. Other than that, upset that I dumped both my DD puts yesterday, but happy I really didnt take a loss, either, just slightly on the SPY puts. Ill be back in about an hour and a half and we will see whats happening with the market and our options.

Tradinginsider

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