Watch list for this week 12/8 in the market

Monday we are going to be watching CCL. Carnival Cruise Lines has come back a bit from the bad news that all cruise lines were suffering from in the media last year and this quarter the analysts numbers look pretty good:

Seeing that there has been a few BIG surprises in the last 2 out of 4 quarters, people are going to hope and or expect that something will happen like that again. That puts some rocket fuel under this stock. Also, the Growth EST is pretty high in comparison to the Industry and especially the sector. This information alone tells us that there is probably a run up happening to this stocks earnings. Lets check that with this stocks chart:

There is our run up. We actually should have been in this last week, as you can see there was a lot of money to be made. However, I still see a bit of coin that can be still extracted from a continued climb. Further to the point, there was a bit of a gap up the other day and I would like a bit of a pullback to maximize the value of a option call...I want the option call to be flattened out a bit before I put money into it. Then when the stock continues to pull up, the option call will pump up again and make us more money. So if Monday or Tues the market blows off a bit of steam this stock too will drop a bit and that will be a great time to get in.
Speaking of the market, what is going to be happening this week? If you followed my last in depth post about the upcoming week QQQ here, it is my opinion that the market can still pull up for a week or so before there is a bit of a blowoff. There should be time this week to profit a bit on the upside, but I would not enter in any major decisions right now.

BAD: "I should invest my money in the market for the long term. Im going to raid some of my funds and put 30 grand into microsoft and park it and forget it"

GOOD: "After technical analysis I see that the market is due for a short term correction, so I am going to wait until it blows off steam before I park anything long term."

BAD:"Hey, Howard the Duck looks like a pretty good movie. I should rent that."

GOOD:" Hey, if I do the opposite of what the crowd does, Ill have an edge. Kind of like instead of emailing 100s of resumes out like everyone else does, contacting VITO in a company or cultivating people in my network which will place my in front of the crowd.

Putting anything in long now would be like buying a house with a sliding scale interest rate in late 2006, signing up for a IT tech school in early 1999, or going long in Enron in 2000. Just hold on to your britches. Ill tell you when to go long. Right now is the time to do some sniping.

Stay frosty my friends,
Mark

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QQQ In depth Forecast for 12/6

I have revised my last forecast after looking at the QQQ weekly. People look at the chart and decide that its time for the drop. I actually think that we may have a week or two before that occurs. Why is this? The underlying foundation. Lets take a look at the Weekly QQQ that our day by day cubes are based on:

First, lets take a look at the ADX indicator at the bottom. You can see that each time the ADX has peaked (circle marking those two times) look at its corresponding position on the daily candlestick chart right above it by drawing a line directly up above it with a ruler. Every time it peaked, there was a sudden change in direction. This shows that we may have another week or so of chop or slight climbing to the upside. The macd is about a week outside of top position as well.
The RSI definitely shows us that because of the divergence it is displaying, that there IS going to be an upcoming drop. Divergence is when the Rsi is going one way and the chart is going the other. The RSI is always the foundation of the thing, and the chart always eventually turns and once again follows the RSI. Now, we take a look at the daily QQQ:

So what we have here an immediate closer snapshot of the weeklys. The ADX is showing that due to its high point, a change in direction is imminent. Also, look at the volume on the bottom underneath the candlestick chart. Every time there is a drop in price, the volume starts to pick up. It even starts to broadcast that there is going to be a change in direction/drop because the volume starts to increase. When the stock is climbing, the volume drops. It shows that people are very into fear and greed. They fear when it drops, and they greedily want in at pullbacks. But no one wants to sell when it is climbing, so the volume drops. The MACD is at the top, and the RSI is doing something interesting as it scrapes along the ceiling. It shows that there is a bit more room for upward movement.

My READ: Based on the Weekly and the Daily, we got about another week or two before things fall apart and we start having some big down days. You can play around in the field for about another week but no long term moves. In all actuality, now is the time to buy a put on the QQQ at the money about 4 months out. Seeing that there will be a drop, I am going to purchase some March QQQ puts:

QQQ Mar 2015 109.000 put (QQQ150320P00109000)

 -OPR  Watchlist

5.63 0.00(0.00%) 3:49PM EST

Prev Close:	6.32
Open:	5.58
Bid:	5.50
Ask:	5.65
Strike:	109.00
Expire Date:	20-Mar-15

Day's Range:	5.58 - 5.63
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	82
Open Interest:	183

I got it about 1 more dollar up than its current price, because I feel that its going to rise a bit, chop for a few days, then drop. Thats all for today, come back this weekend for a watch list on some stocks for Monday.

Stay Frosty,
Mark

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QQQ Advisory Service begins....

GCO's options didn't look like they went below 2.30 today ( on the 80 Dec puts) so there was no action on that, even though I feel that this stock is going to fall after its earnings. We just got in too late, I tried to pull 48 hrs before earnings, I like to usually go three days out for the 3 day pump and drop.
Come on back later for some more pics.
Also, something that you guys should be interested in, today I am beginning my QQQ advisory service.

So today, we will be getting into a few QQQ puts. I should be posting again in about 4-5 hours from this post. I am actually pretty excited about this because its a great way to make some financial sense and earnings from the market. The cubes are more steady and reliable that individual stocks as it is a composite of a lot of stocks that are familiar so its workings are familiar and steady.

More tonight,
Mark

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GCO update

We skip GCO unless there is a gap fade later in the next two hours...it just fell 1% at open. Unless it comes back, we do nothing.

If it does wander back up, purchase the 80 dec puts.

GCO Dec 2014 80.000 put (GCO141220P00080000)

 -OPR  Watchlist

2.40 0.00(0.00%) Dec 3

Prev Close:	2.40
Open:	2.70
Bid:	0.20
Ask:	3.30
Strike:	80.00
Expire Date:	20-Dec-14

Day's Range:	2.40 - 2.70
Contract Range:	N/A - N/A
Volume:	30
Open Interest:	172

So to reiterate, if the bid and the ask above comes on down enough, so that you can get in this option at about 2.30-2.40, go ahead and purchase. if the bid and the ask remain high do nothing. As you can see above, the spread is a bit wide and undefined. Wait until things get a little clearer...if the stock fades back and comes back close to the price of 81 get in with the put. Other than that, we missed the train. It just plain opened too low. We will watch this during the day.

Mark

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Pick for 12/4-GCO

Today we take a look at GCO. GCO is a clothing apparel seller selling a wide range from hats to shoes from young adults to middle aged adults (Dockers).
 First, lets take a look at  the analysts expectations:

While the Growth est isnt as far into the red as I would like, the last 4 quarters point to there being a good chance of having a drop coming up this quarter. Look at the growth est again, there is a pretty big discrepency between that and the industry benchmark and the sector, so when things are near zero, I start to look at the ratio, and what happened on the chart the last two times it reported. Speaking of that, lets take a look at the chart;

I like that there is a coiled spring building here. And using my new set of rules, I am making a call to the downside based on the analysts observations. And there is one more thing from Zacks:

Will Genesco (GCO) Miss Earnings Estimates This Season?

By Zacks Equity Research12 hours ago

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Genesco Inc. (GCO) is slated to report its third-quarter fiscal 2015 results on Dec 5, before the opening bell. In the last quarter, the company had delivered a negative earnings surprise of 38.2%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors Influencing this Quarter

Genesco boasts a strategic advantage of operating through both, its brick and mortar, and its digital existence. The company’s constant omnichannel initiatives are expected to drive results in the quarter. However, Genesco has been delivering dismal results over the past two quarters. The last quarter was mainly impacted by lower-than-expected sales and gross margin at the Lids Sports Group segment. Further, we remain concerned about the company’s rising costs, which was also reflected by the increase in selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of sales in the previous quarter. Hence, we remain cautious of its performance this quarter.

Earnings Whispers?

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Genesco is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positiveEarnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. This is not the case here, as you will see below:

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is currently pegged at 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate both stand at $1.44.

Zacks Rank: Genesco carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions

So looks like we got a triple backed reason to purchase some puts on this at market open providing that there is not  a huge move in the morning. We would be looking EARLY to be purchasing puts at the money, I'm looking at the Dec 80's. I will be on early in the morning between 815am and 845am Chicago time with the actual order if it does trigger.

Stay Loose
Mark

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DLA new pick for Tuesday 12/2

The pick for Tuesday is DLA. Lets get right to it. First of all lets look at its analysts estimates:

You can see that the stock has a way low Growth estimate in relation to its industry benchmark and the Sector. The more of a disparity between the two, the more rock and roll to the downside when the stock finally reports. Also look at the last 4 quarters of earnings surprises vs estimates. In the red all 4 quarters and there was even a HUGE miss of -700%. Add all this up, and there is a pretty good chance that things are going to drop when it reports later in the week. There has been a decent run up as well:

Look at the steady peak of the RSI. Same thing with the MACD and the MACD is even starting to show signs of a drop. While there are no options for this stock, we are going to short it providing that there is not a drop tomorrow morning: Here is the standing order. If in the first hour of trading there is no drop and perhaps a bit of a climb ( the main thing is no drop) go ahead and short it and we will hold it until Friday or the following Monday. If on the other hand tomorrow there is a big sudden climb, that will be an indicator of insider trading activity and we then dont want to touch it.
So the bottom line is if the stock is still holding or slightly up, go ahead and short it. I will be logging on tomorrow at about 12pm chicago time as I will be attending a seminar in the morning. I see no news in the pipeline, so everything seems set.

Good Luck,
Mark

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