Without any big moves to be had this week, the NASDAQ continues its sideways wanderings:
I would wait until the new year starts before I got in the pool and started swimming around. Everyone is on vacation, and a lot of traders are done for the year. It would be kind of like hanging around at school while everyone is at home on christmas vacation. Volume is light, and the action is light. People have taken thier profits, and they are at home for the holidays.
I checked the bounce lists for the midday, and there wanst anything of note that we could profit on. Later this evening, I will compile a list of stocks that I feel will drop in the upcoming several days/beginning of next week.
Hey everyone, I hope you are enjoying the holidays. Just wanted everyone to know that I will be returning Monday the 29th with a review on the Nasdaq for the week.
Christmas or Festivus, or Kwanza, I hope that times with you and yours were great.
Next week, we are going to be looking at some stocks and some upcoming market moves.
And right now we are going to lean into the Santa Claus Profit taking rally and sell our QQQ calls.
We have a lot of liquidity here and we sell right between the bid and the ask, here we are out at 2.57. If you remember last week we got in at 2.35 and that leaves us with a nice little profit of 7%. I would expect that as the new year begins the market is going to flounder a bit, so thats why I got out now. Also in looking at the very narrow price action, its seems that the cubes are pressed up against the ceiling.
Happy Holidays everyone, and this will be the last post until next week.when you will come back to find a redesigned site. At the end of this post I will give you a beta screenshot of the new site, I am pretty excited. It offers more one page functionality with a lot of the vague functionality eliminated. It is way more straight forward and allows you to get the information you want and need quickly and concisely. It truely will be a portal to the market future allowing you to make some great coin.
But on to it: Your Christmas QQQ Christmas spread.
Here it is in a nutshell: I believe the #QQQ will wander up a bit then drop harder than the wander up. So with that in mind, my spread that I suggest will be a 3:1 money ratio: We are going to bet 1,000 with feb calls at the money and 3,000 on March puts just slightly out of the money in order to jump our profits. There will most likley be a lull after the first of the year right after a slight pull up then a drop. Seeing that our expiration dates are out there a bit, we will have time to be able to untilize this without any significant options erosion.
Where will the QQQ go from there into the year? Read my previous post here. Again according to my previous analysis I am seeing storm clouds on the horizon due to the fact that the MACD indicator's sine wave pattern is beginning to flatten out. As the #stockmarket drops, all stocks will follow accordingly.
So lets take a look at the QQQ weekly:
What is of interest here is a previous pattern that I believe will repeat to a fractional part: look back at the previous "graveyard" cross and you can see that there was further pull up past that. I believe the patttern will repeat somewhat yet tampted down by the post holiday doldrums and bills. The market will then drop a bit before resuming. We are going to profit both ways with our options.
So that is our QQQ Feb Option call, which will be the 1/3 option. So if you have 4 g, this is the 1g. Now for the other 3g, that will go to the put side (we are doing this on a 3:1 ratio) and here is our put:
This put has a bit more time on it, it expires in March.
As for our PETX short, hold it, its coming back down. Now as promised, here is my screenshot for the beta version of the 1045report.com:
I am incorporating elements that will provide value: I have recieved feedback that people are very interested in the QQQ and a future spotlight on the market particularly in the upcoming three days, and I will also have a few more revisions before this comes to the frontpage. I am also starting two funds. One fund will be the futures fund and the other fund will be a QQQ covered call fund.
Happy Holidays, I wish you and your family the best,
Mark
The QQQ has been chopping around as of late and the last two weeks have taken us on a ride. The downward drop has been a bit less severe than I had thought, and the bounce back has been sudden, which shows that the bulls are fighting with the bears.
But what will the outcome be for the week? How is one supposed to trade? Lets take a look.
First, lets look at the weekly chart of the QQQ which will show us the underlying mechanics of the market as it shows us what is going to happen in the next 2-3 weeks.
There is a strong tell in this chart, look at all the places I circled. Every circle shows that daily's trading pattern of a candlestick with a long tail on the bottom. This showed to be the bottom point of each pullback before the stock rose again in its upward trajectory. Currently this is where we are at, So now we know what the foundation of the QQQ is currently telling us and lets apply this knowledge to the daily chart, which is going to tell us what the QQQ is going to be doing over the next several days:
In looking at this chart we see a particular situation happening here. During the last dip last week, the RSI dropped all the way to the bottom of the indicator, yet the MACD did not...its kind of hanging near the top of its range.
What this does in seeing this, the weekly and putting it together with the daily chart gives us timing. We now know a couple of things:
1. The market is going to chop a bit, but overall its going to climb.
2. It however, is not going to climb that much and it is going to peak in 2-3 days then chop
3. From there it will attempt to ghost the cieling and then have a smaller correction as the MACD is compressing.
So how to trade this? Nothing long over 2-3 days. Dont short anything yet because there is going to be a bit more up coming over the next day or two. Pretty much at this point you might want to profit take over the next day or two and then pack it up and enjoy the holidays.
Happy Saturday, everyone. The following post is from my other blog, feedurnoggin. Enjoy.
RULES FOR SUCCESS
There are a few rules for success that you can use in order to further yourself. First I will simply list the rules, and then I will get into each of them in more detail. Its easy to be broke and have no money. Just do nothing. You'll have no money by default.
The three ways to make money are 1) Sell goods 2) Sell services or 3) Illegal activities. That's pretty much it. When you go to school and get a Masters in Business you are selling services, your services with your higher education. When you open a store or build motorcycles you are selling goods. When you are a pro basketball or football player you are selling a services...your pro abilities to your team. I remember standing in a store in the magazine section in the late 90's and Shaqille O'Neal was on the cover of Sports Illustrated smiling from ear to ear because he had just signed a 95 million dollar 5 year deal with the Lakers. I remember that I was pissed off because I thought to myself "What one man deserves this kind of money? Why should this guy be on easy street while the guy down the block from me has to break his ass and drive a truck 12 hours a day for almost nothing compared to what Shaq is making?" Then during the next 5 years the Lakers went on to win the world championships several times. Turns out that 95 million they invested in Shaq paid off to somewhere in the order of 500 million dollars plus with merchandising, box seats, T.V. revenue, etc. What it comes down to is this...the reason that Shaq got paid that kind of money was due to the fact that he is one of the only people on earth that can play basketball at that level. Can the trucker down the block play ball like that? Nope. Lots of other people can drive a truck but hardly anyone can play basketball like that. In the business world no person or company or organization will pay someone a salary without expecting to get 3-5 times or more money out of that person after they employ them. This goes for MBAs, Lawyers, Pro Sports players, Truck Drivers, Laborers, people working the counter at a sandwhich shop, etc. This is how your worth, or your salary is figured and set. Shaq is involved in mass media as the Lakers are a basketball team set on the national stage and there is big money to be made at an organization of this caliber in the NBA and added to the fact that there are very few players that can play at Shaqs level set his salary in the multi million dollar range. The guy making sandwiches at Subway makes about 7-8 bucks per hour because he makes on average 5-6 sandwiches per hour earning the company about 35-45 dollars an hour in revenue at the register. The $120,000 MBA can bring in a company $500,000 in contracts or value in business dealings and operations. Its pretty clear from reading the above the only real ways to increase your salary is specialization and/or education. Specialize, Specialize, Specialize. The more people that can do your job makes the job less valuable and thus lower paying. Anyone can make a sandwich or sweep a floor or clean out cages at the pet store. That's why 17 year olds usually are in these positions as they are not yet done with school and have no experience in the job market yet. Anyone with no education can go to truck driving school and start driving in 2-3 months. Its relatively easy. So there are a lot of truck drivers out there, and salaries aren't that high. Its not easy to get a book in IT computers and learn about Cisco routers and pass the tests. Thus if you do drive a truck you can go to the bookstore and get on of these 700 page books, study it, pass the tests, and then your salary will significantly rise as not many people are able to study a book like that and pass the tests in order to get into the IT field. You can then while working at the IT job continue your education and continue to pass more and more certifications and continue to further SPECIALIZE and therefore increase your salary. So if you feel you are stuck driving a truck, go to a bookstore and buy the entry level Cisco certification book and study it and pass it and take the first step at no longer driving a truck anymore for 12 hours a day. Instead you will now be working in an office for 8-9 hours a day sipping on coffee typing on a computer and working with people. And now for the specific rules.
Pick a field and stick with it. Success take time. If you keep jumping from field to field, the clock keeps starting over.
Get involved with something in Mass Media. Movies, Sports, Internet, TV, etc. Think Facebook, cast member of Friends, Quarterback on Pro team or something that gets you into the movies or the music industry. There is a backdoor shortcut that can get you into the movies or music business that I will expound upon below after this list.
Specialize, Specialize, Specialize. In any field you can further train for more specific jobs that are harder to get (because of the training) and therefore pay more money.
In today's day and age, anyone with a decent idea and a passion for it can start a business for almost nothing as long as they have a hard word ethic. The way to do this is using the internet and social media marketing. There is a book you can get called "Now is the Time to Crush it" By Gary Vanderchunk that I can't recommend highly enough. You will however, have to work like a maniac and spend time on it every day.
Be Persistent. The Guy who wrote Chicken Soup for the Soul and the Lady that wrote the Harry Potter books both got turned down by almost every publishing house that they went to with their book. This is common with old school media gatekeepers such as publishing houses. If you wrote 'War and Peace' they would turn it down. The answer is almost always no when you start out. Now because of persistence, both of these authors are multi-millionares and their books consistently sell out.
Now for the Particulars from the above list.
1. Get into a field and stick with it. Yes success takes time. And the time you put into your field actually translates to specialization via EXPERIENCE. I had a friend that sold boats: When he first started out he was living in some crappy basement apartment in his early 20s working for a guy making 10 dollars per hour selling boats. As time went on he gained experience and contacts that made him more valuable so he was attractive to another company that hired him on. Now he was making a draw, salary plus commission. Then after a few years of gaining even more experience and contacts he moved to another company. Within 8 years his salary went from 10 dollars an hour in a tiny apartment to 100,000 a year in a nice place with a nice car. What would happen if he kept jumping careers? He would not be gathering experience in his field or contacts, instead he would be constantly starting over.
2. Get everyone in America to pay you 50 cents...hey! Now you have 150 million dollars. This is the power of mass media and why rock stars and movie stars and Pro Athletes are so rich. This is why Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates are so rich. All these people are involved in Mass Media. Mass Media is a national outlet that is set up so that every person in America can engage and purchase thier product or services. Brad Pitt or Angelina Jolie come out with a movie that is marketed and commercialized on TV and commercial media. You and 10 million other people each pay 10 dollars to see it in the theater so that the movie studio takes in 100 million dollars and in turn pay Brad Pitt 10 million dollars. As you can see that being involved in Mass Media is nothing but leveraging huge numbers of people down to the few. Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates leveraged a single software program to millions and millions of people and reaped the benifits. A kid from Utah was just in the news. He went to his local library and checked out a book on IPhone programming. He then wrote a program app that became the most downloaded app for the IPhone over even 'Angry Birds'. Both Vin Diesel and Owen and Luke Wilson got into acting by using a back door method. They financed their own short films by maxing out their credit cards and submitted the short movie starring themselves to Sundance. They were both noticed and hired to do addtional acting work and then bacame major movie stars. Maybe you can go out to LA and find work in a movie studio and then start to do work as an extra. Or you can write an app for the Iphone thereby leveraging yourself to millions of Iphone users-each with the potential to pay you a dollar or two for your app program that they can download. Or do what I'm doing.....start a blog and advertise it, submit articles, slowly gain traffic and then use it as a launching pad for a speaking career and two books. It will take a lot of hard work, and this is the price for success. Unless of course, if you hit the lottery.
3. Specialize, Specialize, Specialize Once again I'm gonna use the IT thing as an example. Cisco certifications aren't easy. So a lot of people won't do it. So you can go to the bookstore and buy the entry level Cisco network associate book that's 600 pages thick. You pass all the exams on it and then redo your resume and put it out there. But you will have to actively call companies and follow up and not just lamely answer want ads in the paper or reply to headhunter ads. Get active and start calling companies BEFORE they put a want ad out in the paper. Once you start working and get some experience, specialize further and increase your worth to employers by getting certified in the next level up of Cisco. Suddenly your earnings will jump another 30,000+ per year. By the time you take the third level Cisco test, you can make upwards of 100,000 plus per year. Each level up the specialization mountain, the air gets rarer and rarer and there are fewer and fewer people available to do the increasingly difficult work. Thus the salaries jump up. Sweeping floors isn't specialization. Any ex con with a 6th grade education can do that. Brain surgeons are specialists as there is more schooling on top of a standard medical degree and they get paid. An anesthesiologist in my family makes 700,000 grand a year. Its a highly specialized job...too little and the person wakes up. Too much and you can cause brain damage and death. A lot riding on the training. Very specialized. I read about this one guy who in 2005 with the advent of wifi went from company to company and tested thier wifi security while sitting in his tricked out Corvette on the street outside the companies. He created a specialized little niche and went around that area of the United States testing companies security.
4. Idea+No Money+Passion+Patience+Using Social Media+Hardwork= $Right now I am going to refer you to a certain book written by Gary Vanderchunk, "Now is the time to Crush it" and you can pick it up at any Borders, Barnes and Noble or Amazon. It explains step by step how you can snowball a small idea to a big idea using social media like Digg, Facebook, Tumblr, and Twitter. Even something stupid like being a board game enthusiast can start to generate a sizeable income if you follow these steps he outlines. The best book I found on this subject.
5. Be Persistant When you just start your blog and you start advertising on it and you are pushing it out there using the social media networking and still no one is going to your site THAT REALLY SUCKS. You feel that its never going to happen. It takes time. What the test truly is is can you keep it up with no response at first until you hit the time where there is a response. Once your site gets noticed, suddenly there will be social network sharing and your traffic will begin the climb upward as well as your earnings. It will take time, but stay on it. Most blogs don't turn a profit for 2-3 years. Basically, for the first 3 years or so you will be doing your blog out of the joy of writing. If you get into doing a blog just for money, after 2-3 months of seeing 1-3 visitors a day showing up you are going to say screw it and stop. Ignore the stats at first. Also on Google look up how to increase traffic to my blog. Look that same thing up on YouTube. Take some notes, and bookmark some sites. Now get out there work hard and be successful. It's not going to come to you easy, and its not going to come to you free. There will be many frustrating days where you think that you should just throw in the towel, its clearly not working. Its the people that all experienced that one point and THEN KEPT GOING that were able to get further along and start to see the money rolling in. Stay the course and do not stop until you get what you want. Mark
Petx just had a prelim study come out that showed promising results for dog for arthritis. The drug hasnt gone through any FDA channels as of yet and still has to undergo the certification process. They dont expect the drug to hit the market until 2016, which translated means no money until 2016 and thats if the FDA tests it and clears it. The options spread on this stock suck, so we are just going to go right ahead and short this one.
Aratana Therapeutics, Inc. (PETX)
-NasdaqGM Watchlist
15.48 2.41(18.44%)12:59PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price
Lets take a look at a few sides of the QQQ: Point: Its starting to look like the Santa Clause rally is working its way up Wall Street following a very sharp correction in the first part of December, fueled by the cratering oil market and fears of another collapse of the Russian ruble, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, came across with precisely what the market was looking for. More upside follow through, or at least a decent day, tomorrow and we should be set for a typical (or even larger than average) Santa Claus Rally and higher highs by year end or early January.
Counterpoint: This was merely a correction. The QQQ as well as the rest of the market works in waves 80 percent of the time. Climb, pull back. Climb, and pull back, much like the wave on the beach. The other 20 percent of the time is non standard time when either the market is totally roaring with no brakes, or in a nose dive because of any report or external or internal event. Santa Clause rally? No, the market simply hit the bottom of its indicators and gapped up today jumping halfway back up its indicators in a single day:
And as for January? Just going by what the market did in previous years after Christmas is a pure asshole move, totally irresponsible. You have to read what is currently happening when you forecast, and that means paying attention not only to the technicals, but to the fundementals of the market including forecasts for upcoming reports, the global arena, and major commodities such as oil. Are we about to invade a country? Is there a disease rapidly spreading like there was in October? Etc. Point:At that point, if the momentum stalls, look for the January break. January has been prone to profit taking selloffs in recent years. After any January/February correction the rally should resume, carrying us to new heights in the first half of 2015. While low oil prices may be a drag on energy producer margins it is quite bullish for the rest of the economy, the consumer and the market. As for Russia, this is not 1998. The situation is more contained and Putin himself warned of $40 oil today. Russia has half a trillion dollars in currency reserves and tons of gold it can use if things get tougher there. And besides the writing has been on the wall for quite some time so economic woes in Russia are no surprise.
CounterPoint: If the market keeps dropping during december, its gonna go up in January, and vice versa. While historically there has been some profit taking during January, the market goes in cycles of waves on a beach. It just depends on what point its at in January. As for calling the market during the first half of 2015 Yahoo finance gets it wrong and here is why:
The underlying weakness of the market? A couple of reasons. First, the fed is artificially propping it up and has been since they have been pumping money in it since the crash of 08. Second, the fed is printing billions of dollars worth of paper a month not backed on anything such as gold trying to keep the value of the dollar up. Also our nations debt? Go look that up, its approaching 20 trillion dollars. And China owns a good part of that debt. As a matter of fact there are a few websites out there that claim that the market is going to crash in 2015-2016 with one of the biggest crashes we've ever had, a crash that will dwarf both 2008 and 1929. It wont be good, and you can read about there here. I think yahoo finance wants to paint you a rosy picture like its sometime in the 1990s and its not. Lots of underlying things lurking right under the surface of things. Things that are rigged, charged, and set to blow. Point: With the market up over 2% today across the board it looks like we have put in a higher low than October and formed a nice “W” bottom with the August, October and December lows this week. So it appears that seasonality, technical analysis, fundamentals and economics have all come together at the moment. Market forecasting is a difficult and hazardous endeavor, but somebody has to do it and it’s a tradition we do every year at this time. Counterpoint: Nice, light and airy. Kind of like wearing your old navy cap and gloves and scarf and wishing someone Merry Christmas. Well, F that noise, I live in the world of the real and I take a hard look at things as they come. Mark http://the1045report.com
The cubes have bounce back today after a vaugue bottom signal...however things have been complicated due to the sudden gap up:
That sudden gap up is the wild card as it just blew half way up the scale so that puts us in unknown territory.
But what this DOES do is make us take a look at our ETFs. So we are going to get out with decent coin.
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