I dont see too much more up

In looking at the technicals, I dont see much more up, I think the market is making like a groundhog and is sticking its head out of the hole and looking around to see whats what. Lets look at the chart for SPY:

The williams %R does (the indicator right above) not have that much room to move up, the ratio between this indicators movement and the stocks position and movement shows there is not to much room to climb. The top indicator above the chart, the Aroon, itsnt too optimistic either. SPY is usually more tough with its predictions than the QQQ and is usually a good shadow etf to read when you really want the foundation of QQQ.
I dont think we have too much room to climb and recover with.
Just the same, we are going to sit things out and come back after lunch to see how things shake out.

Tradinginsider

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So far, right on script

With the exception of the dip in the morning, stocks are back up. But not high enough to exit our SPY calls. We wait to see what shakes out. In the meantime, I am going to look at a detailed tech shot of the QQQ to see what is going to happen, be right back.

Tradinginsider

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How I think things will go Tuesday

I've been watching things.

1. Lots of media attention and story coverage telling people not to freak out and this isn't the big one.
2. Lots of volatility yesterday as the market pulled the equivalent of stumbling around a dark room with a blindfold on
3. I think that China is going to lay more things on us. Like a currency or banking problem in the next several days
4. I see that the Asian markets are recovering today, so that is going to take a lot of panic off the table for the US stock market this morning.
5. A lot of people came home from work today/yesterday (day of 1000pt drop dow) and saw their portfolios and freaked out and have sell orders out there. Which are all going to be piled up at open and will execute via computers and cause a gap fade situation during the first 45 minutes of trading.
6. In other words, the market is going to open and dump stocks from overnight sell orders from freaked out people yesterday end of day traders. This will cause the market to initially drop.
7. Then if the Asian markets hold it together overnight, the value buyers are going to step in and start buying. This is going to cause the market to climb for a day or two. Then its going to start to waver. Basic crowd psychology. After the value buying and the little climb upwards, things are going to stall out. People will be wondering, "What is this market really made of? What is the foundation of this market that something could cause this much of a dip? Is this market really safe? What REALLY IS the underlying foundation of the global economy? Is China really slowing down its manufacturing and is its government trying to spackle this over by dumping in currency like we did in our country in 2008?
8. Then with the above market uncertainty, something is going to happen again with China. Round 2 with another market panic, or a bank panic. This is going to start another slide over here on our end. If its not China it will be some other global financial problem. Then a slide.
9. Then there will be the recovery and things will start to go foward marching upwards again.

Below is a representation via a chart of what I feel will happen:

Now remember, the above points depend on the Asian Markets holding it together for the rest of the night. Again...I think there will be an initial drop for about a half hour, then stocks will begin to pull up and will pull for a day or two upward, then there will be more panic and another drop, choppy consolidation, then a resume climb.
Should be an interesting day tomorrow. If there is a climb up, good. Ill exit SPY. If sideways, hold. If a huge drop tomorrow, we look for a bottom again, but this time we will wait until the end of the trading day for a clear candle signal.

Tradinginsider

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We hold SPY

The market is turning down a bit...we will hold our SPY double down. I dont think this is going to be a quick jump back up. More analysis on this towards 4pm central after market close.
I will have a post on the state of the market.

Tradinginsider

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GET OUT...exit QQQ calls same day profit

We are OUT of QQQ call option:

Looking more...I will fill out this post in a bit, moving quick now

Tradinginsider

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Double Down on SPY

Today we do a risky move. We DOUBLE down (twice our usual amount, as in 2 piles of money out of our 15-20 piles) on SPY. I already showed you the bottom candle signal on QQQ, but here is SPY chart:

And here is our in:

That is all for today, we will have an update on the state of the market this evening on this site. Today was a foreshock of the big one coming next year.

Tradinginsider

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